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Review: Shadowverse (Japanese Hearthstone)
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

So from what I have seen, Forestcraft might have gotten a little worse, but mostly it's become even more expensive. Forestcraft Aggro is like thirty thousand vials. The hit from no longer being able to reliably pull Roaches makes the Goblin Mage -> Roach plan unreliable enough that you're better off just playing good 1 and 2 drop creatures. So essentially you've traded Bronze Goblin Mages for Gold Elf Girl Lizas. Forrestcraft is now running six gold and legendary followers, and running three copies of all but one of them.

I think Forestcraft is the most expensive deck at this point. There might be a more expensive Control Swordcraft deck to be had somewhere, but I wouldn't bet on it.

-Frank
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Lord Mistborn
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PostPosted: Sun Mar 05, 2017 11:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

FrankTrollman wrote:
I think Forestcraft is the most expensive deck at this point. There might be a more expensive Control Swordcraft deck to be had somewhere, but I wouldn't bet on it.

-Frank

I would, sure Tempo Forest is gonna be around 30k vials, but the least expensive Control Sword lists tend clock in at around 35k. The serious lists can balloon to over 50k and contain as many as 14 legendary cards.

Anyway given that so many of us have gotten into the game what's the feeling of some kind of TGD Shadoverse tournament?


Last edited by Lord Mistborn on Sun Mar 05, 2017 11:53 pm; edited 1 time in total
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Looking over it a bit more, you are right. There are indeed competitive Control lists that cost more than Forestcraft. What there aren't is any other factions that cost so much to field an aggro or tempo deck. Bloodcraft decks want a gold Vania in their 2-drop slot, and Runecraft decks want a gold Levi in their 2-drop slot, but both factions use bronze cards for their other 2 drops. Forestcraft just uses gold Roaches and gold Elf Girls. And then backs it up with legendary 3 drops.

Another issue is that while the headline cost of a control deck is often 30 thousand or more, in most cases it gets there with a bunch of 1-ofs. And that means that you're much more likely to be able to field most of the deck with the random shit you got in packs. Forestcraft doesn't actually play many different cards, and you're going to have to forge most of them. I think the practical cost of a Forestcraft deck is probably still higher than the Control decks with a headline cost of 35k or more.

By the way, I mentioned a while ago that I was really surprised that no one seemed to have found a Havencraft deck that squashes the current meta because Havencraft attacks from such weird angles that it seems destined to have only ridiculously one-sided matchups. Thus, if you could find a list that was favored against a majority of the field, you could post up stupidly positive numbers. Well, it kinda looks like someone found one. Seraph with a bunch of ward creatures and healing plus some board clearance you can use on turn 5 and 6 to do well against Daria Rune and Roach. I can easily imagine a storm deck punching through that and wondering what the big deal was supposed to be, and I can easily see such a deck hated down by control lists running Odin if it ever gets too big. But right now I don't see that deck failing to put up positive win rates.

Meanwhile, Tempest of the Gods stuff. They started handing out Tempest of the Gods tickets for this month, so I'm saving my rupees. They've spoiled some of the cards. The Shadowverse page doesn't have shit, but they are Easy Enough to Find.

Forestcraft: Crystalia Aerin is absurd. But I honestly don't think Forestcraft really cares that much. I don't think it's good enough to make Control Forest a thing, and I don't think it displaces Cynthia or Tia. Randomly drawing one or two will probably be an OK addition to a Forest deck, which means it will be cheaper and easier to field something passable. Fairy Cage is meaningless and won't even see play in Purgatory Forest.

Swordcraft: As I understand it, Tristan doesn't get his fanfare when he comes back into play, so he isn't Mordekai for Royal Banner decks. I was really excited until I realized it's just one extra life and I'd rather have an Avant Blader. Captain Walfrid has a lot of impact on the board, but it's hard to imagine a sword deck that wants to start racing on turn 8.

Shadowcraft: Now we're talking. Goblin Zombie is an amazing shadow sink, and can often be a 4/5 on turn 3 that threatens to get bigger if your opponent doesn't kill it immediately. Necromancy Aggro fucking loves that card. Demonlord Eachtar is very powerful and often a one sided boardwipe on turn 7. Nephthys Shadow really wants a turn 7 wrath, but of course Nepthys very much does not want to run a 7 drop with no Last Words ability. So I'm not sure what the home is, but considering that it's often putting 13 power or more on the table on Turn 7 it seems very likely that it has one. Two very powerful Shadow sinks, and I suspect that there will be a lot of strong decks using Necromancy moving forward.

