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Kaelik
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Koumei wrote:
It seems very frequent that a situation crops up where the EU hadn't planned for something happening and it later on bites them in the ass. Like "what to do if there's a huge financial crisis that is spreading through multiple countries in the EU" back when they panicked and tried to convince wealthy countries "Don't worry you won't have to bail anyone out!" while telling in-crisis countries "You can't leave, someone can bail you out! That's why you joined!"

Not including "A process for kicking someone out of the club" seemed like a really obvious and stupid mistake. Having that there would really solve this problem as Germany could in fact say "You have until X to either execute Article 50 or make the formal declaration that you are not doing it. Otherwise you get a Dishonourable Discharge and instead of negotiations, we just flat-out treat you the same as Kuwait*."

That would at least force the UK to do something and stop dicking everyone around.

*If it turns out Kuwait actually does have some kind of reasonable trade deal with the EU, then substitute in some other country that is not even remotely part of the EU and doesn't have bullying power or kind-of-friends status and is 100% "Someone else".


1a) The EU does have a process for kicking people out. It just nominally only applies when they do something really bad, which is why it nominally doesn't apply to the current situation with the UK.

1b) The process is really hard, because of course it is, if it was really easy for one asshole country to just drive another one out of the EU because they were angry, then the EU would be worthless.

2) Germany basically did say "Execute Article 50 by date Y (No mention whatsoever of the fact that Parliament could decide not to leave, because that would undermine our shitty argument) or we will totally.... uh.... Well we will decided that you did it!" But people mostly don't care because: a) That date is in the future, not the present, so there is still time for the UK to do something so Germany won't have to actually carry through on their threat and b) See 1a and 1b, Germany really doesn't want to be in a position of actually having to carry through on their threat, because they have very little hope of accomplishing that at all.
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DrPraetor
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/14/world/europe/scotland-uk-independence-referendum.html

Under one proposed nationality law for an independent Scotland, I would qualify for Scots citizenship since my grandfather was born in Glasgow.

This seems like a good time to check around: I know a bunch of Britisher financial types are relocating to Eire. Is anyone moving or otherwise disrupted?
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Right now it's all Calvinball. No one knows what the British government plans to do, and Theresa May claims that she not only doesn't have to have a clear plan but that the court's findings that there actually has to be a vote of some kind in parliament for or against whatever plan they eventually put forward is poppycock.

The government is threatening Scotland that they will have to apply for EU membership from outside because go fuck yourself, but there's no particular reason to believe that is true. If Scotland asked to have the UK's seat in the EU, the EU would probably just give it to them.

So the bottom line is that no one knows whether everyone is going to get kicked out of the UK in 2019 or how badly all the trade fuckups are going to go. It's going to be bad, and the British Pound has already lost a lot of value without the kind of increase in exports that normally comes with. But the other shoe has not dropped. Theresa May's democratically illegitimate government has not presented there plan to the European Commission, so we haven't even gotten to the part where she issues her demands and the nations of Europe tell her to stuff them up her ass.

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Hadanelith
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Theresa May is very firm that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. Whether that actually happens is up for debate, and what happens afterwards is a matter of wild speculation.
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SlyJohnny
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

My girlfriend and I have discussed the possibility of escaping this sinking ship to Scotland. I have no idea how citizenship would work, though. I imagine they'll want British expats to have lived in Scotland for years.
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RobbyPants
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Hadanelith wrote:
Theresa May is very firm that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. Whether that actually happens is up for debate, and what happens afterwards is a matter of wild speculation.

Looks like she's going through with it.

So, what's the timeline on Scotland's second vote? If the leave Britain, what ultimately happens to Britain once they've been out of the EU for a while, having lost one of their own countries? Does this slow the gains of right wing populism?


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Voss
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

RobbyPants wrote:
Hadanelith wrote:
Theresa May is very firm that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. Whether that actually happens is up for debate, and what happens afterwards is a matter of wild speculation.

Looks like she's going through with it.

So, what's the timeline on Scotland's second vote? If the leave Britain, what ultimately happens to Britain once they've been out of the EU for a while, having lost one of their own countries? Does this slow the gains of right wing populism?


I believe the timeline is that the English British government gets to decide if they'll allow it to happen at all. And May already told Sturgeon to go fuck herself.

