The Gaming Den

ishy wrote:When you hear the first one, it uses splats and rules most people don't know, don't care about and will probably never play with. And it sounds awesome too.

And many people when they hear of the wizard spell list they make the assumption that wizards can only cast those spells. Most don't bother reading the rules, they just assume it works like that. And they don't like it when you point out that they are wrong.

But the thing is that they even continue to do that after having read the rules on manipulate form and copying scrolls to a spellbook.

[edit] I think I know now what it is: The manipulate form interpretation is so over the top that nobody is ever gonna use it in any game anyway, but the spellbook-thing is something which would be used in a lot of games.

What the fuck is up with glaives?

D&D, along with most medieval-type games that have big lists of weapons, goes with the correct historical definition of a polearm. This is also the definition put forward by Sailor Moon, so clearly it's what I'll go with, it's just a happy coincidence that it's the correct one.

I will forgive Games Workshop for making it a sword, given that in French it (now) means "sword", and it derived from gladius (a type of sword), even though the word glaive referred to a polearm even in France, when the weapon cropped up. It had a sword name in its roots, but didn't actually evolve from a sword due to some guy fucking up and making a really long grip. So if you study Latin or French, it's an easy enough mistake to make, and everyone over a certain age in Britain studied Latin and/or French.

But where the hell did the Bloons/Warcraft/Torchlight* get the idea of it being a giant shuriken/three scimitars joined at the hilt?

*Oddly enough, you can get a weapon called a glaive in Torchlight 2, and it's a polearm. But all special abilities that conjure up a mystic glaive (see: the Outlander) use the giant shuriken model.

Krull.

Suppose I am rolling 4d6, one of which explodes on a 6. How many rolls, on average, before I hit TN 20? What about 3d6, one exploder, TN 20? What about 5d6, one exploder, TN 20?

(I am not a math guy, so if I am being unclear or need to supply more info just ask.)

Game On,
fbmf

Only 6s explode?

Is there a limit of expoding dice? Ie, if you roll 6,6,6 (18) on 3d6, do you roll all three and add? Or just one?

Koumei wrote: But where the hell did the Bloons/Warcraft/Torchlight* get the idea of it being a giant shuriken/three scimitars joined at the hilt?

Because, not only is a ranged weapon, but it would deal 3d6 damage and have a better crit range.

deaddmwalking wrote:Only 6s explode?

Is there a limit of expoding dice? Ie, if you roll 6,6,6 (18) on 3d6, do you roll all three and add? Or just one?

Only sixes explode, and only one of the set is the exploder. It explodes indefinitely so long as you keep rolling sixes.

In your example, then, you currently have an 18 and reroll the exploder and add the result. If the result is a 6, you roll again, adding that result...so forth and so on.

Game On,
fbmf

Are we picking the best three or adding all 4 dice together?

-Username17

Adding all four.

Game On,
fbmf

OK, then let's consider the exploding die as a separate die from the other 3d6. What we get on the exploding die simply sets what we need to roll on the other 3d6 to hit our TN of 20.

Exploding Die Roll	3d6 roll needs
1	No Possible Roll
2	18
3	17+
4	16+
5	15+
7	13+
8	12+
9	11+
10	10+
11	9+
13	7+
14	6+
15	5+
16	4+
17+	Any Roll Will Do

Numbers 1-5 are each 1 in 6. Numbers 7-11 are each 1 in 36. Numbers 13-16 are 1 in 216. Numbers 17+ Are 1 in 108.

Everything left is just arithmetic.

-Username17

FrankTrollman wrote: Everything left is just arithmetic.

-Username17

Yes, I get that, but I don't know enough about statistics to know what math needs to be done.

Game On,
fbmf

Copy Frank's table into a spreadsheet, and then replace each entry in the table with the probability of that result. For the exploding die column, use the probabilities Frank gave at the bottom of his post. For the 3d6 column, use this tool to find the odds of rolling "X or more." Multiply across to create a third column. Sum that third column.

The process being used here is:
1) Find the probability that the exploding die will equal a given result.
2) Find what the 3d6 would have to roll to make that equal 20.
3) Find the probability of the 3d6 turning up that result or higher.
4) Multiply the probabilities from 1 and 3 together (odds that they will happen together)
5) Repeat 4 until the exploding die gets to 17+, because at that point the 3d6 auto-succeeds. Sum all the probabilities you've generated.

Probabilities look like this:

"On average" is a slightly loaded question, but with at least 6 rolls, it's more likely than not that you will roll at least 20.

fbmf wrote:Suppose I am rolling 4d6, one of which explodes on a 6. How many rolls, on average, before I hit TN 20? What about 3d6, one exploder, TN 20? What about 5d6, one exploder, TN 20?

(I am not a math guy, so if I am being unclear or need to supply more info just ask.)

Game On,
fbmf

assuming TN means you rolled a 20 without adding bonuses or anything but counted all the pips...

