2024 Election Thread

[deaddmwalking]

It's been a month since it became clear that, barring any major health changes, 2024 would be another Trump versus Biden rematch. With months to go most polls tell us that voters just aren't tuned in or following things closely - which is totally normal. Since most voters know both candidates from 4 years ago there may be even less reason to tune in that normal.

What has been interesting in the news lately is a combination of younger voters being skeptical of voting for Biden, but an increasing share of older voters appearing to support Biden.

From PoliticoThe polls are suggesting a huge shift in the electorate. Are they right?

It’s a significant reversal from recent history: President Joe Biden is struggling with young voters but performing better than most Democrats with older ones.

NPR has an article that also investigates recent polling: Key voting groups are shifting in the race between Biden and Trump

In the four years since Biden took office, according to the NPR poll, white men with degrees have shifted another 24 points in Biden's favor, and he's gained another 19 with white women with degrees. It's a trend that Miringoff said he is seeing in the surveys Marist has conducted in various states as well.

It could be tough to bring some young voters back on board with so many upset over Gaza. In the survey, 61% of voters 18-29 said they disapprove of the job Biden is doing overall — and he has a lot of work to do to get Latinos even close to the level they supported him at four years ago.

FiveThirtyEight recently launched their Swing-O-Matic that lets you investigate what changes to the electorate by subcategory and turnout. If seniors swung toward Biden by +10 points, but younger voters swung toward Trump by +20 points but nothing else changed, Biden would win (That would be Trump winning seniors by +1 point instead of +11 points, and Biden winning young voters by 9 points instead of 29 points).

I think that appealing to younger voters as the core of your political message is critically important.

The New York Times has an article (free articles limited to non-subscribers, but should be available via incognito mode) How ‘All in the Family’ Explains Biden’s Strength Among Seniors

Warning - This article lists people who will be seniors on or before election day and it may make you feel old.

Yesterday’s hippies have become today’s seniors — and they’re still voting Democratic.

There are a number of articles of various types prognosticating about the election. Also at the New York Times, Simon Rosenberg (Democratic Strategist) shared his upbeat take on the election. Many Democrats Are Worried Trump Will Beat Biden. This One Isn’t.

Simon Rosenberg, a Democratic strategist and consultant, is pushing back against the Democratic doom and gloom.

I would like to be optimistic about a Democratic victory in November. I think the 4 years that Trump was president were the worst years of my entire life. I couldn't go a full day without my outrage meter exploding. And that was when Trump didn't have a plan. I fear what it would be like knowing his plan for organized revenge and an assault on our institutions is fully formed.

[Stahlseele]

You are expected to run a marathon.
Voting Trump means losing your left leg.
Voting Biden means losing your right leg.
They are both unfit for the position, but
you lot do not get to have that choice . .
Pretty sure that in the end they both will
do about 85 to 90% the same things as the
other would, even if for different reasons.

[erik]

You are expected to run a marathon.
Voting Trump means losing your left leg.
Voting Biden means losing your right leg.
They are both unfit for the position, but
you lot do not get to have that choice . .
Pretty sure that in the end they both will
do about 85 to 90% the same things as the
other would, even if for different reasons.

Wow. That's a lot of gibberish with an impressively total and utter lack of basis in reality. What a fucked up and stupid false equivalency.

Pick any issue or any governmental action and compare records. They are not remotely similar other than that they are both old white men.
Moving on.

Regarding the post topic, I do think our odds are much better than polling suggests because polling has become utter shit as people don't answer unknown numbers anymore, especially younger people, who tend to be democratic-leaning voters. And media outlets tend to push narratives that are most compelling to drive interest, such as a close race, so given their polling unreliability combined with a monetary motive to be inaccurate, it's hard to take their assessments seriously.

What will be taken seriously is that the Republican party continues to tie themselves to oppressing women and the backlash against their anti-contraceptive anti-women's rights attempts to rule women is going to be felt at the polls up and down ballots. The Republican party also has been pushing ever harder at going full nazi on trans people, which is a smaller demographic than people who care about women, but not to be underestimated in motivating voters to show up against them. I think there will be landslide in favor of democrats country-wide, but I'm still worried because if the improbable happens and Trump and Republicans seize power it will be unthinkably bad. For everyone. Because Biden and Trump victories are not remotely similar outcomes.

[Neo Phonelobster Prime]

Pick any issue

I pick Israel and migrants on the Mexican border.

Oops.

Look. Stahlseeles post WAS lazy haiku slush nonsense and almost certainly was made in total ignorance of actual differences between the candidates.

But no. You do NOT anymore get to say "pick ANY issue" it was never a great hill to die on and it keeps on shrinking substantially.

And in fact before I close out this post I will demonstrate by picking another issue.

Creeping fascism and being a threat to democracy. As demonstrated by the total all levels of state and media coordinated and violent fascist suppression of peaceful protesters.

Again. Oops, the fascists are already here and however fascist Trump will certainly be, we (well not me we) ALREADY have brown shirt thugs beating their political opponents with impunity supported by law enforcement, the media, and the supposedly different on fascism and freedom current president.

So... STOP SAYING DIFFERENT ON ANY ISSUE. Even the lesser evil argument is tainted. All you are allowed to have now is to cherry pick the few relatively minor issues on which they still are different. Which is, frankly, not enough for you to any longer comfortably out argue a moron who knows nothing and writes almost exclusively in some sort of broken English haiku format you couldn't parody if you tried.