Good 3D printers and traditional games.

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hogarth
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Post by hogarth »

PhoneLobster wrote:If your business model is randomized miniatures a 3D printer does very little for you.
Who said anything about randomizing miniatures? I'm saying that big print runs are much more cost effective than small print runs, so print-on-demand will be only good for niche products that couldn't sell out a big print run in the first place.

Now if someone were claiming that 3D printing is more cost effective than traditional miniature manufacturing on a per-unit basis, that would be a reason to switch. But right now it looks like another of Lago's "why make billions when we can make...MILLIONS!!" business plans.
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Post by Murtak »

Lago PARANOIA wrote:I don't think that some Young Turk is going to roll by and demolish GW or anything with this technology
Why not? Sure, it is a long shot, but you have all the makings of a revolution.
- Startup costs are low, compared to the way things have been done before.
- You can rapidly innovate.
- You can start small and ramp up.
- Your users can make your product more attractive to others.
- Wargame rules completely optional, but would be a great bonus. You can also add your own wargame(s) as an afterthought.



I am sure there is a lot I am missing, but the general idea should probably work anyway.

Basically you need to set up website with an ordering service. You will want a 3D designer and a software guy, someone who works on your 3D printer. You put up a couple of miniatures generic enough to fit into a lot of games but awesome enough to actually want them. This is not trivial, but this is basically a one-time effort. You then sell these minis on demand. So far this sounds like something you can pull off with a couple grand, a garage and a lot of sweat.

Next you want plugins for popular 3D modeling software. As far as I can see those have already been done for you. You keep making new models, but now your users can also upload their own. Either you print them as is, or you charge for retouching and optimizing. Contests to "create your own mini" are optional, but will probably result in getting the rights to some great miniatures very cheaply.

You can offer knock-off versions of popular games, special miniatures to fill blanks in those games or even print your own wargame. Any or all of these are optional. Lastly you can offer printers and software to gaming shops or even to individual hobbyists.

You can get revenue from your online shop, software licenses, selling printer supplies and servicing or even a license cost per miniature printed. If you go with a low-risk model you'd only sell service and spare parts and your software. When a shop decides they want to print their own miniatures you invest nothing. You get some money for software that you already wrote, you get more money per year to cover for software updates, you get money for supplies, you get money to have a technician ready to jump into a car and start fixing printers. As far as I can tell this is exactly the gig that thousands of companies are already using.

And all it requires is cheap 3D printers and one groundbreaking application to get off the ground. Printers are getting cheaper. And some combination 3D-viewer / social network / shopping application will get written sooner or later.



If this idea ever gets off the ground I can not really see it not working. Dropping by a shop to on-demand-print a 10 year old miniature you stepped on the day before? Ordering a specific army list online, complete with posing options and a basic color scheme, to be delivered three days later? Getting to print your own miniature? Getting to print any miniature designed by one of the thousands of hobbyists out there? Printing obstacles, buildings, trees, hills, objectives, all to scale? Heck, you could scale that great terrain piece from another game that was just too big for your game down to be a perfect fit. How can GW compete with that? They can sue, but that only works for lookalikes. They can be cheaper, but this is probably not working even today. They can have prettier models - but that is not going to work if you are up against every hobbyist with a modeling program on the net. They could be more detailed, but even today some of those miniatures look awfully detailed.

Seriously, why wouldn't this work? All you need is a start. Once you start selling printers and services it should all be downhill. Of course the start is the hard part - but it seems obvious to me that this is doable.
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Post by Murtak »

hogarth wrote:Who said anything about randomizing miniatures? I'm saying that big print runs are much more cost effective than small print runs, so print-on-demand will be only good for niche products that couldn't sell out a big print run in the first place.
Big print runs need to be stored and shipped though. Of course printing ten thousand miniatures is cheaper than printing one of them. But similarly shipping one big crate of plastic pellets of cheaper than shipping ten thousand fragile miniatures, then storing them and then potentially losing money on them if they turn out to not be popular. I wouldn't be surprised if the average GW mini took a couple of months to sell, with half of them not ever getting sold at the regular price.
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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

hogarth wrote:No. For example, WotC already sells miniatures and they produce them in "large" batches using the "normal" process. How is a 3D printer supposed to help them again?
WotC's miniature selling model IMO didn't work because they:

A) Didn't go for the upmarket, which seems to be most of the appeal of miniatures. I like mono-color plastic miniatures, but apparently that's not what wargamers want.
B) Sold randomized miniatures. This leads me to believe that WotC doesn't know the first clue about how to market a wargame.
C) Didn't realize that the most important part of writing a wargame was making people want to play the various factions. Miniatures Handbook basically had two 'teams': Team Monster and Team Pretty, which is already an extension of what they were fucking doing with their basic game.