Supposedly talks might ensue. It really depends which newspaper and/or talking head you listen to at this point.
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 29, 2017 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

RobbyPants wrote:
Hadanelith wrote:
Theresa May is very firm that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. Whether that actually happens is up for debate, and what happens afterwards is a matter of wild speculation.

Looks like she's going through with it.

So, what's the timeline on Scotland's second vote? If the leave Britain, what ultimately happens to Britain once they've been out of the EU for a while, having lost one of their own countries? Does this slow the gains of right wing populism?


Holy Rood voted to have a new independence vote. No surprise there. They want to hold the new vote sometime between April and February 2019 - so they can get their split in before England carries them out of Europe. Since the SNP would be able to negotiate directly with the EU and all the EU rules are Calvinball anyway, they would be allowed to keep their EU status if this happened.

The thing is that as things currently stand, the English parliament gets to decide when and if to schedule the vote. If the Tories think there's a significant chance they won't win, they won't schedule a vote (there is a significant chance they won't win, since they've flagrantly broken all of the promises they made to Scotland to win the last independence vote). If the Tories actually say they are refusing to hold the vote, then there's a chance that the SNP will hold a Scottish vote anyway without the UK's blessing. That would be a headache, because of course the UK prime minister would claim such a vote was illegal and then we'd be in Ukraine and Crimea territory. Remember, all these national vote things are Calvinball, because there's no established protocol for them and there are no provisions for any of these fucking things in any constitution.

The Brexit letter was conciliatory and short. It didn't specifically ask for anything, and laid out a set of negotiating stances that were effectively "Please let us keep as much of the status quo as possible." Which considering the UK's dreadful negotiating position is probably wise. They won't even get that, of course, since the UK getting a good deal remains an existential threat to Latvia. But by not making any specific demands other than free travel in Ireland there aren't a lot of high profile ways for May to be unable to claim success.

-Frank
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DrPraetor
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PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N3zjLfSlaPg

vs

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/why-smooth-brexit-interests-germany-131728215.html
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DrPraetor
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

It looks like the Tories will be able to form a government, thanks to the fucking TansDemocratic Unionist Party. If the Conservatives lose one or two more close seats, then Sinn Fein might be able to block them by joining the Westminster parliament. It would require SF to swear fealty to Queen Elizabeth, but it would totally screw with the Tories - could SF bring themselves to do it?
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Koumei
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 4:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

At least we have all those pictures of a broken, crazy, probably-drunk May having to share a stage with Lord Buckethead. If the election gives us nothing else, we still have that.

Also if the people of the UK do vote the Tories in, a party that wants to fight terrorism by banning the Internet, then fuck 'em, let them shit in their own bed and sleep in it. There comes a time when you have to let stupid people have what they think they want, even if what they think they want is absolutely bad for them.
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Chamomile
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

There are two problems with that. One, a nation that is 51% idiots should not be able to drag the other 49% down with them, and two, dictatorships can be quite hard to reverse and future generations should not be made to suffer for the stupid mistakes of their ancestors.
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RobbyPants
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I don't know enough about the parties involved in the election. All I heard on NPR during my (now, very short!) commute was a blurb that "May went into the election hoping to expand her majority, and lost it."
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DSMatticus
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I am entirely too much a fan of kicking Germany out of the European tree house to throw shade over this particular matter. Ravage Europe once, shame on you. Ravage Europe twice, shame on Europe. Ravage Europe three times, how is this still fucking happening. They are clearly the bad guys. It's in the fucking water or something. Let them ruin their own country for a few decades until their politics start making sense - their particular brand of conservatism sure as fuck wouldn't work if the dynamics of the euro weren't propping up their economy.

I'm only slightly joking. Germany is basically a reservoir of economic disease at the moment, and isolating them - at least their international political power, anyway - is absolutely the answer. I mean, it's not going to happen, because it's a disease everyone secretly wants, but it needs done anyway. But it's not like we have any better international leaders any more anyway. What, Macron? Fuck it, let Merkel do her thing.
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deaddmwalking
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Chamomile wrote:
There are two problems with that. One, a nation that is 51% idiots should not be able to drag the other 49% down with them, and two, dictatorships can be quite hard to reverse and future generations should not be made to suffer for the stupid mistakes of their ancestors.


