Election 2016

Dean · Post by **Dean** » Sat May 09, 2015 3:41 am

I will say now what I've maintained for a long time: Jeb Bush is a pincushion. I don't think the right (The Koch's that is) has any intention of putting their billions behind Jeb. The evidence gathered over the last 15 years has become ironclad regarding Jeb's intentional knowing violations of the civil rights of black citizens in Florida (almost 100,000 of them by last count) in order to falsely declare Florida's vote for George W in the 2000 election. The Dem's have been sitting on a lot of new exciting evidence based on the hard work of some civil rights activist investigations for about 6 years now which is about how long Jeb has been making noise as a potential next president.

I think if Jeb was declared as the winner of the Koch's billion dollar gamble money the left would immediately get legal. I don't think they'd win (even though again, the evidence is basically ironclad) but they wouldn't need to win any actual cases. It would probably be enough for the American voting public to know that one presidential candidate was currently being tried for....I dunno...treason? What do you even call it when you violate a hundred thousand peoples right to vote to falsely install your brother as president? I don't think Jeb will be nominated because the Dem's have been loading a revolver meant just for him for almost a decade. I think Jeb is meant to go out front, take a lot of jabs and attention and negative focus (as the front runners always do) and duck out gracefully for whoever the Koch brothers have actually decided should be president.

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Wed May 27, 2015 11:24 pm

I wonder if Walker just shot himself in the balls.

Walker, a potential GOP presidential candidate, signed the ultrasound provision along with a hospital “admitting privileges” law that threatened to force clinics around the state to close.

Walker told Loesch that criticism he received about the ultrasound bill was merely an attack from the “gotcha” media, and that he was in fact just trying to provide women with “a cool thing.”

“The thing about that, the media tried to make that sound like that was a crazy idea,” he said. “Most people I talked to, whether they’re pro-life or not, I find people all the time that pull out their iPhone and show me a picture of their grandkids’ ultrasound and how excited they are, so that’s a lovely thing. I think about my sons are 19 and 20, we still have their first ultrasounds. It’s just a cool thing out there.”

And as a bullshit bonus, let's just throw in a quote that highlights what feckless VSP lapdogs Politifact really are:

Under the law, the person doing the ultrasound must tell the pregnant woman during the procedure "what the ultrasound is depicting," including the "dimensions of the unborn child and a description of any external features and internal organs that are present and viewable on the image." The person must also display the ultrasound images so that the pregnant woman may view them, but the woman can’t be forced to view them.

Planned Parenthood of Wisconsin told us that only a transvaginal ultrasound would enable a clinician to meet the requirements of the law for early-stage pregnancies, up to 12 weeks. And according to an August 2014 report from the state Department of Health Services, 84 percent of abortions in Wisconsin are performed at 12 weeks or less.

In a TV ad, EMILY’s List said Walker is "forcing some women to undergo a transvaginal probe to get an abortion," while an image on the screen said Walker "endorses mandating transvaginal ultrasounds."

The law doesn’t mandate transvaginal ultrasounds, rather it says the woman seeking an abortion can choose either a transvaginal or transabdominal ultrasound.

But medical professionals say that the new requirement, as a practical matter, means some women have to get a transvaginal ultrasound.

erik · Post by **erik** » Thu May 28, 2015 12:20 pm

George Pataki (former NY Governor) has thrown his hat into the ring for GOP President

RobbyPants · Post by **RobbyPants** » Thu May 28, 2015 12:46 pm

Santorum formally announces his candidacy

Lago PARANOIA wrote:
“The thing about that, the media tried to make that sound like that was a crazy idea,” he said. “Most people I talked to, whether they’re pro-life or not, I find people all the time that pull out their iPhone and show me a picture of their grandkids’ ultrasound and how excited they are, so that’s a lovely thing. I think about my sons are 19 and 20, we still have their first ultrasounds. It’s just a cool thing out there.”

Wait. His argument is that because people show ultrasounds of babies they want to keep, women should love to get ultrasounds of the fetuses they're aborting?

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Thu May 28, 2015 3:32 pm

Scott Walker is one of those politicians you want to vote off the island continent planet.

TiaC · Post by **TiaC** » Thu May 28, 2015 8:02 pm

erik wrote:George Pataki (former NY Governor) has thrown his hat into the ring for GOP President

At first I thought this said George Takei and I was all excited.

RobbyPants · Post by **RobbyPants** » Thu May 28, 2015 11:15 pm

TiaC wrote:
erik wrote:George Pataki (former NY Governor) has thrown his hat into the ring for GOP President
At first I thought this said George Takei and I was all excited.

I had to read that twice, too.

Ohhhh, myyyy.

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Tue Jun 02, 2015 3:35 pm

Okay, I said earlier in this thread that since there is pretty much guaranteed to be a recession from 2016-2020 short of a massive chance in the status quo. A status quo that I don't think that Hillary Clinton is capable of challenging, thus it'd be better to blah de blah you can read it yourself.

