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maglag
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 4:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

MGuy wrote:
You would still have to pay for the parents maglag...


They will be watching over the immigrant children when they are not at school. Somebody has to do it. How much costs hiring somebody to cook and clean the house and wash the clothes and whatnot?
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Actually, our blood banking system is set up exactly the way you'd want it to be if you were a secret vampire conspiracy.
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 5:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Mechalich wrote:
There is absolutely a choice. It is possible to have your country choose to accept population decline and seek other methods to mitigate the problems it raises. 'More growth for ever!' as a means of sustaining the social safety net is contingent on accepting capitalism as it is. Keep in mind that Japan is several decades ahead of the European nations on this particular curve and the world hasn't ended for the Japanese.


Everything you just said is wrong. First of all, I'm not talking about "moar growth" I'm talking about stability. You can't have half as many working people supporting an ever increasing number of old people. You might have enough money and wheat, but you need fucking nurses.

Second, you're just wrong about Japanese demographics. Here's Japanese Demographics in the 80s:



You'll note that young workers still outnumbered old workers and people entering the workforce outnumbered people leaving the workforce. Now here's this decade:



Japan is only 10 years in to the actual demographic implosion. And during that time, GDP per capita has fallen from $46,000 in 2011 to $32,500 today. Japan is only a little farther ahead on the demographic implosion than Western Europe is. And their experience of it is that it's an economic catastrophe and their civilization is in grave peril.

You should take no comfort from Japan, it's going really badly for them.

-Frank
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Mechalich
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Starmaker wrote:
Mechalich wrote:
but in the US, due to extraordinary inequality a huge portion of the working poor are not net contributors

WHAT? The working poor are net contributors, they're simply robbed of the share of their contribution, and a small portion of it is then returned under the guise of charity. The working poor pay way more into the system than they get back as welfare.


Welfare is largely irrelevant to the overall economic picture, which is driven by retirement costs and by medical costs. People in the United States who earn the average wage, receive more in Social Security and Medicare benefits than they pay into the system via payroll taxes. So anyone, whether immigrant or native born or grown in a lab who earns less than the average wage over the course of their lifetime is not a net contributor to the main safety net progams.

The same math more or less holds true for federal safety net programs funded by income taxes, which have a progressive scale and things like the EITC to mitigate how much the working poor pay. The area the poor in the US get screwed on taxes is sales taxes and other regressive fees, mostly through the states (and sometimes locally, depending on where you live).
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hyzmarca
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

FrankTrollman wrote:



You'll note that young workers still outnumbered old workers and people entering the workforce outnumbered people leaving the workforce. Now here's this decade:




Looking at that chart, the problem could be solved by raising the retirement age to 85. Not an ideal solution, but one that would drastically reduce the impact on the workforce.

Mechalich wrote:
Starmaker wrote:
Mechalich wrote:
but in the US, due to extraordinary inequality a huge portion of the working poor are not net contributors

WHAT? The working poor are net contributors, they're simply robbed of the share of their contribution, and a small portion of it is then returned under the guise of charity. The working poor pay way more into the system than they get back as welfare.


Welfare is largely irrelevant to the overall economic picture, which is driven by retirement costs and by medical costs. People in the United States who earn the average wage, receive more in Social Security and Medicare benefits than they pay into the system via payroll taxes. So anyone, whether immigrant or native born or grown in a lab who earns less than the average wage over the course of their lifetime is not a net contributor to the main safety net progams.

The same math more or less holds true for federal safety net programs funded by income taxes, which have a progressive scale and things like the EITC to mitigate how much the working poor pay. The area the poor in the US get screwed on taxes is sales taxes and other regressive fees, mostly through the states (and sometimes locally, depending on where you live).


The primary contribution of the working poor is not getting paid enough for their labor, which in turn makes the rich richer.


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Korwin
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

FrankTrollman wrote:

The only question is how you're going to go about Austrianizing them once you do.
Haha, what Austrian identity?
Must have missed that in School...
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Red_Rob wrote:

I mean, I'm pretty sure the Mayans had a prophecy about what would happen if Frank and PL ever agreed on something. PL will argue with Frank that the sky is blue or grass is green, so when they both separately piss on your idea that is definitely something to think about.
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deaddmwalking
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 28, 2017 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I'm not Austrian, but the best way to learn that you have a cultural identity is go live somewhere else. There's all kinds of things you take for granted that it turns out the rest of the world isn't into. If 'normal' isn't the same everywhere, you can figure out what your cultural identity is.
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tussock
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 28, 2017 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

hyzmarca wrote:
Looking at that chart, the problem could be solved by raising the retirement age to 85. Not an ideal solution, but one that would drastically reduce the impact on the workforce.