But probably the biggest reason why the miniatures line failed is because of the combat engine. Now while I love the Miniatures Handbook and I also think that trying to ease the D&D players into wargaming deserved a gamely try, I think it's obvious that when you're trying to break into an entrenched market like wargaming trying to shoehorn D&D mechanics into your new game isn't going to work.

If WotC was really serious about breaking into the wargame market they would've been more serious about making quality miniatures, making a wargame-specific setting, making wargame specific rules, and not fucking over people who wanted an all-lizardman army. What does this have to do with 3D printing? Hopefully when the costs go down and they're scratching their heads over how to grow the pie higher, they'll learn their lessons from the fiasco of the 3E (and 4E, come to think) miniatures line.
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by PhoneLobster »

hogarth wrote: But right now it looks like another of Lago's "why make billions when we can make...MILLIONS!!" business plans.
OK so a mass manufactured run of models is almost certainly ALWAYS going to be cheaper to print than a print on demand run.

But here is the thing.

That does not make it more profitable.

As already mentioned there is shipping, damaged stock, and the risk of poor sales of that print run.

Then you can add in failure to supply unexpected demand, or demand in specific regions or over a long period of time.

Print on demand may not have higher profits in a best case scenario but as long as your base cost/profits margin is doable it will always be the more stable and reliable business model.

And this is the really big thing here, be it for your "young turk" scenario, the "old gaming company catches on to a good idea scenario" and my own "how an individual franchise outlet should do this" scenario.

And I think that the last scenario, the individual franchise outlet is very much one of the most important in WHY this is a viable model.

GW and other miniatures gaming stores are INCREDIBLY UNSTABLE BUSINESSES.

From the "main branch" perspective you are running giant cheap print runs of crap and just selling them to a hungry maw of a vague and uncertain size.

From the individual store owner/manager's perspective though you are purchasing and storing a HUGE value of miniatures. The overhead costs alone to stock a store with miniatures are HUGE, and the value of those miniatures leaches away with dropping interest in older stocks and ridiculous theft and stock damage rates.

The risk of dropping a miniatures store into the red with just a few runs of "bad" stock no one wants, a major robbery event, a repeated failure to fill orders due to a surly distributor, or just a bad couple of months while your huge rotting capital investment fails to bring in returns, is pretty damn easy.

With print on demand your individual gaming outlet is MUCH more stable. The ONLY way they won't make a profit is if the local market just isn't there at all. If there IS a local community of a sufficient size to support the store then the store will cut a healthy profit, because the store will never end up with a vast pile of incredibly expensive crumbling shit that the local community randomly chooses to snub.

Now you may say "WTF does the distributer care, they get their cut selling to the chump store owners and don't care if they drive them out of business in the process" (and seriously, the prices and supply chains of GW prove that they are least don't give a shit if they drive their re distributors out of business on a regular basis, same goes for at least the Australian privateer press wholesale distributors)

But a less insane "mother company" or whatever you call it wants there to be more game stores because THAT grows their pie, that makes the hungry maw larger, makes it more stable, more predictable. Ultimately as a larger gaming company here you are actually selling those stores a business model, a brand name, access to your minis design server and software and promise that you won't sue them for printing your shit. And maybe you cut a smaller profit than you do selling mass print runs to that vast maw that so readily eats even unsaleable crap at it's own expense on a regular basis.

But your franchises can exist in a broader range of regions and markets, against more entrenched competitors, they survive harsh times more easily, a few bad releases will hardly hurt them at all and you will ultimately have more potentially viable franchises than you would if you copied existing business models in the industry (which are notoriously unstable).

A less profitable business model can defeat a more profitable one easily. Just because GW itself makes more money than your mother company doesn't mean dick if your franchises can come to town and survive poor marketing decisions and weaker gaming communities that GW franchises can't.

I mean sure GW ultimately could try and use that money to try some desperate innovative strategy to save it's ass... but you know it won't.

And in the mean time 3D printers march forward and threaten to wipe away large pieces of the GW style pie with or without an actual competitor using the technology.
Lago wrote:Hopefully when the costs go down and they're scratching their heads over how to grow the pie higher, they'll learn their lessons from the fiasco of the 3E (and 4E, come to think) miniatures line.
Here is a whole 'nuther branch of regular gaming.

Same sort of software and technology set up right. But this time in the hands of "Sensible Alternate Universe WOTC".

So using technology similar to the whole "print your own Spore critter" junk, which lets remember already exists and has for a while.