While I can agree with other people that my course of action was kind of stupid, there's still the fact that I think that Clinton's presidency is going to be hit with a recession short of some amazing black swan in her favor. To recap my argument:

[*] The deficit is rapidly collapsing. This is very, very bad fucking news. The supply of money is acting (or HAS acted, see last quarter's GDP numbers) as a lid on the recovery.
[*] America has record household debt right now. A recovery cannot be fueled by private spending. To significantly aggravate this problem, the United States also has near-record income inequality, which further reduces the ability (or more to the point, desire) for the private sector to spend.
[*] America has a huge trade deficit right now. This represents money being taken out of the economy. Which would not be a big deal at all if it wasn't because of point one.

What's more, unless Clinton completely destroys her rivals -- which I think is unlikely and things are just going to regress back to the demographic mean -- 2016 will leave the US with about a 6% margin in the Presidential Election. Nate Silver and Sam Wang project that she needs about 7% to overcome gerrymandering and win the U.S. House. Recapturing the Senate is almost guaranteed, but completely cockblocking the filibuster is another story.

So what exactly should she do about this? I think that in an above-average case scenario, the best that we can hope for is to do some deal with the devil with Republicans where we offer massive tax cuts in exchange for government spending. And they'll have to be targeted at the top 10% since post-Reagan Republicans have been shown not to give a fuck about tax cuts for the lower classes.

Josh_Kablack · Post by **Josh_Kablack** » Tue Jun 02, 2015 6:58 pm

Lago PARANOIA wrote:So what exactly should she do about this?.

Use actual fiscal and monetary policy levers to time the recession for a non-election year so that things are back on the upswing the four months preceding national elections. Sadly, that will cost some Governer's seats and result in further State-level gerrymandering - but such is the least bad of possible outcomes if your prediction proves accurate.

MGuy · Post by **MGuy** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 2:09 am

Would she even be able to do anything? It's been shown that the current Republican party is a mess and has a hard time doing even the most minor sane things to keep things running. What about this next election doesn't point to more crazy happening?

Lago PARANOIA · Post by **Lago PARANOIA** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 8:02 pm

The latest buzz in the blogosphere is that what the white working class of America wants most of all is to have a reformed government. In more concrete terms, they want less wastefraudabuse, less influence by special interests, more responsiveness, and less legal 'corruption'.

I don't know if Hillary Clinton has caught onto this yet, but since it's a pretty big deal the last few days in the half-centrist/half-leftist talking circles (Nate Cohn, Ed Kilgore, Johnathan Chait, Nancy LeTourneau, etc.) I don't see how she's not going to be aware of this strategy for long.

If they're right, this represents a pretty big escape hatch for her campaign and the party in general. If the Democratic Party can get like 10% more of the white working class vote outside the vote than they have been getting, getting and keeping Congress becomes much more doable. This wouldn't even really require antagonizing any of the existing Democratic base either.

EDIT (Link): http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazi ... p?page=all

And in more engraging news:

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) said Monday that he’d be willing to sign a 20-week abortion ban without exceptions for rape or incest, adding that women were mostly concerned about those issues "in the initial months" of pregnancy, television station WKOW reported.

“I mean, I think for most people who are concerned about that, it’s in the initial months where they’re most concerned about it,” Walker said of pregnancies caused by rape and incest.

“In this case, again, it’s an unborn life, it’s an unborn child and that’s why we feel strongly about it,” Walker said. “I’m prepared to sign it either way that they send it to us.”

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/s ... ape-incest

God, what a fucking asshole. I can't believe that this guy is the current frontrunner. What's more, I also can't believe that this guy is probably also going to win the GOP nomination because Jeb Bush is unexpectedly weak in the polls.

Chamomile · Post by **Chamomile** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 8:44 pm

I don't understand how people can be surprised that a man whose claim to fame is being the younger brother of one of the worst presidents of all time is doing poorly in polls. Even conservatives consider Dubya to be an incompetent embarrassment.

Omegonthesane · Post by **Omegonthesane** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 8:51 pm

Enough Republicans are batshit insane that it stands out when they notice a Republican actually being bad at the job.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:02 pm

Wait for it. Bobby Jindal is making noises like he might join the circus.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:24 pm

Lago wrote:In more concrete terms, they want less wastefraudabuse, less influence by special interests, more responsiveness, and less legal 'corruption'.

You know what that means? It means "Buzzwords Buzzwords Buzzwords." That is completely empty aphorisms and doesn't mean dick. People want more services and lower taxes, and are totally convinced that the money could be found somehow if other people would stop cheating and/or fucking up, news at eleven!