It's not a workforce you need per se. It's highly productive low-cost people to produce sufficient for society's needs, which is what the current workforce does. A working 80-year-old is not particularly productive and their demands on society almost certainly go up on account of having any sort of schedule to stick to. So it won't be what an older workforce does.

Ideally we'd get robots to do it all, but robots are pretty shit at caring for the aged or chasing down people who defraud the elderly, for instance, and are also not at all cost-free.
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sandmann
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

tussock wrote:
hyzmarca wrote:
Looking at that chart, the problem could be solved by raising the retirement age to 85. Not an ideal solution, but one that would drastically reduce the impact on the workforce.


It's not a workforce you need per se. It's highly productive low-cost people to produce sufficient for society's needs, which is what the current workforce does. A working 80-year-old is not particularly productive and their demands on society almost certainly go up on account of having any sort of schedule to stick to. So it won't be what an older workforce does.

Ideally we'd get robots to do it all, but robots are pretty shit at caring for the aged or chasing down people who defraud the elderly, for instance, and are also not at all cost-free.


Plus, you need to sell that to the people. Where I live, civil war would break out if any politician would even suggest to raise the retirement age to 70+.
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tussock
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 29, 2017 2:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Well, we need to produce things that society actually needs.

Little things we deal with the complexities of need through market capitalism, works super well, with the right mix of production subsidies and regulation to prevent critical shortages in key products (like, say, electricity supply, or quality of potable water). But also state housing programs, healthcare, education, public welfare management, food safety, law enforcement, fire suppression, and so on. Maintaining the bridges. Those need produced too, because the market does not provide those well at all.

People produce all those things in order for us to be as wealthy as we are, collectively. With less potential highly productive people about, those things are also all in need of a supply of young people to keep doing them as the previous suppliers age out of productivity.
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deaddmwalking
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 29, 2017 1:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

sandmann wrote:

Plus, you need to sell that to the people. Where I live, civil war would break out if any politician would even suggest to raise the retirement age to 70+.


It's usually not a hard-sell. You basically advance it in stages where most people are not impacted. For example, if the current retirement age is 65+, you say that everyone age 30 or over can continue to retire at 65. Anyone 25-30 can retire at 68 and anyone under 25 can retire at 70. Now anyone over 30 isn't directly impacted, so while they may not really support the change, it doesn't negatively impact them. And very few under 30 really have a sense of what being 65 or being 70 will be like as far as retiring - especially if people stay healthy.

With so much of retirement being pushed to personal investments rather than a pension, I absolutely expect to see a generation that can't afford to retire, even with Social Security.

Social Security wrote:

The maximum monthly Social Security benefit payment for a person retiring in 2016 at full retirement age is $2,639. However, the maximum allowable benefit amount is only payable to those who had the maximum taxable earnings for at least 35 working years.


The current maximum taxable earnings is $127k (so most people won't be making the maximum). If someone averaged $50k annually for their 35 highest earning years, they would earn $1,846.74/month.

So what happens when you have people that can't afford to retire? While it may be because they didn't do enough to prepare for retirement (ie, it's their own damn fault), the whole reason Social Security was created was because society didn't think it was right that the elderly were being turned out to starve in the streets because they were now too old and sick to work and hadn't saved enough to live on.

I think a 'universal basic income' is going to gain momentum. The thing about that is it allows someone to 'retrain' with minimum disruption. It also limits the impact to EVERYONE ELSE when someone loses a job. There are 3.5 million truck drivers in the United States, and self-driving trucks are going to replace them. When 3.5 million people lose their income, there are shocks in the economy. It affects everywhere they shop - ensuring that they still go to the movies and buy groceries helps everyone else out. And if everyone's getting the benefit all of these conversations about 'who deserves it' can mostly be dropped. I guess we'll find out eventually, anyways.
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Bigode
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

FrankTrollman wrote:
In the UK specifically, immigrants are a younger cohort than native British people and have a higher percentage of trained medical professionals. Not only do the immigrants of the UK pay more in taxes than they cost to treat, but they provide more man-hours of medical professional work than they use up. By kind of a lot, actually.
Which is less good news than it sounds like.
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Schleiermacher
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 10:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Hm. I think there's a typo in your user name.
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Bigode
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

It seems like I'm now making the second post in all of TGD to contain the word "Rotherham", and like those cops minded being called "bigots" far too much.
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Kaelik
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

When I first read the byline of the site: "A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media"

I said, what are the odds that 100% of those interesting perspectives are racist nazis and 0% are anyone to the left criticizing the country for being kind of right wing shittery.

