Lets Play - Can You Brexit?

[Thaluikhain]

‘The most immediate effect of coming out of the European Economic Area would be our external tariffs at the World Trade Organization. To start off we’d keep the same tariffs as the EU, of course.’

‘But we can drop them any time we like?’

‘As long as we drop them for everybody. That’s the “most favoured nation” rule – which really ought to be called the “no favoured nation” rule, but never mind. Where I was going with that was what about areas we’d like to protect but that aren’t currently covered by the EU rules? Those are cases where we’d like to raise tariffs. On certain vegetables, say.’

‘We might need to do that to placate the farmers when they learn they aren’t going to be getting EU subsidies any more.’

‘Ah, but see, we can’t. Raising tariffs is not nearly so simple as lowering them. If you raise tariffs on, I don’t know, artichokes, then under WTO rules you have to lower them for something else.’

‘Fine, we’ll lower them for oranges.’

‘A good solution, with only one drawback. Any of the hundred and sixty WTO members might raise an objection. Now repeat that for every single product we might want to protect. It’ll keep Barkwell’s department working weekends into the middle of the century.’

‘Perhaps he should have been careful what he wished for. Well, thanks, Alan. If I haven’t got my head around this yet then I’m never going to.’

666
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200

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For years EU nationals have come to live, work and study in Britain, just as British citizens have moved to Europe to work or – more often – enjoy their retirement. For better or worse, the future of those people has now been decided. History will judge the outcome.

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33

‘I don’t like it. Politics is not a game.’

There’s no answer, of course. It’s not that kind of conversation. But you sense an amused and gently chiding smile turned upon you from the unseen reaches of the infinite.

‘Also I made a promise. No general election before 2020.’

Still silence. You press your knuckles to your forehead and think.

‘I suppose I could make an appeal to unity, say that Parliament needs to come together behind Brexit the way the country is. It’s not true, but repeat it often enough and with absolute conviction and people will believe it. Well, You don’t need me to tell You about that, Lord.’

Continue to seek spiritual guidance.
Enough of this. God’s in His Heaven but you have a country to run.

(Assuming continuing to seek spiritual guidance)

177

Calling a general election is a big gamble. There are so many snares and pitfalls, it makes you feel like Christian in the Valley of the Shadow of Death. But you know you can trust God to give you wise counsel. He may have misled your predecessor about Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction, but you know He wouldn’t try that with you.

‘But how would I call a snap election?’
‘What about Scotland? We’ll win no votes there.’
‘At least I can forget about Labour.’
‘The Liberal Democrats might be a force to reckon with. They’re campaigning hard for Remain.’

[Darth Rabbitt]

Check how to call a snap election. No point in figuring out how to win voting blocs until we know that that there will be a vote.

[SGamerz]

Agreed

[Thaluikhain]

35

You know the answer to that without any advice from on high. The Fixed-Term Parliaments Act of 2011 sets a period of five years between elections.

There are two ways an election can be triggered before the five years are up. The first is if Parliament passes a motion of no confidence in the government. That just requires a simple majority. It would be so humiliating, though. You’d have to tell your own MPs to vote against your government. After saying that politics isn’t a game, you’d be gaming the system to the hilt. Just imagining the cartoons in the rebel press makes you cringe.

‘The other way is if two-thirds of the Commons agree to an election,’ you remind the Lord. ‘But Labour wouldn’t go along with that, would they?’

The Lord puts the answer in your heart. They just might. The Labour leader, Barry Scraggle, is obviously lukewarm at best about the EU. In his heart of hearts he’d like to abolish it and NATO and go into alliance with Russia.

Also, Labour’s leadership is rooted in the old internecine struggles of the 1980s, when their hard-left wing saw the real enemy not as the Conservatives but the centrist faction of their own party. They know that a general election might cut Labour down to the bare stubble, but they could see that as a marvellous opportunity to rebuild it as a party of hairy radicals in Lenin caps.

You know that God wouldn’t be callous enough to laugh at that thought, so you laugh for Him.

‘Is there any threat from Labour, or are they a spent force?’
‘The Liberal Democrats are campaigning hard for Remain. They could pick up a lot of seats.’
‘We’re wiped out in Scotland. No chance of gaining ground there.’
‘What do I stand to gain from calling a snap election, though?’
‘Amen, Lord. Your humble servant thanks You.’

[Darth Rabbitt]

Well, it sounds like we know Labour isn't a real threat.

Ask about Liberal Democrats. If we can get another question from the list after that, order of preference would be:
Scotland
Labour
What do I stand to gain?

We should probably hit up Dave Morris God for as much info as possible.

[SGamerz]

Sounds like a plan.