Democracy that includes protection for minority rights is a generally good thing. While there could be different vote thresholds for different types of changes, having the minority agree to go along for the ride is an important part of how democracy works.

And while a dictatorship may be hard to remove, in general, future generations should 'deal' with the mistakes of their ancestors. I mean, we should all be enlightened and 'think of the children' and not leave problems for them, but problems will be left. Whoever's alive when they show up gets to deal with them, like it or not.
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Orca
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

DrPraetor wrote:
It looks like the Tories will be able to form a government, thanks to the fucking TansDemocratic Unionist Party. If the Conservatives lose one or two more close seats, then Sinn Fein might be able to block them by joining the Westminster parliament. It would require SF to swear fealty to Queen Elizabeth, but it would totally screw with the Tories - could SF bring themselves to do it?

Nope.
The Guardian wrote:
Late on Thursday night, Gerry Adams, the Sinn Féin president, said his MPs would not be going to the House of Commons.

A senior Sinn Féin spokesman later told the Guardian there “wasn’t a snowball’s chance in hell” of the party ditching its abstentionism regarding Westminster.
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Kaelik
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Koumei wrote:
Also if the people of the UK do vote the Tories in, a party that wants to fight terrorism by banning the Internet, then fuck 'em, let them shit in their own bed and sleep in it. There comes a time when you have to let stupid people have what they think they want, even if what they think they want is absolutely bad for them.


Corbyn won the youth vote by 40 points. That literally doesn't even make sense.

Not sure you really want to jump on the train of "old people should be allowed to screw their kids who keep trying to stop them."
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Koumei
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I posted that after waking up and seeing some derpy photos but before checking the results, because I have my priorities straight. That there was more than 50% turn-out in the youth vote is fucking amazing, and I actually am happy with how Labour have done - were it not for Murdoch and gerrymandering they would have won in a landslide (this sounds awfully familiar).

As for letting old people fuck the country up, it's what they do. It's what they have always done, and always will do. I don't know how you can stop that short of killing the elderly with hammers setting a maximum age on voting. Yes, absolutely let sensible younger people emigrate, and don't hold up British badness as a thing to emulate, but if it happens, then all that's left is to feel smug when they fuck themselves, and occasionally phone them up to tell them about the amazing things they can't have. Smugness and schadenfreude could be all we have left.
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

DSMatticus wrote:
I am entirely too much a fan of kicking Germany out of the European tree house to throw shade over this particular matter. Ravage Europe once, shame on you. Ravage Europe twice, shame on Europe. Ravage Europe three times, how is this still fucking happening. They are clearly the bad guys. It's in the fucking water or something. Let them ruin their own country for a few decades until their politics start making sense - their particular brand of conservatism sure as fuck wouldn't work if the dynamics of the euro weren't propping up their economy.

I'm only slightly joking. Germany is basically a reservoir of economic disease at the moment, and isolating them - at least their international political power, anyway - is absolutely the answer. I mean, it's not going to happen, because it's a disease everyone secretly wants, but it needs done anyway. But it's not like we have any better international leaders any more anyway. What, Macron? Fuck it, let Merkel do her thing.


I know you're a bizarre horseshoe leftist, but could you be less of a fucking monster?

Openly rooting for actual fascists to tear down social services and allow Russian military forces to crush small democratic governments because you think it might somehow embarrass Germany is really crazy. It's like whoa dude, that's incredibly crazy!

But over and above the fact that supporting the Conservatives in their quest to dismantle healthcare and worker protections for millions of people in order to make Germany look bad is fucking insane, it's also completely fucking insane. Like, it totally won't even work, aside from that being evil and also retarded. If England leaves the EU and collapses into a Dickensian hellscape, that won't make it any easier to reform the EU. It won't make listening to Queen Merkel seem like any worse of an idea.

-Frank
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OgreBattle
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 11:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

What election result would make it easiest for Chinese billionaires to buy property in England
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DSMatticus
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Frank, are you fucking illiterate? I suggested the political isolation of Germany, not UK, you insufferable dumbshit. The UK is going to isolate itself unless they vote labour into power and they didn't because irrational vote-splitting and bad electoral systems. Oops. Germany is the de facto leader of the EU, particularly with the UK shitting the bed. And Merkel being a leading figure in the EU is objectively a terrible thing for both progressives and the EU. There is no reason we should at all disagree with the goal of weakening Germany's role on the European stage other than you being a closet centrist shithead waving around progressive credentials you don't deserve. Germany's determination to enforce the austerity doctrine upon the rest of the EU is the single most significant contributing factor to both the economic and political crises currently facing the EU today. Merkel is a fucking cancer.

