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nockermensch
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

hyzmarca wrote:
May could potentially get a lot of concessions by playing atomic chicken. It would be a terrible idea that would completely destroy the UK's credibility, but if she expresses a willingness to burn down the entire continent with atomic hellfire if she does not get her way, then it's possible that the EU will back down due to not wanting to risk the consequences if it isn't a bluff.

May won't do that, because as insane as she is she's not that insane, but it remains the only way that the UK can actually get the deal that they want.

And then Germany will sigh and let UK know that by the NATO terms, UK would have to nuke itself if does something as stupid as crossing that line against other NATO countries. And France will just rattle their own nukes a bit and chuckle.

Or the entire EU will go "Oh, does that mean you're leaving NATO too? If that's so, remember us why do we have to take you seriously ever again."
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Mask_De_H
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Anyone stupid enough to bluff a NATO country with nukes while still being a NATO country would be stupid enough to use them, I reckon.

Also, Germans get really annoying when they start feeling they have European hegemony in their grasp. Like Americans when they feel near-global hegemony means everything they think and say is right for everyone else.
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hyzmarca
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

nockermensch wrote:
hyzmarca wrote:
May could potentially get a lot of concessions by playing atomic chicken. It would be a terrible idea that would completely destroy the UK's credibility, but if she expresses a willingness to burn down the entire continent with atomic hellfire if she does not get her way, then it's possible that the EU will back down due to not wanting to risk the consequences if it isn't a bluff.

May won't do that, because as insane as she is she's not that insane, but it remains the only way that the UK can actually get the deal that they want.

And then Germany will sigh and let UK know that by the NATO terms, UK would have to nuke itself if does something as stupid as crossing that line against other NATO countries. And France will just rattle their own nukes a bit and chuckle.

Or the entire EU will go "Oh, does that mean you're leaving NATO too? If that's so, remember us why do we have to take you seriously ever again."


Actually, the NATO treaty specifically acknowledges that wars between NATO members might happen, and lets other NATO members sit out or take sides as they see fit without abrogating the mutual defense requirements against non-members.

Greece and Turkey are both NATO members and they hate each others guys. They have, in fact, shot at each other over Cyprus. The rest of NATO just ignored it because it wasn't their problem.


Last edited by hyzmarca on Wed Jan 17, 2018 7:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
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zugschef
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Turkey wants to leave the NATO, btw. Wink
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Stahlseele
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

But aren't they still trying to get into the EU?
And does that not kinda sorta clash with each other?
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Stahlseele wrote:
But aren't they still trying to get into the EU?
And does that not kinda sorta clash with each other?


Erdogan is a fascist who is ideologically much closer to Putin than he is to anyone in Europe except Orban in Hungary. He envisions Turkey as a Muslim Turkish Fascist state, and as such he sees little benefit to containing Russia or expanding Western Democracy.

Turkey under Erdogan is more concerned with Kurdish nationalism than it is with containing Russia, and as such it is straight up opposed to the vision of the Middle East that most NATO states support. The idea of arming Kurds to fight fundamentalists in Syria is ass backwards. Erdogan wants to be arming fundamentalists to kill Kurds!

As for European status, Erdogan has walked that back a lot too. Erdogan wants access to European markets, because that is a lot of money. But he doesn't particularly want to adopt European rules and regulations or allow European oversight into his increasingly fraudulent electoral practices.

----

Anyway, the best discussion I've seen about where the Brexit negotiations are going is Here. Simon Wren-Lewis correctly points out that the UK's various petulant demands don't actually matter very much. What's key is what the EU actually wants. And it appears that what they want from Brexit is to continue to have common markets and open borders, while having the end result be clearly and obviously a bad one for the UK. And they are going to get that, because the EU has all the power in this negotiation.

-Frank
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zugschef
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I still think it will end with the UK having early elections and subsequently remaining in the EU (the new government can blame May and her bunch of looneys for everything) and losing all of its privileges compared to other members.
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Omegonthesane
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 2:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I don't see the UK losing its hard won privileges unless Brexit actually completely goes through, even if within the decade we're back in the EU - there isn't a price tag on "stop this madness while you still can" beyond what we've already lost in standing.
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As far as death and human misery goes, Tobacco is basically World War II grinding on forever with no real sign of stopping in our life times. Death camps and nuclear bombs and stuff are certainly dramatic, but public health crises are always and forever bigger than wars on the global scale.