Runecraft: Halo Golem is not what Earthrite Runecraft needed or wanted and no one cares. Mutagenic Bolt is an insane card in Tempo Runecraft that can often just do 3 or 4 face damage to the opponent and clear out a game or be used as a mass debuff to let all your clay golems eat much bigger creatures and then pass the turn.

Dragoncraft: Venomous Pucewyrm is good if and only if Discard Dragon becomes good. Right now, Discard Dragon is pretty bad because there aren't enough madness cards to make it consistent. Wrath Drake probably has no home, because I don't think Dragoncraft is looking for a 5 mana solution to fairy/bloodkin spam.

Bloodcraft: Spiderweb Imp is terrible and has no home. Baphomet is awesome and will easily find a place as the third 2-Drop in Bloodcraft decks. For aggro decks you get a slightly underpowered 2 drop that makes you draw an extra card which is Mastema. For Control and Midrange decks you get to draw an extra card. The thing where you can enhance it by 3 to lower the cost of the card you draw by 3 adds mana flexibilty to the whole thing. If you topdeck Baphomet on an empty hand and can't play both it and your fatty on the same turn, you can still set 3 mana aside this turn to be paid into your fatty next turn.

Havencraft: So far they picked up nothing they would use. Havencraft wasn't exactly short on defensive 5 drops, and a 4/5 Ward with hexproof wouldn't be displacing anything even if it didn't have play restrictions. Heavenly Aegis might be a win condition for a Guardian Sun deck, but I feel weird even writing that down. Are Guardian Sun decks even a thing?

Neutral: Zeus is a perfectly reasonable 10 drop. His obvious home is Storm Ramp Dragon, but 5/10 Storm Bane Ward is actually a pretty great value play or finisher in almost every situation where you have 10 mana to spend. Most control or midrange decks would be happy to roll with a single Zeus. The Goblin Princess is a perfectly functional go-wide strategy all by herself and has obvious homes in any go-wide deck that isn't Swordcraft (Goblins are not Officers). It might actually be enough to make the Neutral deck be a thing, because Goblin Princess is the card that the Valkyrie Spear was always looking for.

Anyway, so far the winners are Shadowcraft and Bloodcraft, but the marketing seems to be hyping the Swordcraft and Havencraft angles. I don't know what that means.

-Frank
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Lord Mistborn
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Heavenly Aegis's "immune to all the things lol" also stops him from getting ward from Guardian Sun. But the fact that apparently there's no way to stop the bastard has a lot of people nervous. I'm not that worried, it's hard to imagine a deck that plans to win with Heavenly Aegis not having an abysmal matchup against the various combo-control decks.
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 06, 2017 12:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Lord Mistborn wrote:
Heavenly Aegis's "immune to all the things lol" also stops him from getting ward from Guardian Sun. But the fact that apparently there's no way to stop the bastard has a lot of people nervous. I'm not that worried, it's hard to imagine a deck that plans to win with Heavenly Aegis not having an abysmal matchup against the various combo-control decks.


I honestly have no idea how Heavenly Aegis's Immune to all the Things ability actually works. It's basically 9 for an 8/8 with Indestructible and Shroud, but I have no idea how that works on passives or Wraths or all the other shit that does things without specifically clicking on a dude. They elected to not make any new keywords and the translated explanations from Japanese do not make a lot of sense. Until we see it in play, we won't really know how it works.

That being said, if Guardian Sun gives it Ward, that's a Turn 9 combo win for a Guardian Sun deck that can only be stopped by burn effects. And... I don't think I care? Havencraft already has a turn 9 combo win on its plate, and that one just fucking wins the game outright. And one of the top archetypes is a burn deck that could seriously kill you right through an unkillable ward creature regardless. If it doesn't let you put Ward on that thing, then honestly I can't think of any use for it at all. There are no Havencraft archetypes that want a hard-to-kill beatdown creature that comes into play on turn 9. They can already play Incandescent Dragon, which is nearly as hard to kill and also gives you a lot of virtual Leader defense and protects your other creatures. But they don't play Incandescent Dragon, because Havencraft is not in the market for a beat down 9 drop without Storm.