If a bunch of center leftist blogger types have been scratching their nuts in public about this fact, it's because they either got stoned at a party together or it's a slow fucking news day and they don't have anything to talk about. Yes, white working class people don't understand how the federal budget works and vastly overestimate the amount of money lost to administration and fraud. Just like literally every other segment of the population. This is not insightful, it's not new, and it's not something you can win an election by pandering to.

-Username17

Koumei · Post by **Koumei** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:50 pm

They might get somewhere by touting how low they've "already made" these things, whether that was their doing or not, whether certain things have actually grown from 0.2% to 0.5% while the lay person thinks it's 20% and should "only" be 10%. Simply tell people something they obviously want to hear that happens to also be true, then put some spin on it that it's because you're so personally awesome.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 9:56 pm

Well, it's also the case of telling people what they don't want to hear that's also true. Like how revenue falls when you cut funding to the part of the IRS that goes after tax fraud and back taxes, or how the EPA can't enforce environmental laws if you cut their funding. It's all NIMBY crap.

erik · Post by **erik** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:13 pm

Chamomile wrote:I don't understand how people can be surprised that a man whose claim to fame is being the younger brother of one of the worst presidents of all time is doing poorly in polls. Even conservatives consider Dubya to be an incompetent embarrassment.

And he is hurting his chances with his "I haven't decided if I am running" bullshit. It is like a zen balance of being either as stupid as dubya or more financially exploitive than Romney.

I will salute if Jeb just retires to a life of megaluxury off his super PACs and says I told you so.

name_here · Post by **name_here** » Wed Jun 03, 2015 11:30 pm

erik wrote:
Chamomile wrote:I don't understand how people can be surprised that a man whose claim to fame is being the younger brother of one of the worst presidents of all time is doing poorly in polls. Even conservatives consider Dubya to be an incompetent embarrassment.
And he is hurting his chances with his "I haven't decided if I am running" bullshit. It is like a zen balance of being either as stupid as dubya or more financially exploitive than Romney.

I will salute if Jeb just retires to a life of megaluxury off his super PACs and says I told you so.

Apparently the whole "I haven't decided if I'm running" thing has been going around because if you aren't officially running you're exempt from all the laws that stop you from raising money for Super PACs that support you.

erik · Post by **erik** » Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:41 am

Oh I and everyone knows why he is lying and saying he hasn't decided. It is such an obvious abuse that whatever financial gain he is making while significant is just going to have to pay for the cost of him either coming off as either an indecisive imbecile or a loophole abusing money launderer.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Thu Jun 04, 2015 12:44 am

Nah. The base won't care, and the base is what each of the GOP contenders is after - because, like last time, it's going to be a long, bloody clown car of a primary. By the time the actual election rolls around, the shenanigans in the lead-up to the primary are going to be long gone from common memory.

Pseudo Stupidity · Post by **Pseudo Stupidity** » Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:48 pm

Why are there so many Republican candidates? Do they actually hold different positions on anything? Whenever I hear somebody talking about one of the Republican candidates I can't tell who it is based on positions unless it's Rand Paul.

Could anyone give me a one-sentence description (position-wise) of each Republican candidate who matters?

angelfromanotherpin · Post by **angelfromanotherpin** » Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:30 pm

There are a lot of GOP candidates for two reasons. The first is that with no obvious frontrunners to contend with, the bar for being 'a contender' is very low, so a common barrier to entry isn't keeping out the riff-raff. The second reason is that managed properly, running for president is a really good monetary scam, so there's extra motivation to put yourself forward just to fleece the rubes.

Most all of them are running on some combination of cutting taxes, naked prejudice, and going to war with Iran. Just assume that's the default.

As for 'who matters,' that's kind of hard to tell, but I'll give it a shot. Of the declared candidates, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, George Pataki, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum don't matter.

Ted Cruz: Extra insanity.
Lindsey Graham: Extra war with Iran.
Mike Huckabee: Extra religious prejudice, less cutting taxes.
Rand Paul: Less war with Iran.
Marco Rubio: Default.

Jeb isn't technically declared, but will probably do less prejudice and extra war with Iran. I think the rest of the undeclared probably don't matter.

Kaelik · Post by **Kaelik** » Fri Jun 12, 2015 11:23 pm

Yeah, I don't know that any of the candidates actually matter.

But the short summary is:

The black one who won't win at all.
The psycho who took home his wife's miscarriage, so presumably he is double opposed to abortion.
The guy who really wants to bomb Iran.
The guy who really wants to MAKE THIS CHRISTIAN NATION GREAT.
The one who wants to MAKE THIS RACIST NATION GREAT.
The guy with the gun nut crazy conspiracy anti-gay father.
Bush III.
The one who is a minority, but not as crazy, and not the scary black kind, but is really thirsty.

Orion · Post by **Orion** » Sat Jun 13, 2015 1:42 am

Huckabee's not a real candidate, he's a scam candidate. He may have been serious the first time he ran, but he's not now.