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FrankTrollman
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Joined: 07 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

How much should I be freaking out about the Front National leading in a poll for the French presidency? As I understand it, the Center-Right and Center-Left parties are both very insecure in their traditional roles as winners of the first round, and it is thus very likely that LePen can get to the second round. The Center-Right candidate is a liar and a thief, who said the only thing that would make him resign as candidate for president would be coming under investigation for corruption, and now he's under investigation for corruption and hasn't dropped out because go fuck yourself. And of course, the Center-Left is having a bunch of centrist traitors jump ship to make a bullshit new party with blackjack and hookers.

But while either the Center-Left or Center-Right could easily miss the runoff by being a bunch of fractious chucklefucks, Girl Hitler is still prone to lose to whoever she faces in round two by 20 points, right?

-Frank
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Ancient History
Invincible Overlord


Joined: 18 Aug 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/25/afghanistan-gay-asylum-seekers-home-office-illegal-homosexuality
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deaddmwalking
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Joined: 21 May 2012
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PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Trump was never supposed to win in America, so who knows? My wife travels to France regularly so we pay a little more attention to the politics there than most Americans.

France has a lot of commonality with the United States and a lot of the cultural conflict they're dealing with is SECULARISM versus RELIGION. While France is traditionally a Catholic country, they took steps to limit the power of the church to influence politics. It may not be possible to be 'French' without being secular. Of course, there has been a lot of Muslim immigration to France, and people are OFFENDED at the public display of religion. Wearing a headscarf or a male student refusing to shake a female teacher's hand bother people.

In France, the 'freedom of religion' is almost the opposite of here. It's not that the government can stop you from doing what you want to do in private, but there's a 'hard stop' for the practice of religion in public institutions.

Ultimately, this means a lot of people that don't really agree with the Front National still want more to be done to preserve the French identity.

France didn't control Algeria the way, say, the United States controls Puerto Rico. They institutionally made it a full part of the country (like Texas). The laws during that period were inconsistent, wherein natives didn't have full rights in Algeria, but they did have full rights in the rest of France.

The odds of her winning are significantly better than they should be, and for many of the reasons that Trump won. She is a celebrity (her father was a famous political figure) and while her party was anti-Jew during his day, Muslims are a much easier target now, being both a larger portion of the population than Jews ever were and having visually distinct religious practices.
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Blade
Knight


Joined: 14 Sep 2011
Posts: 468
Location: France

PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Short answer: nobody can tell. Analysts and polls have been shown to be unreliable, so we just don't have anything but "general feeling" to guess what could happen.

Long answer:

To keep it simple, let's see the chances of the major candidates of getting to the second round:
- Mélenchon: Very unlikely. It wouldn't be difficult for him to reach 10%, but getting higher is very hard. For many people he's still "extreme left" and "extreme left is as bad as extreme right".

- Hamon: Unlikely. Due to his link to the Parti Socialiste, he doesn't have the same "extreme left" tag, but is platform is still very leftist. If it wasn't for Mélenchon, he could get the 20ish percent that would make it possible to reach the second round but as it stands he's losing voters to Mélenchon and isn't able to reach far enough to the centre, especially with Macron there.

An alliance of Mélenchon and Hamon could hope getting to the second round, but Mélenchon is convinced he can succeed by himself, and his echo chamber agrees with him. Besides, he's got some major disagreements with Hamon. Meanwhile, Hamon considers himself as the de facto left candidate, since he's from the Parti Socialiste and the Parti Socialiste is the historical main left party.

- Macron: He's got his chances. Centre-left people see him as centre-left and centre-right people see him as centre-right, so he might be able to gather enough support to get there. However, he's now the main target of the right, so he'll be under heavy fire. He also seems to have media support, which is something many voters hate in France.

- Fillon: Maybe. He got caught for paying his wife and children with public money. Pretty bad when you're the candidate of virtue, rigor, etc. This meant some right voters will flee to Marine, while others will go to Macron. It's still possible for him to get to the second round, because since people hated the left president, they turn to the right.

- Marine: Very likely. She's got a strong support and it's unlikely to change. No matter what hit her, the attacks will be seen as attacks of the establishment against the outsider.

What to expect for the second round?