-Frank
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Lord Mistborn
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Heavenly Aegis is unaffected by card effects that do not change it's stats. Dance is a card effect, Bahamut etb trigger is a card effect, even Odin is a card effect so they all don't work. Guardian Sun proc is also a card effect so it's not effected.

Given that this is the kind of card that only runs in a control shell the card is just too damn slow. You'd be dropping on turn 9 and then in an optimistic scenario it goes face on turn 10 and then again on turn 11 for the win. Essentially only the only slower wincon is Satan. The only thing it really has going for it is that unlike seraph you don't need any other slots in your deck dedicated to making it good, but if that really mattered you think you'd see some Seraph decks without accelerates because unaccelerated seraph is almost a fast and about as hard to interact with.


Last edited by Lord Mistborn on Tue Mar 07, 2017 1:20 am; edited 1 time in total
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 07, 2017 7:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

What counts as a card effect is not explained, because nothing else in the game has that wording. It's possible that any, all or none of the following could be usable to kill the Heavenly Aegis:

  • Themis' Decree (doesn't target)
  • Bane (non-damage combat result)
  • Medusa (non-damage pre-combat result)
  • Petrification (does turning into a 2/2 Clay Golem with no abilities count as changing its stats?)


The truth is that the scroll over text doesn't mean shit because it's a computer game and what actually matters is how it's programmed. The explanatory text which actually describes how the designers intend it to work is in Japanese, and the translation to English is tennuous. They elected to not create a key word to explain how its indestructible/shroud combo works for the new set. And "card effects" is not a previously established game term. It's possible that fanfare, last words, keyword abilities, or spell text are not "other card's abilities" and it's possible that all of those things are. We just don't know.

It's very possible that immune to all the things means literally all the things, with no way to interact with it in the game other than Elana's Prayer. Although I'd be pretty surprised if the "changing its stats" thing didn't imply that there are some -X/-X effects in Tempest that could kill it. But as you say, even if it really is immune to absolutely everything, I don't think there's a Havencraft deck that's looking for a beater to attack for 8 starting on turn 10.

Forestcraft makes a lot more sense to me now that I realize it's the pay-to-play deck. Aggro Forest costs 30 thousand vials, but almost everything is in the purchasable decks. After you spend 2000 crystals on buying the Elf cards three times you only need to come up with 2000 vials, and you can melt down the extras you get from buying it to get the Wind Gods you need. If you slap down 40 dollars on this game, you get to start with a top-meta Forestcraft deck with the rest of the decks being unlockable through card packs. Fair enough.

-Frank
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

So while there continue to be more English spoilers, there are also spoilers of different cards in other languages. Like these Korean Spoilers.

The Owl apparently is a 3/3 for 4 that is a 5/5 if you have 20 Neutral cards left in your deck when you play him. That's not actually good. Yes, the game pretty much never goes past turn 12 and that means that a deck without a lot of card draw can still pack some non-neutral removal spells and shit and always trigger that guy. But accepting a severe deckbuilding constraint in order to allow you to play a 5/5 for 4 isn't worth it.

The Sword Legendary Bishounen is a 3/4 officer for 4 that when he evolves reduces the cost of all commanders in your hand by 1. Also you can play him at enhance as a 4/5 with Rush that already has the cost reduction power. Obviously that's really good. But I think people are overvaluing it because of a thing I noticed when I was playing against a Phoenix Roost deck: cost reductions don't change Enhance costs. If you play Gawain on turn 6, rush attack, untap with him and attack again, the Albert in your hand will only cost 3 mana. But the Enhance Albert is still going to cost 9, because the power is "replace cost with 9 if you could afford it" not "pay four more if you could afford it." So you're not going to be pulling 10 face damage out of your ass on turn 7, and I expect a lot of Sword decks to completely fuck up their curves based on not knowing that.

The spell is a Runecraft spell that gives an allied follower +2/+2, costs 7, and is reduced in cost by spellboost. The obvious comparison is Blade Mage, because it's the same amount of power and toughness. You pay 1 more mana to put it on a spell that itself triggers spellboost rather than a follower that intrinsically has Storm. Advantages and disadvantages obviously, but I would rather play the spell than the dude. Some decks will play both and I won't say they are wrong.