[Thaluikhain]

God gives you a moment of quiet contemplation, allowing you to see that you have nothing to fear from the Lib Dems. Even at the height of their popularity, with nearly a quarter of the vote, they won less than sixty seats. Of course, at the time it was painful having to go into coalition with them, having them put the brakes on the Conservative austerity program and so on.

But it turned out well in the end. People still blame the Lib Dems more than they blame your own party, and they were forced to drop their highly capable and articulate former leader in favour of bumbling evangelist Bob Fobber.

That thought gives you a moment’s pause. What if Fobber has his own conversations with the Almighty? But no – you’re sure he’d be put on hold, content to listen to twenty minutes of celestial harmonics before finally getting a recorded message from an angel.

So what of the Lib Dems under Fobber’s amateur-hour leadership? On current polling they might claw back a dozen seats, but not enough to be a serious threat. You can rest easy on that score.


O thou of little faith… springs to mind. Of course. Nearly four in ten Scots voted for Brexit. They can’t have been impressed by seeing Kirstin Pike get up the next day and invite EU nationals to come to Scotland in their thousands.

‘And you’re right, Lord. The SNP have made a right mess of their economy. They have almost a dozen constituencies where only a slight swing would give us a win. They’re not going to lose out to Labour, after all, but any Scotsman who’s worried about the threat of leaving the UK, or Scotland trying to stay in the EU via the back door, has no choice but to vote Conservative.’


Luckily Labour doesn’t know where to turn. Its young, educated, metropolitan voters are for Remain, but to avoid losing the dependable old working class vote the party has had to get behind Brexit. As long as Labour let you take the lead there, surely they’re going to keep dropping in the polls faster than Icarus on a sunny day. Or perhaps you should say Lucifer after his rebellion.

The Almighty puts a thought in your head. Scraggle will try to turn the debate to issues where Labour is on stronger ground. The NHS, schools, public services, and other Trotskyite notions. No chance – the next election will be about one thing only. Brexit.

‘Citizens of nowhere!’ you cry aloud. ‘Bring me my chariot of fire.’

Wilkins looks around the door. ‘Prime Minister?’

‘Get out. Can’t you see I’m praying?’

Wilkins tiptoes out and quietly pulls the door to, in much the same way as you foresee Barry Scraggle departing after the next election. Gone without a trace. Not even a ripple on the political consciousness. Or perhaps that’s unfair. You will remember him kindly for one thing, at least – consigning his party to a couple of decades in limbo. And you have that assurance on the very highest authority.

(Normally you can go to any question from any other, but oddly, not to "What do I have to gain?")

666
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200


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705
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Your briefing on post-Brexit security and defence issues comes from an unorthodox but highly qualified source. If the box above is not highlighted, highlight it now and...

Before you get a chance for an in-depth briefing on defence, you’re whisked off on another regional outing. This time it’s a drive out to the middle of the Kent marshes to be photographed next to an old coastal fortress, presumably to convey an impression of Britain standing in dignified isolation against the envy of less happy lands. It seems like every day you’re having to go somewhere and reassure frightened people that Brexit isn’t going to change their lives. Even though that’s exactly what it’s going to do.

‘Slough Fort,’ you say, gazing at the ruin with distaste. ‘I was expecting better than this. It’s not even in Slough, unless they were thinking of Bunyan’s slough of despond.’

You turn your gaze across a bleak expanse of sand and windflattened grass, where sky and land and sea merge in a migraineinducing blister of colourless light. The clouds threaten rain, which is no doubt why your advisers are now in a huddle with the TV cameramen. To come all this way and not even get a photo-op. The only thing that slightly warms your heart is the thought that you’ll be able to sack a few people when you get back to Number 10.

Your protection officer stands a little way off. What’s this one called? They’re all the same. Burly, raw-faced men dressed with the professional care of undertakers. No, better to say estate agents – less of an ominous connotation.

You nod to him. ‘We’ll give it another ten minutes, see if the rain holds off.’

He scans the heavens with an Easter Island impassivity. ‘I think it’ll brighten up. I’m sorry you don’t care for the fort, Prime Minister.’ You give it another glance. Hard to see what use it would be in time of war. It could just as easily be an excavation of a Victorian public lavatory. ‘Why is it here? Do you know, McKay?’

A stab in the dark. The gleam of recognition in those thousandyard eyes says you guessed right.

‘Built to stop the French, Prime Minister. Back in the 1800s when they got uppity, and somebody realized there wasn’t much to deter them from sailing up the Thames to attack London.’

That gives you an idea. You’re here to talk about UK security after Brexit, and right now your MoD adviser is busy working out light levels with the photographers. As a man with real military experience, maybe McKay can give you some pointers.

432

Your protection officer spent ten years in the Army before joining the Met’s special operations division. Some would say he only has boots on the ground experience, but to your way of thinking where’s the ‘only’? You’ve had your fill of being briefed by bespectacled experts with graphs who wouldn’t recognize an SA80 if they found it in their golf bag. What will you ask him?