4d6 as many rolls as it takes to get all 5's without rolling a 6 since rolling a 6 means you only have 3 dice left which can equal 18 max, never 20.

3d6 never, the closet to come is 18 upon which all the dice explodes, or one does and you are left with 2 dice which cannot even add up to 20.

5d6 as many times as you can roll before rolling sizes upon which the dice explode and are gone. options are:
5,5,5,4,1
5,5,5,3,2
4,4,4,4,4

Shadzar, "exploding dice" doesn't mean the die explodes and you don't get it. It means that rolling a 6 adds 1d6+6 instead of just adding 6.

Shadzar's pinky fingers were tragically lost to exploding dice, perpetrated by a harsh DM who followed the dictates of the true faith and demanded that Shad's reflex save be rolled in time.

he was a hair slow off the mark, and paid the price for his laxness, as 2e demands.

And that's why shadzar never uses the shift key

...that explains so much and fits with what we know of him.

Ok, then shadzar has a secret alliance with Cpt. Caps.

Grek wrote:Shadzar, "exploding dice" doesn't mean the die explodes and you don't get it. It means that rolling a 6 adds 1d6+6 instead of just adding 6.

never heard that way before, and my exploding dice dont do that, they actually to explode. thus why i never roll the black set or d6s i have.


4d6:
6+6+5,1,1,1

like this, or does a second 6 stop the progress?

shadzar wrote: like this, or does a second 6 stop the progress?

That one actually depends on the system, and you generally do actually have to specify whether exploding dice continue to explode or not.

And to answer the original question ...

3d6 with one exploder hits 20+ 7.23% of the time, or once every 13.8 rolls.
4d6 with one exploder hits 20+ 20.9% of the time, or once every 4.78 rolls.
5d6 with one exploder hits 20+ 43.1% of the time, or once every 2.32 rolls.

@Shadzar, it's like you're rolling a varying number of white dice and one red one, on which is written "add 6 and roll again" in place of the 6.

For 4d6, you're 50%+ likely to get at least one hit after 3 rolls, and 95%+ likely after 13. That's ye olde LN(1-X)/LN(1-P), where X is the desired chance and P the probability per event for independent events. I don't know why @fectin thinks it's 6 rolls.


EDIT: This is bullshit, ignore it.

Koumei wrote:

shadzar wrote: like this, or does a second 6 stop the progress?

That one actually depends on the system, and you generally do actually have to specify whether exploding dice continue to explode or not.

so based on this...

fbmf wrote:Only sixes explode, and only one of the set is the exploder. It explodes indefinitely so long as you keep rolling sixes.

3d6+xd6 would be the 4d6 where the xd6 is the ONLY one that explodes and can do so infinitely?

so if the exploder (xd6) continues to roll a 3rd six, then odds are the set will fail as it will be over 20? 66.666% chance of getting >20

which would mean the exploder could only "6" twice...


3d6+xd6:
6+6+5,1,1,1

if the exploder can explode infinitely, then the chances of getting 20 exactly are infinitely small. or at least exponetially a minute portion of the possible outcomes.

what is the chance then of 1 specific d6 in a set of 4 to roll a 6, then again roll a 6, etc is what you have to work with.

1 in 6 chance the exploder will explode, since it requires no outside input from the other 3 dice. then to explode again makes in 1 in 6 chance or one sixth of a sixth, 1/36, then a 3rd 6 from it would be 1/216 chance that the exploder explodes 3 times and makes the lowest possible additive dice to be 21, and any other result on the other 3 will be >21.

for 3d6 the exploder can explode only twice again because 18+explosion+1+1 = 21 or up.

basically you would have to stop exploding before worrying with anything else, cause like in blackjack, one you go over your target, adding more will still result in failure.

5d6 still can only explode twice, because 18+(4)=22.

still assuming i am understanding TN 20 correctly to mean adding up to exactly 20 when all the pips are counted.

The target number was 20, so "any number greater than 19" is what I was going for.


Thank you all for your help.

Game On,
fbmf

tussock wrote: I don't know why @fectin thinks it's 6 rolls.

Dunno, dude. I did it stochasticly.

Edit: I double checked. It looks like your base probabilities are off.

Tussock's numbers look crazy high to me. 3d6 with one exploding die can't get 20+ unless that die explodes. So really, it's a lot like a one in six chance of getting a chance to roll 14+ on 3d6. A 14+ comes up only 16% of the time on 3d6, so before checking for a second explosion (only 1 in 36 rolls), you only get that 20+ 2.7% of the time (the same as your chances of getting 2 explosions on a single die). It doesn't get any better with the other numbers, considering that 4d6 with no exlosions gets a 20+ just 5.4% of the time, and he's claiming to get four times that based on getting a bonus on 1 in 4 rolls that are already guaranteed to not be super low? The fuck?

If you're adding up probabilities, and you're getting substantially better than a single 20+ for every 30 3d6 rolls, you're doing something horribly wrong. Tussock showed none of his work, so I can't tell you where he went wrong, but he obviously did.

-Username17