Meanwhile, back on the English cards:

Storm Dragon picks up Phoenix Rider Aina, a 1/5 Storm that gets +1/+0 for each other follower in play when you play her. Sher's usually going to be a 4/5 Storm for 6, which is definitely a card that Storm Ramp Dragon wants. They also try to trick you with a 2/2 for 2 that gives Storm to another follower when he evolves iff you have Threshold. That sounds like a Stormramp card, but Stormramp is uninterested in high cost followers that don't already Storm, so it's just a trap.

Havencraft's second Legendary is Dark Jeane who is... a kind of OK Storm Haven/Elana's Prayer card? She hits the whole board for 2 damage and then she gives +2/+0 to all followers. Both sides. So there are situations where she wins you the game and situations where she loses you the game. And you choose when to use her or not, so as a one-of she's pretty OK in some decks that are looking for that sort of thing.

The big deal is Shadowcraft, because all their shit is stone cold awesome. The tiny soulcrusher is a 2/2 for 2 that kills an Evolved Follower for Necromancy 4. And Minthe of the Underworld is a 3/4 for 4 that sets all Necromancy costs to 0 for as long as she is in play. I don't think it applies to any cards you draw after she's on the table, but it's still stone cold insanity. She's a must-kill 3/4 for 4 that also sticks +2/+2 on your goblin Zombie for free. It's more stats than the Owl and if people don't kill it immediately you threaten to go crazy with 1 cost removal spells and 6/6 storm dragons and shit. The thing that really sets off lights for Shadowcraft is how all the cards they've spoiled so far are strong and fit into the same sort of Tempo-Necro deck.

-Frank
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 08, 2017 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

So the post-nerf meta analytics Are In. Chance of nerfs being withdrawn: Zero.

The meta position of Runecraft and Forestcraft have shrunk a lot. Runecraft is still the msot played specialty, but it's barely over 20%. Basically there are just over two Runecraft decks (most played) for every one Havencraft deck (least played). Forestcraft is now third from the bottom at about 1 deck in 8. The average played decks are Shadow and Dragon, with Sword and Rune played more, and Haven, Blood, and Forest played less.

There are enough scrub decks and off-meta decks floating around that there are positive win-rate decks in every specialty.

SpecialtyPositive Win Rate Decks
BloodAggro
Storm
DragonFace
Satan
Storm
StormRamp
ForestAggro
Roach
Rose
Silverbolt
HavenElana/Seraph
Seraph
Storm
RuneAggro
Daria
D-Shift/Daria
Purgatory
ShadowAggro
Combo
Nephthys
SwordAggro
Control
Face
Midrange
Untyped


Yes, seriously, the non-meta unclassifiable Swordcraft decks collectively have a positive win-rate. Which means I suspect there is actually a couple of brutally effective archetypes that haven't been recognized yet that are bringing up the win rates. The winningest deck is Silverbolt Forestcraft, which costs forty thousand vials, because Forestcraft is still the pay-to-win discipline even after being hit with the nerf hammer. The concept behind the Silver Bolt deck is that you fill your hand up with bullshit, play a White Wolf on turn 8, and slam it head first into something so it dies. Then on turn 9 you play 2 Silver Bolts for face damage and instantly win the game. It posts a win rate of 57%.

A thing I find interesting is that some decks win more when going first and some decks win more when going second. Control decks in general want to go second, as do all decks that rely heavily on evolution points. Decks like Shadowcraft that don't really give a shit about their evolution points would rather go first. I kind of expect something harsh is going to happen to Levi because the spread on win rate when going first or second for Daria/D-Shift is still over 11%. Based on the fact that Cygames has said explicitly that they don't want the opening die roll to be that influential on win rates, I would guess that the plan is to have the Evolution point nonsense nerfed again and to hand out some new powerful toys to Runecraft generally to keep their win rates from falling too fast. But they might be hoping to hate out evolution shenanigans with stuff like the Little Soulsquasher. If that's the plan, I doubt it will work. The decks that rely on evolution shenanigans get too much out of it, and the benefit is really big in the mirror. They don't all pick up 11+% in win rate by going second, but even Storm Blood picks up seven and a half percent (going from essentially even stevens going first to 58% wins).

