Election 2016

Maxus · Post by **Maxus** » Sat Oct 08, 2016 9:24 pm

Chamomile wrote:
Josh_Kablack wrote:On third party candidates, protest votes and strategic voting:

I am an adult, old enough that I had to compromise my principles to vote for Gore over Nader -- and I live in a swing state, so my voting choice is pretty obvious this time around.

However the Electoral College is a thing -- and if I did not live in a swing state, the odds of my vote influencing the Presidential election would be so vanishingly small that it would quite possibly be more influential to "waste" my vote on a hopeless third party candidate in hopes of shifting the dialog and drawing attention to positions more aligned with my own viewpoint than that of either major party candidate.
I was kind of hopeful that Trump being Trump might convince some traditionally red states, like mine, to actually become battleground states, but traditionally red states loathe Clinton even more, so the map looks about the same as it always does. Given that my vote won't be counted anyway, I have seriously considered actually voting for the Giant Meteor, or maybe throwing a vote behind Gary Johnson even though I don't want him to win, just to register a protest vote against the system as it is. Either one would be more meaningful than voting for Hillary in a state that will never, ever give electoral votes to Hillary.

Nah, I thought about that last time, but the popular vote still matters a bit. Last election, I voted for Obama even though I'm in the reddest of red states (howdy from Alabama!), because that vote goes onto the tally of the popular vote. It helps give that extra bit of legitimacy. I imagine I'll vote for Hillary the same way this year.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:11 am

Is it just me, or did everything just explode? Politico is reporting that the RNC pulled Trump's funding and it looks like Mike Pence cancelled all of his future campaign events.

angelfromanotherpin · Post by **angelfromanotherpin** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:18 am

It's not just you. Looks like some critical threshold was passed.

Mechalich · Post by **Mechalich** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:19 am

It's also possible that some traditionally safe states could prove unexpectedly competitive, because of turnout. Trump has essentially no ground game and is relying on the RNC to do the heavy lifting for him. that puts him at a deficit to begin with, but if the RNC partially jumps ship following recent revelations (and if Trump embarrasses himself further at subsequent debates) he could end up underperforming his polls. It Trump's actual take is even 2 points less than what his polls indicate and the final tally was something like Clinton 49, Trump 42, Johnson 7, Others 2, Clinton might take home a number of unexpected states. Missouri, Indiana, South Carolina, and Georgia are all potentially 'close' states if Trump underperforms. Utah, also, due to the profound influence of Mormons, could potentially go to Clinton.

Also, even relative closeness can matter towards future elections. The closer a state happens to be in 2016 the more likely the DNC is to put in effort and try and find qualified candidates for down-ballot positions in 2018 and 2020. Taking advantage of Trump to get close in say, Texas, might encourage democrats to fight harder in that state, which matters for national changes down the road.

Maxus · Post by **Maxus** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 3:37 am

We can hope.

So we'll see how it goes and what else shows up. I know CNN has dug up Trump talking with Howard Stern (not that those were buried that deep). McCain has said he can't support Trump, supposedly Pence is considering bailing, who know.

My favorite quote so far has been from Ursula Vernon.

Ursula Vernon wrote:Oh, Pence. I'm as lapsed a Christian as ever there was, and even I know the devil doesn't show up wearing horns.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 4:38 am

I wonder what tomorrow's debate is going to look like. I'm betting "Bill Clinton is a rapist" comes up in the answer to the first question, doesn't matter what the question is. He doesn't exactly have anything left to lose, and he was retweeting Juanita Broaddrick once the shit hit the fan.

angelfromanotherpin · Post by **angelfromanotherpin** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:03 am

At this point I don't think I'd be surprised by anything. The bar keeps getting lower, and Trump just keeps limboing under it. His recent trouble probably has him hitting the amphetamines extra hard, so it's entirely possible he just walks out on stage and has a psychotic break. I'm really disappointed to have other plans that night.

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:16 am

I'll be working, but I'm sure NPR will be broadcasting the debate so I can listen to it while delivering pizzas.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:33 am

The thing that's crazy about the whole thing is that Donald Trump said two other things that in any sane world would immediately disqualify you from the presidency that day. He said that black men who had been exonerated by DNA evidence should still be rotting in jail for a crime they factually did not commit because they were coerced into signing a confession by police. Also he advanced a conspiracy theory that Mexican immigrants were going to steal the election somehow with the help of Obama's control of the border agents.

Those two were awful and racist and insane. And if our society weren't hideously tolerant of evil racist insanity, those would have ended Trump's campaign then and there. But as is, you might not have even heard of them. Because Republicans are simply allowed to say awful racist things.

I'm actually not sure how Trump talking about how being a big TV star lets him get away with sexual assault is any worse or different than the things he already said and did. Was it really the profanity that put that over the top? If so, that's fucking pathetic. Still, as long as the Trumpocalypse is avoided, I'll take what I can get.

-Username17

angelfromanotherpin · Sun Oct 09, 2016 12:30 pm

FrankTrollman wrote:I'm actually not sure how Trump talking about how being a big TV star lets him get away with sexual assault is any worse or different than the things he already said and did. Was it really the profanity that put that over the top? If so, that's fucking pathetic.