Hamon vs Marine: Many right voters have moved from "All but the extreme right" to "All but the socialists", very difficult for Hamon to win this one, unless he's able to get some of the disenfranchised voters who'd be likely to prefer a left alternative to the hard right.

Macron vs Marine: Macron, hands down. He's not scary enough for right voters, and is still better than Marine for everyone else.

Fillon vs Marine: Fillon, because the left voters would rather have him than Marine.

A second round without Marine: Still possible, but not with the current situation.

We're still a few months away, so anything can still happen. Generally speaking the French presidential elections get decided in the last weeks.


Last edited by Blade on Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Blicero
Knight-Baron


Joined: 07 May 2009
Posts: 985

PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Blade wrote:
Short answer: nobody can tell. Analysts and polls have been shown to be unreliable, so we just don't have anything but "general feeling" to guess what could happen.


Has polling for French elections been shown to be inaccurate in the past, or is this a statement you're making based on 2016's election upsets?
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Blade
Knight


Joined: 14 Sep 2011
Posts: 468
Location: France

PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

In 2002, everyone was surprised when Jean-Marie Le Pen got in the second round of the presidential elections.

Since then, they've been pretty reliable, but everyone could guess which way the wind was blowing.

This time, for both primaries, the polls were wrong. So wrong that in each case the winner was the one they dismissed as "the third man". From what I've read, they say that a lot of people just don't know who to vote for and decide themselves at the last minute.
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Ancient History
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Joined: 18 Aug 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

https://www.buzzfeed.com/nicolemiles/how-i-learned-to-draw-black-people-like-me

"straight up Golliwog"
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PhoneLobster
King


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 6199

PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

They still sell those around here. The soft toy store in a nearby tourist town has a whole specialist golliwog section. I kid you not. Hell I even encountered a completely random display of them for sale at a service station on a major interstate highway just the other day.

The soft toy place is the worst. You round a corner of teddy bears and bam, a wall of those things out of nowhere. Staring at you. I'm pretty sure just seeing that made me 10% more racist.
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hyzmarca
Prince


Joined: 14 Mar 2011
Posts: 3316

PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 5:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-libya-migrants-2017-story.html

It is apparently now possible to buy slaves for $100 a head, in Libya.
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angelfromanotherpin
King


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 7135

PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 12:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

hyzmarca wrote:
It is apparently now possible to buy slaves for $100 a head, in Libya.

ISIS was selling them for $25 in 2014.
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Ancient History
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Joined: 18 Aug 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 15, 2017 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

https://dolphin.town/about

eee? eee!
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Voss
Prince


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 3536

PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Well, looks like Turkey is going all in on authoritarianism. Though there are apparently lots of claims of voter fraud.

And the speech is... wow. Part of the 'it's unofficial but we totally won' speech is about getting rid of all outside influences, and obviously how democratic the country is.


Last edited by Voss on Sun Apr 16, 2017 6:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Stahlseele
Prince


Joined: 14 Apr 2010
Posts: 4668
Location: Hamburg, Germany

PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

In other news:
The impacts are getting uncomfortably close.
I was stuck in traffic because of a Bomb Threat no 5 kilometers from here today <.<
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DSMatticus
Prince


Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 4818

PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

So, in two weeks France will - barring a much worse but also significantly less probable outcome - elect Macron as their president. The left has been thoroughly rebuked, which after Hollande's betrayal is not particularly surprisingly. Macron is simply a higher dosage of the same bitter poison Hollande was offering but without the window dressing, and I suspect the people of France will find it no more pleasant to swallow. But he could get lucky - the Great Recession is quite a ways back now, and even in economics time does supposably heal all wounds. It's possible he will stumble into undeserved validation and create a new, enduring brand for exploitative centrism. Or perhaps he will fail, and the only one standing with any credibility going into the next French presidential election will be Le Pen - after all, if people have given up on policy entirely and are just voting against spineless fuck-ups and traitors, then it's Le Pen's "turn" next. Democracies do not always survive such turns.

Well, whatever happens, we have taken yet another step away from reforming the EU under sane conditions. The Macron of today seems likely to throw its weight mostly behind Germany in the push for economic madness, and a nationalist France would not constitute "sane conditions."
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Ancient History
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Joined: 18 Aug 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/25/paraguay-heist-brazil-gangsters-dynamite-speedboat
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