-Frank
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 09, 2017 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

All in all, I can't say I'm much surprised by most of the standings. Discard Dragon is shit, which I was already well aware of based on how often I get my face beaten in with my Discard Dragon deck (that I will continue playing because I don't have the legendaries to play any other kind of Dragon). There are a couple of archetypes that I can't say I understand.

First of all, Shadowcraft Combo. I think that is all-in Deathly Tyrant - a deck that tries to lay down a 13/13 Storm creature by turn 7 by racing to 20 shadows and then nut punching the opponent. But I'm not 100% sure. Atomy and Nephthys are both "combo decks" but they seem to be listed separately. If that is what they mean by Combo Shadowcraft, then merry fucking christmas, because Minthe of the Underworld is going to make Deathly Tyrant decks a whole lot better.

Secondly, Storm Blood. I don't actually know what that is. I've looked online and saw some sort of mid-rangey Blood lists that didn't seem to have a lot in common. There aren't actually a lot of Blood cards that literally have Storm, although there are a lot of Bloodcraft cards that can do face damage on the turn they come into play by various means. Midrange Blood seems pretty decent to me, is there a reason it's called "Storm Blood"?

-Frank
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Josh_Kablack
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 11, 2017 2:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

So, any tips for sucking less at Take Two....?
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DSMatticus
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

The typical strategy for drafting is to understand that you aren't going to be able to put together a true aggro or true control deck, but neither is anyone else. The format demands too many concessions, and no one is going to end up with enough cheap, dangerous cards to reliably beat you down by turn 6 (unless you stick your thumbs up your ass and constantly hammer "end turn" with your face instead of playing the game), and no one is going to end up with enough control cards to reliably lockdown your side of the table. You should focus on card value and avoid gaps in your mana curve; you want to do something every turn, and you want it to be a high value action for the turn you're doing it on.

Haven, Shadow, and Sword are all considered to be good choices for take two. Haven's amulets provide absolutely insane value for their cost, but if the RNG is unkind you may end up with a deck that is too slow even for the inherently slower T2 format. Shadow and Sword tend to have cards with above average value across the whole range of costs, and also some really stellar rare draws that could potentially win you any game they show up in your hand.

EDIT: So, yeah. It's really just "wow, that's a good card. I think I'll take it," while trying to maintain a relatively balanced array of card costs, because it doesn't matter how good that 2-drop is it's not worth playing alone on turn 5.


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Yeah, Swordcraft can get kinda stupid. My last Take 2 Swords deck was an 0/8/6/5/5/3/2/1 curve that was mostly a shit ton of wards, Alwida's Command, Otohime, Dark Angel Olivia and Albert, Levin Saber. Playing Olivia on turn 9 and Albert on turn 10 felt kinda like I was pooping directly onto the dude's face. I fucking hate Castle in the Sky though. I get super butthurt every time I have to dodge that turd.
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

In T2 land, you are not going to be able to get a synergy deck together, because the card offers will fuck you and there's a few mandatory Neutral cards anyway. So specs that are inherently more synergy driven like Runecraft are inherently bad. Also, you get a weird mix of card offers, so having a spec with very good cards doesn't matter as much as having a spec with very few awful cards - so Forestcraft and Bloodcraft are bad in T2 because there are a lot of really shit cards in the spec, and the fact that both specs can make very high quality decks is irrelevant.

Swordcraft stands alone as being much better than other crafts in T2. If you want to win and it offers you Erika you should take her. Swordcraft constructed decks are basically goodstuff.dek to begin with, so a T2 deck can be pretty similar to Midrange Sword. Shadowcraft gets honorable mention as a deck that is full of decent value cards and can do well. Havencraft and Dragoncraft both have big undercosted stuff and you can ride those to victory - but they will sometimes offer or even force offer synergy pieces for decks that you will not be able to assemble.

Anyway, your goal is just to draft good cards and a relatively complete curve. Avoid reliance on combo pieces, because it's very likely that the other half of whatever combo you're thinking of will just never show up. The one exception to that is of course Swordcraft, because cards that demand officers and cards that demand commanders will both find enough friends because almost every card in your deck is going to be an officer or a commander.