I think it's more likely that the tipping point was one or more of: worsening chances of winning, worsening down-ticket drag effects, and worsening relations with the party apparatus in general. They just used this as an excuse because it was the next thing he did.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 1:31 pm

Yeah, the GOP obviously doesn't give a fuck about anything Donald Trump says or does to vaginas, and that includes sexual assault or bragging about sexual assault. They care that his standing in the polls has collapsed, that he remains combative with his own campaign and refuses to do any real prep, and that the mock Town Hall he did Thursday as a sort of trial run for the second debate was a total clusterfuck of incoherent rambling during which he slammed a down ballot Republican by name for failing to support him. This scandal is just an opportunity to cut their losses and divert their resources elsewhere while looking vaguely justiifed in doing so, as opposed to doing it seemingly out of nowhere and having everyone call "Bullshit! Don't you know that once you unskew the polls Trump is actually winning?"

erik · Post by **erik** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 4:24 pm

The scary possibility is that trump drops out and Pence becomes top slot. Pence could get support from all those who disavowed trump and if he got trumps endorsement as a way too stop Clinton, then President Pence could be a real dirty word.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 4:28 pm

Trump isn't going to drop out. Even if he did, Pence doesn't automatically move to the top of the ticket. Even if the RNC convenes quickly and makes Pence their candidate, it's too late for Pence to get on the ballot in every state.

Mechalich · Post by **Mechalich** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 5:50 pm

The remarks about sexual assault matter because of who they offend specifically: suburban white women who lean republican.

Trump can say anything he wants about black people because black people don't vote republican and the white people who do vote republican don't care about issues that matter to the black community (or are racial insensitive themselves). The same thing is true of the Hispanic/Latino community, it doesn't vote republican (and in fact mostly doesn't vote at all) and isn't open to persuasion.

The sexual assault comments are particularly offensive to a group that republicans in general and Trump specifically need to win: middle class whites who are either women or men who sufficiently moralist to get offended in a paternalist 'not my daughter' sort of way. Those people are part of the traditional republican base but not, necessarily the Trumpist base, and this is also the demographic that all those republican officer holders actually belong to. The sexual assault comments matter because of the demographics: they are a gut punch to the group directly to the group that was already marginal.

Kaelik · Post by **Kaelik** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:22 pm

Apparently someone on the apprentice staff for seasons 1 and 2 tweeted that there's a lot worse on those tapes, and if someone pays the 5 million penalty fee, we can all hear Trump say the N word.

erik · Post by **erik** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:53 pm

Ancient History wrote:Trump isn't going to drop out. Even if he did, Pence doesn't automatically move to the top of the ticket. Even if the RNC convenes quickly and makes Pence their candidate, it's too late for Pence to get on the ballot in every state.

I didn't think it was automatic but I don't think it is impossible either. So long as the states he can win are the ones he gets on then that may be enough.

Maxus · Post by **Maxus** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 6:55 pm

Kaelik wrote:Apparently someone on the apprentice staff for seasons 1 and 2 tweeted that there's a lot worse on those tapes, and if someone pays the 5 million penalty fee, we can all hear Trump say the N word.

I'd put fifty bucks in on it.

Whipstitch · Post by **Whipstitch** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 7:45 pm

If I cut down my tequila budget I could spare a few hundred and also probably one kidney.

Hiram McDaniels · Post by **Hiram McDaniels** » Sun Oct 09, 2016 11:25 pm

Ancient History wrote:Trump isn't going to drop out. Even if he did, Pence doesn't automatically move to the top of the ticket. Even if the RNC convenes quickly and makes Pence their candidate, it's too late for Pence to get on the ballot in every state.

You mean the Republicans might be forced to carry this thing to term? Oh man, what's that like?

maglag · Post by **maglag** » Mon Oct 10, 2016 12:19 am

Mechalich wrote:The remarks about sexual assault matter because of who they offend specifically: suburban white women who lean republican.

Trump can say anything he wants about black people because black people don't vote republican and the white people who do vote republican don't care about issues that matter to the black community (or are racial insensitive themselves). The same thing is true of the Hispanic/Latino community, it doesn't vote republican (and in fact mostly doesn't vote at all) and isn't open to persuasion.

The sexual assault comments are particularly offensive to a group that republicans in general and Trump specifically need to win: middle class whites who are either women or men who sufficiently moralist to get offended in a paternalist 'not my daughter' sort of way. Those people are part of the traditional republican base but not, necessarily the Trumpist base, and this is also the demographic that all those republican officer holders actually belong to. The sexual assault comments matter because of the demographics: they are a gut punch to the group directly to the group that was already marginal.

QFT!

Plus I bet even a significant amount of non-moral white men would get pissed off at Trump basically saying he's gonna assault their property white wifes.

angelfromanotherpin · Post by **angelfromanotherpin** » Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:01 am

Well, I did not expect him to openly threaten her with imprisonment if he wins, but I am not actually surprised.

Kaelik · Post by **Kaelik** » Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:08 am

angelfromanotherpin wrote:Well, I did not expect him to openly threaten her with imprisonment if he wins, but I am not actually surprised.

Every time Trump speaks, I laugh.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Mon Oct 10, 2016 2:14 am

angelfromanotherpin wrote:Well, I did not expect him to openly threaten her with imprisonment if he wins, but I am not actually surprised.

Typical Trump, really. Blustering and threatening legal consequences is how rich people intimidate less-rich-people. Doesn't work in politics, though.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Mon Oct 10, 2016 6:49 am

That was honestly kind of a boring debate, compared to my expectations. I mean, other than the jail thing.

You'll be in jail. I'll build it. I build the best jails. Mexico will pay for it.

Kaelik · Post by **Kaelik** » Mon Oct 10, 2016 7:02 am

DSMatticus wrote:That was honestly kind of a boring debate, compared to my expectations. I mean, other than the jail thing.

You'll be in jail. I'll build it. I build the best jails. Mexico will pay for it.

He'd make Hillary Clinton build the jail. Also he'd make her recommend a special prosecutor.