‘What do you see as the military issues around Brexit?’
‘How about the implications for policing and counterterrorism?’
‘What’s with all the acronyms the security services use?’

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[SlyJohnny]

Military issues.

[Darth Rabbitt]

Yeah, military issues.

[Thaluikhain]

168

‘Funny, in a way,’ says McKay, with a smile that flickers like a match. ‘The EU lot are always banging on about wanting a proper military force, and how there’s all these conflicts they reckon they should be mucking in around the world. But it’s us that’s got the real experience, isn’t it? Teaching us to suck eggs, I reckon it is.’

A refreshing take, this. You consider what to ask his advice on.

‘Tell me about joint EU forces.’
‘What’s your opinion on the European Defence Agency?’
‘What about the military situation post-Brexit?’
’What do you see as the implications for policing and counter-terrorism?’
‘Can you explain why the EU has so many security and defence acronyms?’
‘That’s all. Thank you, McKay.’

(Suddenly we remember his name)

[SGamerz]

Ask about military situation post-Brexit.

[SlyJohnny]

Policing and counter terrorism after that.

[Darth Rabbitt]

Agreed on both counts.

[Thaluikhain]

‘I don’t see that the EU can afford to ice us out,’ says McKay. ‘But there are going to be some bumps in the road.’

‘Such as?’

He unfolds his massive hand and starts counting off points on his Havana-sized fingers. ‘Weapons, for starters. Planes and missiles and that are getting more expensive to design and make, and that takes a continent-wide budget and all the boffin skills to go with.’

‘We’ll just have to ramp up the armaments industry here in Britain.’

‘Still got the declining R&D budget to worry about, though. Got to hand it to the EU, science and tech is one thing it does well.’

‘Two things,’ you snap back. ‘What else?’

‘Well, we mostly get our weaponry from the US, and the drop in sterling is going to make that hurt. Maybe Windrip will mess up the American economy, though, in which case we might get a wholesale deal.’

‘Anything else?’

‘Trident’s an issue if Scotland splits off, eh? And there’s the refugee jungle at Calais. Will the French be happy to police our border once we’re out?’

‘The Le Touquet agreement is between us and France. It’s not an EU matter.’

He keeps that finger extended. ‘I suppose we’ll soon find out, Prime Minister.’

(And then Policing and Counter-Terrorism)

314

McKay nods soberly, glancing out over the flat, wind-scoured marshes as if searching for convicts escaped from a prison hulk.

‘The way I see it there are three things. Finding out who the criminals are, catching them, and shipping them to where they’ll face justice.’

OK so far. You could do with more briefings like this. Brief being the operative word. You give McKay an encouraging nod.

Warming to his subject, he goes on, ‘It’s actually the first and the last of those that’ll give us the most grief, I reckon.’

‘So not the policing itself?’
‘Finding out about criminals – you mean surveillance?’
‘So extradition will present us with a problem?’
‘Never mind security, let’s talk about defence.’
‘Enough chit-chat. I need to get back to London.’

[SGamerz]

Ask about surveillance, then defense of possible.

[Darth Rabbitt]

Agreed.

[Thaluikhain]

138

‘Our membership of 5 Eyes gives us an edge. We’re the only European nation in that particular club, so the EU needs us. Unless – ’

‘Unless what?’

‘The others, America and Canada and the Kiwis and Aussies, they might decide it needs to be 6 Eyes. Get an EU seat on the bench there. Let’s hope not, because we need the ace up the sleeve that gives us. See, we’ll be outside the European Court of Justice, won’t we?’

‘Of course. That’s the whole point.’

‘Right. But that means we’re not actually subject to EU data protection laws. Remember how the ECJ struck down the Safe Harbour agreement with the US on account of it gave a third country access to information covered by EU privacy laws? It’ll be like that.’

‘And data laws matter why?’

‘Tracking terrorists, getting intelligence from our spooks watching out for radicalization, and so forth. And the EU won’t let us get hold of information that might get passed on to the US, not now Windrip has been muttering about torturing suspects and killing terrorists’ families.’

‘Yes, the EU would inconveniently view those acts as criminal.’

‘Not just the EU. The Court of Human Rights too.’

You nod so emphatically that McKay takes a step back. ‘That’s why we’ll be getting out of that one too. All these rules. They make it impossible for us to defend ourselves.’

‘Anything else, Prime Minister?’ he asks nervously.

‘What about extradition?’
‘You say that day-to-day police cooperation shouldn’t give us any problems?’
‘Let me ask you something else.’

[Darth Rabbitt]

Extradition.