---

In other news: looks like they changed the wording on Heavenly Aegis to be untargetable and undamageable. Which as I understand it, means that it dies to Themis and probably Bane - but also means that you can staple Ward onto it with Guardian Sun, making it a victory condition for Guardian Sun decks. Will Guardian Sun stop being such a terrible deck and start having a positive win rate? Not sure. Still probably not, but that's where Heavenly Aegis is intended to go. A lot of decks have literally no way to kill an undamageable, untargetable Ward creature, making that game over. Obviously, burn effects can bypass the Ward, and Bahamut or Nephthys can kill a big creature without targeting, but it's the end of the line against Albert or Roach.

-Frank
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I'm now thinking my take two problems weren't due to bad drafting so much as poor triage and not using redraws and evolution points to full effectiveness during games. At least now I'm starting to be able to identify where I went wrong in my losses
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Does anyone know where to get current meta deck lists?

shadowversegamepress.gg is missing a lot of decks that have positive win rates in the current meta. Like there's not even a single example of Storm Blood or Shadow Combo, despite those being solid positive winrate decks. And the official forums only have like one dude collecting actual tournament winners, which is such a tiny slice of the viable meta as to be essentially useless.

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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I browse the shadowverse reddit, sometimes they list the meta:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Shadowverse/comments/5bmaah/decklists_for_the_current_top_meta_decks/?ref=search_posts
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

OgreBattle wrote:
I browse the shadowverse reddit, sometimes they list the meta:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Shadowverse/comments/5bmaah/decklists_for_the_current_top_meta_decks/?ref=search_posts


See that's my problem with this. There are twenty four decks which factually have a positive win rate in the current meta. And that guy is listing ten decks. Over and above the fact that he's listing less than half as many decks as are posting positive win rates in the real world, the decks he does list don't include the best ones and even include some bad ones. He lists two Forestcraft decks, and neither of them are Silverbolt (the winningest deck in the format) and one of them is Purgatory Forestcraft (a meme deck that wins 46% of the time).

Right now we have computerized analytics that tell us which archetypes are factually good, but we don't have reliable decklists to tell you what those archetypes are actually using. The decklists are being compiled by people who genuinely don't seem to follow the numbers or have any real idea what is and isn't winning.

Now to an extent this is healthy for the game. The fact that getting accurate information about what is in the best decks is very difficult leaves us all room to innovate. If everyone knew what the best three decks were, everyone would play those decks and you'd have the same games over and over again.

You have something like that going on with Magic: the Gathering. The Standard format of the moment probably has about twelve to fifteen tier one archetypes available in it. But each week you only see two main decks at major tournaments. And the reason for that is that information of what the win rates and deck compositions from last week are available all over the world instantly. So when Jeskai Copycat wins a big tournament, everyone knows that's the deck to beat and people focus in on Mardu Vehicles to do it and the next week you have a big showing for Mardu and then everyone plays Green/Black. And then you have the ascendancy of four color Copycat and so on and so forth. There's definitely a tragedy of the commons thing going on, where the deck you're playing is going to be better if you can outsource more of the work perfecting it to other people, which you can if you play one of the popular decks. So there are a few decks that are way more mature than all the others, even though in abstract there's probably no particular reason that G/W Tokens or Mono-Black Aggro or whatever isn't a top deck instead.

But from the standpoint of someone who actually wants to field decks that don't suck, the difficulty in finding what the good archetypes actually look like is really annoying.

-Frank
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fectin
Prince


Joined: 01 Feb 2010
Posts: 3755

PostPosted: Mon Mar 13, 2017 11:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I've noticed a weird pattern, and it seems to be repeatable: cashing in more tickets at the same time consistently produces rarer draws in each pack.

I haven't played much, so my sample size is fairly small. But it's a big enough difference to be noticeable, and it seems to be reproducible going forward.

On the other hand, this is exactly how people get caught in magical thinking. So, has anyone else seen this behavior?
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Here's a fun target for Major Creation: hydrazine. One casting every six seconds at CL9 gives you a bit more than 40 liters per second, which is comparable to the flow rates of some small, but serious, rocket engines. Six items running at full blast through a well-engineered engine will put you, and something like 50 tons of cargo, into space. Alternatively, if you thrust sideways, you will briefly be a fireball screaming across the sky at mach 14 before you melt from atmospheric friction.
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Lord Mistborn
Duke


Joined: 12 Aug 2012
Posts: 1331

PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 2:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

fectin wrote:
I've noticed a weird pattern, and it seems to be repeatable: cashing in more tickets at the same time consistently produces rarer draws in each pack.