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zugschef
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 4:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Omegonthesane wrote:
I don't see the UK losing its hard won privileges unless Brexit actually completely goes through, even if within the decade we're back in the EU - there isn't a price tag on "stop this madness while you still can" beyond what we've already lost in standing.

I really don't think that Germany and France would accept that. There will definitely be consequences way beyond the lost standing.
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Omegonthesane
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

zugschef wrote:
Omegonthesane wrote:
I don't see the UK losing its hard won privileges unless Brexit actually completely goes through, even if within the decade we're back in the EU - there isn't a price tag on "stop this madness while you still can" beyond what we've already lost in standing.

I really don't think that Germany and France would accept that. There will definitely be consequences way beyond the lost standing.

It is not in their best interests to make it any harder than necessary for the UK government to see sense. Nor was I under the impression that they can refuse the revocation of an article 50 declaration.

Of course if it becomes too late to revoke it and we instead have to rejoin, then we're totally losing all the shit we should never have had in the first place. But that's a different scenario to "we demand you must pay X additional tribute to do the thing we want you to do".
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Kaelik wrote:
Because powerful men get away with terrible shit, and even the public domain ones get ignored, and then, when the floodgates open, it turns out there was a goddam flood behind it.
FrankTrollman wrote:
As far as death and human misery goes, Tobacco is basically World War II grinding on forever with no real sign of stopping in our life times. Death camps and nuclear bombs and stuff are certainly dramatic, but public health crises are always and forever bigger than wars on the global scale.

FrankTrollman wrote:
White people are basically just horrible...The entire Reagan Revolution is just white people voting to destroy their own social safety nets because they'd rather fucking starve than let black people eat.



Zak S, Zak Smith, Dndwithpornstars, Zak Sabbath, Justin Bieber, shitmuffin


Last edited by Omegonthesane on Thu Jan 18, 2018 6:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Voss
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Omegonthesane wrote:
I don't see the UK losing its hard won privileges

Its what now?
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Voss wrote:
Omegonthesane wrote:
I don't see the UK losing its hard won privileges

Its what now?


The European Union has a number of weird exceptions to its rules that cover every country in it. I'm not sure there's actually a single rule that actually applies equally in every country.

The United Kingdom has fought very hard for various rules changes generally and exceptions to normal rules to apply specifically in the UK. Not all of them for the benefit of British citizens! Recall that a lot of the time the UK has had various Tory governments who have been arguing that they need to be able to kick their own working class in various ways not normally allowed. In any case, the UK has historically been one of the biggest countries in the EU, and so has gotten all or some of what it has asked for much of the time over the last 44 years.

With the UK having lost a lot of its stature and thoroughly pissed off much of Europe, it is inconceivable that the next few years won't involve various EU meetings and parliamentary sessions stripping various rules and exceptions that UK governments have fought for out of various regulations. But it also won't likely happen in one big ceremony of shaming and certainly won't happen as some sort of re-entrance price if the UK puts the breaks on Brexit.

-Frank
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rasmuswagner
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Most importantly, the UK is not on board with the program to distribute the downside of huge banks crashing because, surprise, that would require them to share some of the upside of having huge banks in the first place.

And the UK banking sector is bigger than the combined banking sector of the rest of the EU. The next banking crash is going to bomb the UK back to the Thatcher days.
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Stahlseele
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Why did the last crash not do that already?
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DSMatticus
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Banking crises don't kill economies, conservatives do. And even then it usually takes them quite a bit of hardwork and effort.

No, the last banking crisis did not ruin the UK, and neither will the next one. In fact, I'm reasonably sure that "nation is home to banks responsible for the crisis" correlates incredibly well with "nation handled the crisis the least worst." Though it is entirely possisble that the state of disruption thus caused would accelerate any post-Brexit trend of banks relocating away from the UK, because that sort of disruption makes abandoning the status quo less expensive, so if you're going to do it what better time? That's a long-term kick in the nuts, but immaterial to the short-term problem of recession wat do.