And then I clicked on it to see other articles and saw this:

"http://www.unz.com/tsaker/first-they-came-for-the-nazis-and-pedophiles/"

And then I said... Yeah, so 100%.
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Bigode
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Kaelik wrote:
When I first read the byline of the site: "A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media"
Is condemnation of the apparent Nazi murderer "excluded from mainstream media"? Assuming that it actually was murder, it's more than justified, but there's plenty of other people doing it. On the other hand, while I don't know everything about the US' mainstream media, I think "let's not blow up Iran" has a better claim to that.

Kaelik wrote:
"http://www.unz.com/tsaker/first-they-came-for-the-nazis-and-pedophiles/"
Funny, I thought the argument "they will first claim they're targetting actual bad people (which they aren't necessarily), then use the new laws against whoever challenges them" was quite well-accepted here. Also, the Saker is so racist he recommends cultivating good relations with various kinds of non-European Muslims, including recent immigrants in Europe.
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Pseudo Stupidity
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Kaelik wrote:
When I first read the byline of the site: "A Collection of Interesting, Important, and Controversial Perspectives Largely Excluded from the American Mainstream Media"

I said, what are the odds that 100% of those interesting perspectives are racist nazis and 0% are anyone to the left criticizing the country for being kind of right wing shittery.

And then I clicked on it to see other articles and saw this:

"http://www.unz.com/tsaker/first-they-came-for-the-nazis-and-pedophiles/"

And then I said... Yeah, so 100%.


Perhaps even more telling is...

That Article wrote:
Recently from Author

How the Jews Won the Battle of Charlottesville

...

Free Speech, Jewish Activism, and the Trial of Jeremy Bedford-Turner

Exodus Redux: Jewish Identity and the Shaping of History


For shits and giggles I looked at the article and it cites the MPTS while just pulling anecdotes from it without explaining how the author came up with any of his stats. There's literally no reason to trust that this guy, who's open about being a Nazi, to not lie about stats to make the untermensch look bad.
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Bigode
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Pseudo Stupidity wrote:
For shits and giggles I looked at the article and it cites the MPTS while just pulling anecdotes from it without explaining how the author came up with any of his stats. There's literally no reason to trust that this guy, who's open about being a Nazi, to not lie about stats to make the untermensch look bad.
How about British state media?
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Pseudo Stupidity
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Bigode wrote:
Pseudo Stupidity wrote:
For shits and giggles I looked at the article and it cites the MPTS while just pulling anecdotes from it without explaining how the author came up with any of his stats. There's literally no reason to trust that this guy, who's open about being a Nazi, to not lie about stats to make the untermensch look bad.
How about British state media?


Those stats don't match the ones in the Nazi article, and trained doesn't mean from. No reason to trust that the guy isn't lying about his stats.
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Omegonthesane
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Bigode wrote:
Pseudo Stupidity wrote:
For shits and giggles I looked at the article and it cites the MPTS while just pulling anecdotes from it without explaining how the author came up with any of his stats. There's literally no reason to trust that this guy, who's open about being a Nazi, to not lie about stats to make the untermensch look bad.
How about British state media?

That was in 2012. Nearly five years of treasonous Tory attacks on the NHS ago. Even before we get into how it isn't describing the act of putting refugee skills to full use, we're shorter on doctors now.
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Kaelik wrote:
Because powerful men get away with terrible shit, and even the public domain ones get ignored, and then, when the floodgates open, it turns out there was a goddam flood behind it.
FrankTrollman wrote:
As far as death and human misery goes, Tobacco is basically World War II grinding on forever with no real sign of stopping in our life times. Death camps and nuclear bombs and stuff are certainly dramatic, but public health crises are always and forever bigger than wars on the global scale.

FrankTrollman wrote:
White people are basically just horrible...The entire Reagan Revolution is just white people voting to destroy their own social safety nets because they'd rather fucking starve than let black people eat.



Zak S, Zak Smith, Dndwithpornstars, Zak Sabbath, Justin Bieber, shitmuffin
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Bigode
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Omegonthesane wrote:
That was in 2012. Nearly five years of treasonous Tory attacks on the NHS ago. Even before we get into how it isn't describing the act of putting refugee skills to full use, we're shorter on doctors now.
About the treason: sure (You counting Blair and Brown as Tories too?). However: A) even if actual refugees lack in competent people, taking them in can be argued for purely from charity, but the countries talked about mostly aren't places disputed with the IS; and B) yeah, a country ruled by non-traitors wouldn't "need" anyone from elsewhere - you might even think that creating the conditions for "need" of electing a new people and then doing exactly that are related, and indeed treason (and I mean simply in the sense of "let's get people that work for less").
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deaddmwalking
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Bigode,

The problem with the article (and so many like it) is that it uses an anecdote to try to imply a problem is larger/more widespread than it actually is.

For example, there have been people victimized by illegal immigrants. Being murdered is bad no matter who does it, but it seems worse if the person who commits it shouldn't even be here anyway. But it turns out, illegal immigrants actually commit fewer crimes than US citizens.