[SGamerz]

^That

[Thaluikhain]

773

‘We’ve got the European Arrest Warrant,’ says McKay. ‘That makes it really simple to extradite suspects to the state where they committed a crime. In the old days, the French might have made a stink if a court in London wanted a Parisian felon shipped over, say. Under the EAW it’s as straightforward as sending him up to Scotland.’

‘And you don’t think that can remain in place after Brexit?’

‘I don’t see how. It wouldn’t even be constitutional for many countries. They can send their nationals to another EU state’s court because that’s all under one roof, so to speak. Once we’re out the door we’re another country in their eyes.’ There’s a dim flicker of memory in his eyes and he glances again at the ruined Victorian fort. ‘Like the past.’

‘What about cooperation in tracking criminals and terrorists?’
‘How about international policing? Our cops and Europol, I mean.’
‘Let me ask you something else.’

(The criminals and terrorists one takes us back to the previous section, and "something else" takes us back to 432, a few sections back)

[SGamerz]

Go back and ask about the acronyms.

[Thaluikhain]

‘It’s quicker, isn’t it?’ says McKay. ‘By the time you’ve chewed your way through some of these department names, the red button’s pushed and we’re all on top of a mushroom cloud.’

‘Run me through some of them.’

‘Well, there’s CSDP. That’s the Common Security and Defence Policy of the EU. On the basis of that you’ve got SDIP, which is the Security and Defence Implementation Plan that’s being developed to decide how the EDA – European Defence Agency, obviously – should operate. They’d like there to be an OHQ, Operational Headquarters that is, to coordinate EU military missions, but we’ve always opposed that, and Poland, Lithuania and Latvia aren’t too keen on it either.’

‘Why?’

‘Well, just doing what NATO already does, isn’t it? Assuming President Windrip doesn’t put up a wall across the Atlantic too. On the policing side you’ve got SIS II – the Schengen Information System, second gen – that handles data about terrorist suspects, international criminals and so forth. The European Arrest Warrant – EAW to any man who types with one finger – is the protocol that allows quick extradition between member states.’

He pauses and looks off into the dazzling haze out to sea.

‘What is it, McKay?’

‘Just wondering if 5 Eyes counts as an acronym. No, I suppose not. Still, there’s enough there to keep those Brussels bureaucrats bending over the photocopier for years to come.’

(And then it's "military implications" and "policing and counter-terrorism", which we've already done, so back to London via sections 666 and 200 again. And we've gone through all the briefings, so on to actions)

250
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Running a country – it’s a lot to do. You’re just one person and you’ve only got two years, so decide which aspect of Brexit you’re going to oversee in person. You’ll only have time to deal with one of these; when you decide you’ll highlight the box at the top of this section to remember that you’ve done so. Your ministers will take care of the rest:

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[angelfromanotherpin]

Trade.

[SGamerz]

Trade.

[Thaluikhain]

688

This is it. The big one. The whole future trading relationship between Britain and our nearest, largest and most natural market will depend on the next round of talks. This is far too important for you to leave to those bunglers and blowhards in the Cabinet. You’re taking care of this in person.

Flanked by a small army of well-prepped negotiators, you face Alprèves and his team across a no-man’s-land of glass tabletop. As usual they look sleekly confident, but you’ve been assured by your Brexit ministers that the EU needs this deal more than Britain does. What was it Peter Strewel said as you were about to get on the plane? ‘We’ve got all the cards in this game, PM. Just be sure to deal from the bottom.’

Over the next few days, your aim is to hammer out the terms under which the EU and the UK will trade after March 2019. You have three existing models of trade relationships that you can choose between as templates.

The Norway model, much touted by the Brexit campaigners during the referendum but since disowned by fundamentalists, keeps Britain within the European Economic Area. As something close to associate membership, it requires some payments into R&D ventures but gives maximum benefit.

The Swiss model, outside the EEA but still in the single market, gives a little more freedom, at least in the form of being nominally able to opt out of free movement and EU standards legislation. In practice, of course, opting out would mean losing access to the market, but at least the choice is there.

Turkey is outside the single market but has a customs union with the EU. That means no tariffs on goods sold between the two, and gives Turkey the benefit of all trade deals negotiated by the EU – which naturally has far more clout than any individual country.

The downside of Turkey’s arrangement is that it only covers goods, while the vast majority of the UK’s trade is in services. Some have suggested rewinding the clock and getting Britain’s shipyards and foundries back to work like in the great days of Isambard Kingdom Brunel. But you don’t think the stovepipe hats and teenage prostitution would catch on, so on balance it would be preferable to draft a completely new free trade agreement with the EU. The fly in the ointment being that you had that and much more with full membership. What would a bespoke deal offer?

Aim for something like the Norway model.
Use Switzerland and the European Free Trade Association as your benchmarks.
Propose a customs union along the lines of Turkey’s agreement with the EU.
Set out guidelines for a completely new free trade agreement.