And to be perfectly clear, Merkel owes her domestic success to her strategy of predation on Europe. German economics would pull a lesser-Brownback and hand itself its own defeats if it weren't successfully conning monetary subsidies out of the EU. Allowing a toxic political ideology like Merkel's to force its failures upon progressive movements like Syriza's is a losing political strategy for progressives with real human consequences for people who have zero votes in the government ultimately responsible for victimizing them. That's fucking insane. Do I literally advocate building a wall and lining it with troops and locking the Germans into their own little ghetto? No, of course not, you fucking idiot. I advocate the same thing I've always advocated; the dissolution of the EU as a half-assed monetary and political union, and a return to the much more successful pre-euro common market policies. The experiment in expanding the EU's powers failed, so fucking reverse that expansion, and then we never have to see what happened to Greece happen again. At least, not nearly as fucking awful as it's been.


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OgreBattle
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 3:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Germany (and their buddy France) is the only power that can stand up to the US-Russian-GB alliance tho'
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Stahlseele
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 10, 2017 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Want to isolate germany from the EU?
Easy. Wait for the rest to go nazi.
We kind of have hangups about that.
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FrankTrollman
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

DSM wrote:
Do I literally advocate building a wall and lining it with troops and locking the Germans into their own little ghetto? No, of course not, you fucking idiot. I advocate the same thing I've always advocated; the dissolution of the EU as a half-assed monetary and political union, and a return to the much more successful pre-euro common market policies. The experiment in expanding the EU's powers failed, so fucking reverse that expansion, and then we never have to see what happened to Greece happen again. At least, not nearly as fucking awful as it's been.


So... back when Portugal and Spain and Greece were literally fascist dictatorships then? One of the reasons that bad monetary policy has been so hard to fight in the PIGS countries is that even with ridiculous unemployment rates and ridiculous and avoidable economic calamities these countries are not worse off now than they were in the seventies. In the seventies, the Spanish government would kidnap the babies of suspected leftists and give them to conservative families to raise.

The other thing to realize is that during the 70s and 80s authoritarianism was losing and country after country was achieving some form of liberation. That's not true right now. The only country that has become more democratic and not collapsed into endless civil war in the last ten years is Nepal. Right now Russia is actively exporting authoritarianism around the world and they are winning. If you divide things up right now, a lot of countries are going to go fascist. Russia may not be able to pick the leaders of France, but they managed to pick the leader of the United Fucking States, and they sure as fuck can successfully kick over the leadership in Latvia and Romania if there's no EU to push back.

And this is the most important part: there's no evidence at all that the bad policies you have such a mad hate on for will be in any way diminished by breaking up the EU. The United Kingdom, about which this thread is nominally about, managed to completely fuck up its own economy with austerity policies despite being under no constraint from the EU at all. The UK wasn't debt constrained, the UK wasn't being leveraged by the ECB, the UK wasn't on the Euro, and it has its own central bank that was perfectly willing to do Obama style quantitative easing to pay for any kind of fiscal expansion. And for two whole years after the 2008 crisis the UK did basically the right thing, and then they voted the fucking Tories into power who immediately did a bunch of grinding austerity measures that wrecked the economy for no reason. And it is those fuckers that are running the fucking Brexit show!

Brexit doesn't weaken the hand of the austerians, it strengthens it! Theresa May is a hardcore austerian and she now gets to pay for her gifts to rich people however she fucking wants. And that means huge cuts to public services and rollbacks of EU worker protections and restrictions on access to healthcare to poor people. That's what it means to reduce the size of the EU. You get absolutely nothing of what you claim to want and the fascists win. Actual fascists. Actual winning. And we all lose, and you're still a fucking idiot for ever supporting any part of this. Because it was always completely obvious that this is the direction it was going.

-Frank
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DSMatticus
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

FrankTrollman wrote:
So... back when Portugal and Spain and Greece were literally fascist dictatorships then?