There are a lot of shitty people in this world (see: mirror) and that applies regardless of what selection criteria you use (whether it is racial, religious, political, geographic, professional or other). It's easy to paint any group with a broad brush (ever hear a lawyer joke?) but while every group has unpleasant individuals, that doesn't mean the whole group is that way. Most people (yourself included) distinguish themselves from members of their group that don't represent their values (example: I'm not that kind of lawyer). If you were a member of the group, you'd recognize factions and differences and even if you maintained stereotypes they'd be more specific (instead of all white people do X it's Spaniards are like Y and Italians are like Z).

There are a lot of immigrants to the UK. They are from different places, many of which vary in specific cultural values. That said, most of them, especially highly educated immigrants like doctors make an effort to adopt UK customs. If they weren't interested in 'being British', they probably wouldn't have come in the first place. That doesn't mean that they're going to abandon their native culture completely, but it means they're at least open to change.

Here's an article about doctors accused of sexual assault. It turns out that there are people who commit sexual assault even if they're white and/or native born.

Any argument that relies on examples of 'bad conduct' in a specific group needs to at a minimum show that said bad conduct happens at a higher rate than other specific groups before claiming it reflects on that larger group at all.

That's an incredibly low bar, but most such claims don't even try to overcome it (usually because they can't). Instead, they rely on sensationalism and blunt emotional impact to create bigots.

Regarding your last post specifically, demographic concerns surrounding a declining birth rate support immigration policies. We've seen this happen with country after country - as income levels rise and standards of living increase, people have fewer children. Since there is some amount of infant mortality and sterility in a population, to maintain a static population figure you're going to need a reproduction rate of around 2.1 per woman - anything less than that and you have a declining population. The fertility rate in Germany is around 1.5; in Britain it is about 1.8 and in France it is about 2.01 - in all of those cases those numbers include children born by immigrants. Non-traitors will need an answer to a major problem created by an aging population. Immigration is the solution used by the United States since...forever...and it is one that actually works well. There are always problems with the pace at which integration happens. My uncle who was himself an immigrant from Holland has concerns about Mexicans and their failure to integrate - but it was the same with the Germans and the Irish and the Polish and every other major immigration wave we've had. Even without the cultural 'melting pot', societies change and evolve - they are not static. It is pointless to try to stop change and preserve a history that never was - but it not impossible to try to guide that change.

Final point - your sources matter. No matter how smart you are if your sources are suspect, any point you try to make is also suspect. There are quite a number of respectable sources you could try. Legitimate newspapers often even provide links to their sources (for example, the NY Times article I linked to has links to a peer-reviewed academic study).
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Kaelik
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Is Bigode now claiming that allowing immigrants is treason?

Am I misreading this in some way?

This is like, peak fucking Nazi. Like, are you sure you don't vote for the BNP every election?
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deaddmwalking
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 7:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Kaelik wrote:
Is Bigode now claiming that allowing immigrants is treason?

Am I misreading this in some way?

This is like, peak fucking Nazi. Like, are you sure you don't vote for the BNP every election?


I did have trouble parsing his last post, but yes, I believe he is saying that any nation that 'needs' immigrants is 'betraying' the people who are already there. Making them treasonous.
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Pseudo Stupidity
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Kaelik wrote:
Is Bigode now claiming that allowing immigrants is treason?

Am I misreading this in some way?

This is like, peak fucking Nazi. Like, are you sure you don't vote for the BNP every election?


This statement is very Nazi:
"yeah, a country ruled by non-traitors wouldn't "need" anyone from elsewhere - you might even think that creating the conditions for "need" of electing a new people and then doing exactly that are related, and indeed treason"

I read his stance as the following: Politicians have engineered the low birth rate (somehow) to make us need immigrants and that is treason.

I bet if we dig into why it's treason we lean it's because of ethnonationalism, because why the fuck is it treason to make other people citizens if not that?
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Bigode
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 09, 2017 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

More Nazism:

https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2013/12/04/making-low-wages-liveable/raise-the-minimum-wage-to-12-an-hour

http://www.unz.com/article/googles-new-search-protocol-is-restricting-access-to-13-leading-socialist-progressive-and-anti-war-web-sites/

http://www.unz.com/jpetras/the-fall-offensive-the-us-france-and-brazil/

deaddmwalking: the first posted version of this post was just the links, but I thought not replying a word to your post might be too assholish. I think some of it is true, some is you being patronizing, some we'll never agree about, and I didn't post that link to convince anybody who'd argue against it, but for undecided third parties ("science advances one dead scientist at a time"). I started an actual reply, broke a tag somewhere, and thought "Why pretend there's a point?" .
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