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Brexistentialism
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Kaelik
ArchDemon of Rage


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 11897

PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Koumei wrote:
It seems very frequent that a situation crops up where the EU hadn't planned for something happening and it later on bites them in the ass. Like "what to do if there's a huge financial crisis that is spreading through multiple countries in the EU" back when they panicked and tried to convince wealthy countries "Don't worry you won't have to bail anyone out!" while telling in-crisis countries "You can't leave, someone can bail you out! That's why you joined!"

Not including "A process for kicking someone out of the club" seemed like a really obvious and stupid mistake. Having that there would really solve this problem as Germany could in fact say "You have until X to either execute Article 50 or make the formal declaration that you are not doing it. Otherwise you get a Dishonourable Discharge and instead of negotiations, we just flat-out treat you the same as Kuwait*."

That would at least force the UK to do something and stop dicking everyone around.

*If it turns out Kuwait actually does have some kind of reasonable trade deal with the EU, then substitute in some other country that is not even remotely part of the EU and doesn't have bullying power or kind-of-friends status and is 100% "Someone else".


1a) The EU does have a process for kicking people out. It just nominally only applies when they do something really bad, which is why it nominally doesn't apply to the current situation with the UK.

1b) The process is really hard, because of course it is, if it was really easy for one asshole country to just drive another one out of the EU because they were angry, then the EU would be worthless.

2) Germany basically did say "Execute Article 50 by date Y (No mention whatsoever of the fact that Parliament could decide not to leave, because that would undermine our shitty argument) or we will totally.... uh.... Well we will decided that you did it!" But people mostly don't care because: a) That date is in the future, not the present, so there is still time for the UK to do something so Germany won't have to actually carry through on their threat and b) See 1a and 1b, Germany really doesn't want to be in a position of actually having to carry through on their threat, because they have very little hope of accomplishing that at all.
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DrPraetor
Knight-Baron


Joined: 02 Apr 2009
Posts: 780

PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/14/world/europe/scotland-uk-independence-referendum.html

Under one proposed nationality law for an independent Scotland, I would qualify for Scots citizenship since my grandfather was born in Glasgow.

This seems like a good time to check around: I know a bunch of Britisher financial types are relocating to Eire. Is anyone moving or otherwise disrupted?
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When you talk, all I can hear is "DunningKruger" over and over again like you were a god damn Pokemon. --Frank
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FrankTrollman
Serious Badass


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 26752

PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Right now it's all Calvinball. No one knows what the British government plans to do, and Theresa May claims that she not only doesn't have to have a clear plan but that the court's findings that there actually has to be a vote of some kind in parliament for or against whatever plan they eventually put forward is poppycock.

The government is threatening Scotland that they will have to apply for EU membership from outside because go fuck yourself, but there's no particular reason to believe that is true. If Scotland asked to have the UK's seat in the EU, the EU would probably just give it to them.

So the bottom line is that no one knows whether everyone is going to get kicked out of the UK in 2019 or how badly all the trade fuckups are going to go. It's going to be bad, and the British Pound has already lost a lot of value without the kind of increase in exports that normally comes with. But the other shoe has not dropped. Theresa May's democratically illegitimate government has not presented there plan to the European Commission, so we haven't even gotten to the part where she issues her demands and the nations of Europe tell her to stuff them up her ass.

-Frank
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Hadanelith
Journeyman


Joined: 27 Aug 2011
Posts: 135

PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Theresa May is very firm that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. Whether that actually happens is up for debate, and what happens afterwards is a matter of wild speculation.
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SlyJohnny
Knight-Baron


Joined: 23 Jan 2012
Posts: 675

PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

My girlfriend and I have discussed the possibility of escaping this sinking ship to Scotland. I have no idea how citizenship would work, though. I imagine they'll want British expats to have lived in Scotland for years.
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RobbyPants
Prince


Joined: 06 Aug 2008
Posts: 4262

PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Hadanelith wrote:
Theresa May is very firm that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. Whether that actually happens is up for debate, and what happens afterwards is a matter of wild speculation.

Looks like she's going through with it.

So, what's the timeline on Scotland's second vote? If the leave Britain, what ultimately happens to Britain once they've been out of the EU for a while, having lost one of their own countries? Does this slow the gains of right wing populism?


Last edited by RobbyPants on Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:47 am; edited 1 time in total
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Voss
Prince


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 3536

PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

RobbyPants wrote:
Hadanelith wrote:
Theresa May is very firm that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. Whether that actually happens is up for debate, and what happens afterwards is a matter of wild speculation.

Looks like she's going through with it.

So, what's the timeline on Scotland's second vote? If the leave Britain, what ultimately happens to Britain once they've been out of the EU for a while, having lost one of their own countries? Does this slow the gains of right wing populism?


I believe the timeline is that the English British government gets to decide if they'll allow it to happen at all. And May already told Sturgeon to go fuck herself.

Supposedly talks might ensue. It really depends which newspaper and/or talking head you listen to at this point.
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FrankTrollman
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Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 26752

PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

RobbyPants wrote:
Hadanelith wrote:
Theresa May is very firm that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. Whether that actually happens is up for debate, and what happens afterwards is a matter of wild speculation.

Looks like she's going through with it.

So, what's the timeline on Scotland's second vote? If the leave Britain, what ultimately happens to Britain once they've been out of the EU for a while, having lost one of their own countries? Does this slow the gains of right wing populism?


Holy Rood voted to have a new independence vote. No surprise there. They want to hold the new vote sometime between April and February 2019 - so they can get their split in before England carries them out of Europe. Since the SNP would be able to negotiate directly with the EU and all the EU rules are Calvinball anyway, they would be allowed to keep their EU status if this happened.

The thing is that as things currently stand, the English parliament gets to decide when and if to schedule the vote. If the Tories think there's a significant chance they won't win, they won't schedule a vote (there is a significant chance they won't win, since they've flagrantly broken all of the promises they made to Scotland to win the last independence vote). If the Tories actually say they are refusing to hold the vote, then there's a chance that the SNP will hold a Scottish vote anyway without the UK's blessing. That would be a headache, because of course the UK prime minister would claim such a vote was illegal and then we'd be in Ukraine and Crimea territory. Remember, all these national vote things are Calvinball, because there's no established protocol for them and there are no provisions for any of these fucking things in any constitution.

The Brexit letter was conciliatory and short. It didn't specifically ask for anything, and laid out a set of negotiating stances that were effectively "Please let us keep as much of the status quo as possible." Which considering the UK's dreadful negotiating position is probably wise. They won't even get that, of course, since the UK getting a good deal remains an existential threat to Latvia. But by not making any specific demands other than free travel in Ireland there aren't a lot of high profile ways for May to be unable to claim success.

-Frank
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