The Gaming Den Forum Index The Gaming Den
Welcome to the Gaming Den.
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Google
 Search WWW   Search tgdmb.com 
[Non-US] News That Makes You laugh/cry/neither...
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 105, 106, 107
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The Gaming Den Forum Index -> MPSIMS
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
FrankTrollman
Serious Badass


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 26686

PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2017 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

How much should I be freaking out about the Front National leading in a poll for the French presidency? As I understand it, the Center-Right and Center-Left parties are both very insecure in their traditional roles as winners of the first round, and it is thus very likely that LePen can get to the second round. The Center-Right candidate is a liar and a thief, who said the only thing that would make him resign as candidate for president would be coming under investigation for corruption, and now he's under investigation for corruption and hasn't dropped out because go fuck yourself. And of course, the Center-Left is having a bunch of centrist traitors jump ship to make a bullshit new party with blackjack and hookers.

But while either the Center-Left or Center-Right could easily miss the runoff by being a bunch of fractious chucklefucks, Girl Hitler is still prone to lose to whoever she faces in round two by 20 points, right?

-Frank
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Ancient History
Invincible Overlord


Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 10730

PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 12:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/feb/25/afghanistan-gay-asylum-seekers-home-office-illegal-homosexuality
_________________
The Unpublishable - Updates Fridays between midnight and midnight | http://wikithulhu.com
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
deaddmwalking
Duke


Joined: 21 May 2012
Posts: 1405

PostPosted: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Trump was never supposed to win in America, so who knows? My wife travels to France regularly so we pay a little more attention to the politics there than most Americans.

France has a lot of commonality with the United States and a lot of the cultural conflict they're dealing with is SECULARISM versus RELIGION. While France is traditionally a Catholic country, they took steps to limit the power of the church to influence politics. It may not be possible to be 'French' without being secular. Of course, there has been a lot of Muslim immigration to France, and people are OFFENDED at the public display of religion. Wearing a headscarf or a male student refusing to shake a female teacher's hand bother people.

In France, the 'freedom of religion' is almost the opposite of here. It's not that the government can stop you from doing what you want to do in private, but there's a 'hard stop' for the practice of religion in public institutions.

Ultimately, this means a lot of people that don't really agree with the Front National still want more to be done to preserve the French identity.

France didn't control Algeria the way, say, the United States controls Puerto Rico. They institutionally made it a full part of the country (like Texas). The laws during that period were inconsistent, wherein natives didn't have full rights in Algeria, but they did have full rights in the rest of France.

The odds of her winning are significantly better than they should be, and for many of the reasons that Trump won. She is a celebrity (her father was a famous political figure) and while her party was anti-Jew during his day, Muslims are a much easier target now, being both a larger portion of the population than Jews ever were and having visually distinct religious practices.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Blade
Knight


Joined: 14 Sep 2011
Posts: 467
Location: France

PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Short answer: nobody can tell. Analysts and polls have been shown to be unreliable, so we just don't have anything but "general feeling" to guess what could happen.

Long answer:

To keep it simple, let's see the chances of the major candidates of getting to the second round:
- Mélenchon: Very unlikely. It wouldn't be difficult for him to reach 10%, but getting higher is very hard. For many people he's still "extreme left" and "extreme left is as bad as extreme right".

- Hamon: Unlikely. Due to his link to the Parti Socialiste, he doesn't have the same "extreme left" tag, but is platform is still very leftist. If it wasn't for Mélenchon, he could get the 20ish percent that would make it possible to reach the second round but as it stands he's losing voters to Mélenchon and isn't able to reach far enough to the centre, especially with Macron there.

An alliance of Mélenchon and Hamon could hope getting to the second round, but Mélenchon is convinced he can succeed by himself, and his echo chamber agrees with him. Besides, he's got some major disagreements with Hamon. Meanwhile, Hamon considers himself as the de facto left candidate, since he's from the Parti Socialiste and the Parti Socialiste is the historical main left party.

- Macron: He's got his chances. Centre-left people see him as centre-left and centre-right people see him as centre-right, so he might be able to gather enough support to get there. However, he's now the main target of the right, so he'll be under heavy fire. He also seems to have media support, which is something many voters hate in France.

- Fillon: Maybe. He got caught for paying his wife and children with public money. Pretty bad when you're the candidate of virtue, rigor, etc. This meant some right voters will flee to Marine, while others will go to Macron. It's still possible for him to get to the second round, because since people hated the left president, they turn to the right.

- Marine: Very likely. She's got a strong support and it's unlikely to change. No matter what hit her, the attacks will be seen as attacks of the establishment against the outsider.

What to expect for the second round?

Hamon vs Marine: Many right voters have moved from "All but the extreme right" to "All but the socialists", very difficult for Hamon to win this one, unless he's able to get some of the disenfranchised voters who'd be likely to prefer a left alternative to the hard right.

Macron vs Marine: Macron, hands down. He's not scary enough for right voters, and is still better than Marine for everyone else.

Fillon vs Marine: Fillon, because the left voters would rather have him than Marine.

A second round without Marine: Still possible, but not with the current situation.

We're still a few months away, so anything can still happen. Generally speaking the French presidential elections get decided in the last weeks.


Last edited by Blade on Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Blicero
Knight-Baron


Joined: 07 May 2009
Posts: 979

PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Blade wrote:
Short answer: nobody can tell. Analysts and polls have been shown to be unreliable, so we just don't have anything but "general feeling" to guess what could happen.


Has polling for French elections been shown to be inaccurate in the past, or is this a statement you're making based on 2016's election upsets?
_________________
Out beyond the hull, mucoid strings of non-baryonic matter streamed past like Christ's blood in the firmament.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Blade
Knight


Joined: 14 Sep 2011
Posts: 467
Location: France

PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

In 2002, everyone was surprised when Jean-Marie Le Pen got in the second round of the presidential elections.

Since then, they've been pretty reliable, but everyone could guess which way the wind was blowing.

This time, for both primaries, the polls were wrong. So wrong that in each case the winner was the one they dismissed as "the third man". From what I've read, they say that a lot of people just don't know who to vote for and decide themselves at the last minute.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Ancient History
Invincible Overlord


Joined: 18 Aug 2010
Posts: 10730

PostPosted: Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

https://www.buzzfeed.com/nicolemiles/how-i-learned-to-draw-black-people-like-me

"straight up Golliwog"
_________________
The Unpublishable - Updates Fridays between midnight and midnight | http://wikithulhu.com
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
PhoneLobster
King


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 6199

PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2017 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

They still sell those around here. The soft toy store in a nearby tourist town has a whole specialist golliwog section. I kid you not. Hell I even encountered a completely random display of them for sale at a service station on a major interstate highway just the other day.

The soft toy place is the worst. You round a corner of teddy bears and bam, a wall of those things out of nowhere. Staring at you. I'm pretty sure just seeing that made me 10% more racist.
_________________
Phonelobster's Self Proclaimed Greatest Hits Collection : (no really, they are awesome)
Click here to see the hidden message (It might contain spoilers)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    The Gaming Den Forum Index -> MPSIMS All times are GMT
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 105, 106, 107
Page 107 of 107

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group