Let's, for the moment, set the range such that it comes up as follows:
- Combative 1 or less
Disinterested 2 to 4
Interested 5 to 7
Attentive 8+
I'm going to go ahead and set the invading drow who just got shot have a near 3% chance of being willing to listen for a couple seconds, which makes the sum of all three negative modifiers at maximum as -10. Security, Presentation, & Bias are our three modifiers currently...the obvious option is to set the worst negative modifiers for -3 each.
Security
This covers the scene as a whole, basically deciding how safe the subject feels. Note, it is possible to be worried in an environment normally safe. If an intruder takes the subject by surprise, they are still feeling the environment is safe. If the subject is warned of their coming, be it a note of warning or even breaking down the door downstairs; their mind will adjust their perceived security downward to accommodate.
- -3: Threatened: Safety is actively questioned, such as high stakes drug deal or an invasion site.
-1: Worried: Dangerous neighborhood, carrying high value items in public, exposed condition.
+0: Safe: Public, yet non-threatening
Presentation
This covers how the party presents itself to the subject, indicating its desired outcome.
- -4: Assaulting: Direct attacks have been made.
-2: Threatening: Weapons are drawn, aspersions are cast, and is otherwise making their hostile intent clear.
+0: Terse: Isn't threatening, but is presenting the bare minimum of social niceties.
+1: Normal: Engaging in a non-hostile, friendly manner
+2: Aiding: Is actively improving their condition, offering gifts or aid
Bias
Personal prejudices and assumptions the subject has, including prior history with the specific person.
- -3: Enemy: Active dislike of target; be it prior history of violence, target of heavy racism, or even faction enemy.
-1: Distrust: Outsider (in an insular community), negative history, and similar negative prejudices.
+0: Stranger: Unremarkable, passive
+X: Innocuous: Friendly & familiar history, nonthreatening prejudice such as cute children or frat brothers
+X: Unguarded: Hold great personal fondness, feels secure with their presence
Let's run down the list.
Dungeon Crawl requires a total modifier of -7 or -8 to get the distribution we think we want. As they're opening the door arrows flying and Team Monster is hostile to adventurers, the fact they're home means we have a -7 right there. If the party is unaware of the monster or doesn't attack on sight (swords still drawn), then we have a 16% chance of an Interested result, unless the alarm's been raised to Red Alert and then we're back to -7's distribution.
Bandit Ambush is a tricky one. The party is likely unaware, their status as a mark makes them Distrusted, and the bandits are actively preparing for a fight to liberate their valuables from their corpses. This makes Attentive only 3% of the time, which is fine. It does make it possible for them to open with an attack, nearly a third of the time, in fact.
The next three involve positive modifiers on the part of the PCs, which takes a bit more finagling to decide upon for the final range. For
Ale & Whores, if the party enters the first town they find while feeling generous with their treasure, we want Disinterested to only happen 3% to 8% of the time. This is a Safe zone, and the PCs are Strangers. Meaning Aiding should be no more than +2 modifier, making Normal Presentation a +1.
Bad Cop: Hansel & Gretel involves the party entering with an accusatory, hostile demeanor. The witch is at home but doing eating children (at least slightly cautious), but the party is being Threatening and are obvious heroes (Distrust), giving us a total modifier of -4; which makes Disinterested happen 41% of the time & Combative about 28% of the time.
Good Cop: Hansel & Gretel involves largely the same situation, but the party is being friendly with their questions. This actually makes it a net -1, which means the witch will only be Combative 3% of the time. This is a bit more rare than I'd like, but everything else has been behaving properly thus far.