Maglag stop trying to understand how dates work you are still fucking awf - oh, wait, that's Frank.

Franco was assassinated in 1973. Estado Novo and the Greek Junta were both overthrown in 74. Do you want to know what the EU was doing at the time? A lot less than either you or I want. The Schengen Agreeement and the creation of the single market as we understand it today happens in the mid-80's. The creation of the eurozone is in the early 90's. You are zero for three! Not a single one of the goddamn regimes you are describing existed in the relevant pre-euro period!

I don't get it! Is yesterday the entire history of civilization to you fucking dumbasses? "So, DSMatticus, back when people were shitting in buckets and throwing it in the streets?" Do you really have so little grasp of recent European history that it's all just one great big blur? Because otherwise I would have difficulty interpreting this as anything other than a pathetically blatant attempt to score internet argument points oh wait, it's that, nevermind, everything makes sense now.

FrankTrollman wrote:
One of the reasons that bad monetary policy has been so hard to fight in the PIGS countries is that even with ridiculous unemployment rates and ridiculous and avoidable economic calamities these countries are not worse off now than they were in the seventies. In the seventies, the Spanish government would kidnap the babies of suspected leftists and give them to conservative families to raise.

Portugal: PS (centre-left) was running a minority government and needed support of other parties to pass any legislation. EU says "sure would be a shame if something happened to your economy, this austerity package should keep things running, winkwink. Why don't you get that voted on?" Every other party - including the right-wing PSD - votes it down, understanding that it will cause enough political damage to force an early election. The right-wing PSD and CDS-PP make huge gains in that election, and end up with an outright majority. They bring on the austerity they voted against and worse. If the EU had not strongarmed the PS into attempting political suicide, they would have had until 2013 to sort shit out. If it weren't for the euro and the incredibly regressive conditions being demanded of them for a bailout, they would have had a legitimate chance of going into the 2013 election braggng about the strength of the recovery. That was not an unwinnable election for leftists until the EU made it one!

Greece: I do not think we need to talk about what happened to Greece. The Greek public have voted against austerity at every possible opportunity and the EU has worked very hard to strongarm their government into making it happen regardless. The next election is two years out, but if the current opinion polling is any hint then it should be a blowout for conservatives. If that happens, then the EU owns that.

Look, your fundamental theory seems to be that because UK labour did things mostly right and still got their asses kicked and when the tories took power they started doing everything wrong and were nver punished for it, that means ALL IS LOST, NOTHING WE DO MATTERS, CONSERVATISM JUST HAPPENS. And that's fucking stupid. For the UK, it boils down to bad timing, stupid voters with short attention spans, and shitty electoral systems. That's pretty much it.

Labour happened to be in power when the crisis hit, and the next election happened to be timed perfectly with peak hurt. UK voters had just seen unemployment jump three percentage points and decided they would vote for the other guys. And the first thing the tories did when they got into power was start looking for a way to bump that up another percentage point, and two years later they succeeded. But UK elections are five years apart, and so three years after they'd finished jacking up unemployment and making shitty decisions it had fallen back down to pre-crisis levels. That's three years of improvement and the complete erasure of the unemployment hike. Are tories to thank for that? Fuck no, but that's what voters saw.

You want the fix? Don't elect your entire goddamn legislature once every five years. That's not enough elections for people to actually respond to events as they happen, and the end result is that labour were blamed completely for something they had no control over and the tories got full credit for a recovery they did everything they could to stop simply because they eventually they ran out of ways to keep stopping it! And shitty districting with FPTP doesn't help. In 2010, Tories won 47% of the seats with 36.1% of the vote. In 2015, tories picked up an extra .8% of the vote and an extra 4% of the seats.

There are things we can do to stem the tide of conservatism and fascism - and one of those things is elect leftists and run up the scoreboard with victories. That could have happened in Portugal, but it didn't, because the EU didn't want it to. That could have happened in Greece, but it didn't, because the EU didn't want it to. I suspect if I spent the time researching Ireland, Italy, and Spain, I would see either very similar stories or deeply corrupt and conservative countries whose problems run far too fucking deep (cough Italy cough) to be explained in the context of a single crisis.


Last edited by DSMatticus on Sun Jun 11, 2017 9:54 am; edited 1 time in total
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