As long as the UK doesn't end up on the euro, the only thing to fear is fear itself tories. If they end up on the euro, then it's tories and Germany.
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zugschef
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 21, 2018 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Now their health care is reportedly about to break down.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2017/feb/20/nhs-at-breaking-point-according-to-british-medical-association
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Koumei
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

And it's basically the same story as happens with everything when the conservatives are in power: they deliberately underfund something to the point that it collapses, claim that's proof that it needs to be privatised, then sell it off to the highest bidder (or a low bidder who happens to be friends with them or they have shares in or whatever) and pat themselves on the back. And then it somehow manages to get even worse than it was when it had collapsed, and everyone else keeps paying for it.
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SlyJohnny
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Most of the dumbass pennies-on-the-pound NHS land selloffs (and subsequent expensive buybacks, in some cases) happened under labour, actually, so conservatives can't take all the blame for the NHS being broke.
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Omegonthesane
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

The Red Tories don't really much resemble the current policy platform that Labour stands for.
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Kaelik wrote:
Because powerful men get away with terrible shit, and even the public domain ones get ignored, and then, when the floodgates open, it turns out there was a goddam flood behind it.
FrankTrollman wrote:
As far as death and human misery goes, Tobacco is basically World War II grinding on forever with no real sign of stopping in our life times. Death camps and nuclear bombs and stuff are certainly dramatic, but public health crises are always and forever bigger than wars on the global scale.

FrankTrollman wrote:
White people are basically just horrible...The entire Reagan Revolution is just white people voting to destroy their own social safety nets because they'd rather fucking starve than let black people eat.



Zak S, Zak Smith, Dndwithpornstars, Zak Sabbath, Justin Bieber, shitmuffin
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Koumei
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Yes, New Labour (Blair and his ilk) was the greatest creation of Thatcher, and they're the ones still making noises about what Labour "should" be doing despite basically being why the Tories took the country in the first place. They really are conservatives under a different name. But that is generally part of the conservative playbook in every country.

Meanwhile the actual Labour party that exists right now wants to stop that shit from happening and put protections in place against further cases.
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Schleiermacher
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Edit: Sorry, wrong thread!

Last edited by Schleiermacher on Mon Jan 22, 2018 6:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Koumei
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Leaving the EU will cut all sorts of bureaucratic red tape! (Except for anything that involves crossing pass British territory in any way.)
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

So the Brexiteers continue to refuse to do any of the hard work of actually making a concrete set of proposals that might conceivably be agreed upon or rejected by the remaining countries of Europe. Instead, they have set a plan for running out the clock where a number of government ministers each come out and make a major speech and then we try to figure out what the Brexit plans are by reading tea leaves and analyzing the interpretive dance portions of their presentations.

The last speech was Boris Johnson's "Everyone has to unite behind the Brexit plan once I figure out what it is." And the latest speech is David Davis promising that post-Brexit UK is not going to be a Mad Max style world. I wish I was exaggerating there, but I'm seiously not.

We're still ultimately in the fantasy world in which the Brexiteers claim that they can make their own regulations and have Europe automatically recognize goods and services that are made under those different regulations as equivalent to ones made under European regulations. And that's false. It's simply obviously false.

Which brings us back to the whole problem where the UK produces less than half of its own food. We have yet to hear a single realistic or complete proposal for any part of the Brexit from fucking anybody ever. And as the clock continues to tick forward the inescapable reality is that if something isn't worked out we have interuptions in supply chains and empty shelves in grocery stores.

On that happy note, KFC ran out of chicken in the UK because of supply chain interuptions, and had to close 900 stores. It's just temporary, but we can expect this sort of thing to happen more and more frequently as long term supply contracts become more and more untennable due to the fact that no one knows what the rules are going to look like in 13 months.

-Frank
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Pariah Dog
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 21, 2018 6:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

As a former KFC employee, that makes me smile. Fuck that place. One I worked at stunk so bad I had to leave my shoes outside or I'd stink up the entire house. Also rather than walking back in the kitchen area, I could just push off a counter and slide to wherever I needed to be.
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