I haven't played much, so my sample size is fairly small. But it's a big enough difference to be noticeable, and it seems to be reproducible going forward.

On the other hand, this is exactly how people get caught in magical thinking. So, has anyone else seen this behavior?

It's probably just a psychological thing. If you open a bunch of packs obviously your're more likely to draw rares. Any when you open a lot of pack in succession you'll tend to go through the uninteresting packs faster and thus interesting ones will stand out more.
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Sereniel
NPC


Joined: 22 Jan 2012
Posts: 1

PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

FrankTrollman wrote:
Does anyone know where to get current meta deck lists?
-Frank

http://game-ai.jp/
https://shadowverse.gamewith.jp/

You can use a translator, but most is self explanatory.

fectin wrote:
I've noticed a weird pattern, and it seems to be repeatable: cashing in more tickets at the same time consistently produces rarer draws in each pack.

I haven't played much, so my sample size is fairly small. But it's a big enough difference to be noticeable, and it seems to be reproducible going forward.

On the other hand, this is exactly how people get caught in magical thinking. So, has anyone else seen this behavior?

No, that would be against japanese gacha law.
Companies are forced to reveal the "fishing rate" and not change it.


Last edited by Sereniel on Tue Mar 14, 2017 8:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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FrankTrollman
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Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 26783

PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Sereniel wrote:
FrankTrollman wrote:
Does anyone know where to get current meta deck lists?
-Frank

http://game-ai.jp/
https://shadowverse.gamewith.jp/

You can use a translator, but most is self explanatory.


I'm gonna say nope. I'm looking at the Bloodcraft decklist section, and while it does give me some aggro and some crontrol lists and a fricking Purgatory Blood list (less than forty percent winrate, do not play Purgatory Blood), it does not have a Storm Blood list.
There are 26 decks with a positive winrate, and the mapping of the decks which are actually good to the decks which are listed on sites (even Japanese sites) seems extremely bad. So if you open up Isabelle it will tell you about Daria Rune, D-Shift Rune, Dirt Midrange Rune, Dirt Control Rune, and Daria/D-Shift Hybrid Rune, and some of those are decks that win more than they lose. But the most winningest Runecraft deck is Aggro Rune, and those sites do not provide a list for that.

In related news, why is Face Dragon listed separately from Storm Dragon on the meta analytics? Aren't those literally just two words that mean the same thing?

-Frank
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Josh_Kablack
Prince


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 4860
Location: Online. duh

PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

FrankTrollman wrote:


In related news, why is Face Dragon listed separately from Storm Dragon on the meta analytics? Aren't those literally just two words that mean the same thing?

-Frank


Random Guess #1: Storm ______ is a deck that relies heavily on followers with the "Storm" ability while Face ______ is a deck that plans to do damage to the opponent fast -- there would definitely be significant overlap, but a "face" plan could involve burn spell or above curve followers without necessarily having any Storm cards.....

Random Guess #2: They people running the analytics don't mean what you think when they say words. Thus it's just jargon that cannot be unraveled without better mapping. The fact that Aggro Swordcraft and Face Swordcraft are also two different listings seems to support this....
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Last edited by Josh_Kablack on Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
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FrankTrollman
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Joined: 07 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Aggro and Face are definitely two different things. Aggro is a deck that puts stuff on the board early and often in order to finish the game in a small number of turns (ideally turn 6 or before). Face is a deck that directly attacks the enemy Face - usually with Storm creatures.

So a deck that is heavily invested in Alucard or Genesis Dragon could be a Storm/Face deck, but it would be very weird to see them in an Aggro build, because ideally an Aggro deck should have won or lost before such cards can even be played.

Except for fuck's sake some of the dumbfucks on gamepress are using Face to mean Aggro. And what the fuck are words you dumbfucks?!

-Frank
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Pixels
Knight


Joined: 14 Jun 2010
Posts: 356

PostPosted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

It might be term leakage from Hearthstone. Aggro and face are synonyms in that game - decks that aim for late game burst (Renolock with Leeroy, Aviana druids, etc) are usually control. They have to survive long enough to get to 9-10 mana (barring some miracle with Emperor), draw tons of cards to get their combo, and do just enough chip to bring the opponent into range.
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