And then tying that in to the "online D&D services business model" bullshit that WOTC has been wanking over unsuccessfully since the failed 3.0 character builder.

I mean we have all known for some time that if WOTC didn't have UTTERLY RETARDED programmers working for them they could long since have made that online D&D service they wanted to actually be something people would sensibly want to use. The potential services they could offer are huge.

Print on demand online model ordering would certainly be a REALLY REALLY attractive aspect of that service.

You could offer...
1) DMs the opportunity to custom print the exact monsters and NPCs they want for a specific adventure or campaign, even a custom one they wrote themselves (ideally written and stored online using the custom tools of the service of course, thought that's a whole other story). And if all your evil cult skeletons need to where a stylish red smurf hat? NO PROBLEM, because your mini's "range" is stupidly adaptable.

2) DMs can use your spore style monster builder to make custom monsters or modify existing monsters with equipment and scars and extra tentacles or size upgrades (and certainly anything that corresponds to your monster advancement rules, heck your Monster Advancement tool on your service probably auto generates a spore style monster, or at least drops you into the editor at your option with the additional expected parts sitting in your working pallet)

3) Players can totally get custom prints of their character. They can reprint them with different gear, in a different pose, on a horse, on a dragon, in the nude holding a soap on a rope, at a higher level with a hook in the place of their right hand, on fire, dead on the ground holding a "Medic!" sign, transformed into a mutant two headed zombie lord. They could put their face on the model, they can put their favorite Justin Beiber face on it, they could sculpt it themselves in the editor, they can pay extra to have some under paid sucker hand paint it, they don't have to sort through mountains of minis looking for that one something "kinda like" their character, they just click their character portrait and equipment lists in the online tools and drop into the spore style character editor. And they don't just buy one, the suckers will buy one every time they get a new fancy looking sword or new pretty dress, every damn level up, with variants for different steeds or states like dead, frozen, enlarged or reduced personed, mage armored, wounded, alternate formed, voltroned into a giant robot, on fire, asleep, in the bath. You turn many of your ONE model customers into customers who will buy a god damn box of the things.

It would be one of the big money makers in your milk'em'dry online D&D tools "service". Suckers go on it to plan their campaign or their character sheet with useful functional tools and their god damn dynamic character portrait and NPC libraries link right into the editors and the online print on demand store. ITS A GOD DAMN GOLD MINE.

DO it well and overnight your WOTC service largely obsoletes even the nicer old school RPG model makers like Reaper in the eyes of half your players.
Last edited by PhoneLobster on Thu Oct 21, 2010 1:30 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Post by Username17 »

Phone Lobster wrote:Print on demand may not have higher profits in a best case scenario but as long as your base cost/profits margin is doable it will always be the more stable and reliable business model.
This. This times infinity kajillion.

Selling minis is a incredibly unstable enterprise. If some guy who frequents your local store decides to start play Cryx tomorrow, you will sell five blister packs of Bane Thralls, tomorrow. If he doesn't, you will not sell those Bane Thralls tomorrow, or the day after that. You may go months or years before those blisters move. And that's an entire spoke on the rack, repeat for every possible unit in the game. For Warhammer, it's even worse. If someone decides to start a Dwarves Army, they will but several dozen dwarves, tomorrow. And if they don't, you are sitting on even more stock that will just sit there for months or years.

And that isn't hyperbole or anything. Go into your local store sometime and look through all the GW crap and try to count up how many kilograms of metal is stuff that has been out of print for more than 2 years. Unless your local store regularly discounts the fuck out of backstock, I'm pretty sure that number is more than one. To add to the hilarity, go ahead and check to see how many blisters they have of games that simply don't exist anymore and probably won't get purchased for any reason (save possibly for use as a character model). Again, it's a really significantly non-zero number.

Even if GW had extremely perfect intelliegence about how many of each kind of mini was going to sell, they have no way of knowing where they will sell. When they ship a bunch of dwarves to some GW store, they have no idea if that store will in fact ever sell those dwarves. Which means that even if they knew precisely how many dwarves they were going to sell, they'd still have to way overprint them, just to be sure they had enough on hand everywhere to not miss sales. The last thing they want is someone to walk in having decided to play Dwarves only to find that there aren't enough to get an army started at the store and then go with their second choice - of Menoth.

I don't know what the per-model savings would be to cast a fuck tonne of minis all at once versus doing a print-on-demand scheme. But it would have to be titanic to make up for the costs of shipping minis around the world and leaving them in warehouses and on shelves for years at a time.

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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

hogarth wrote:
Now if someone were claiming that 3D printing is more cost effective than traditional miniature manufacturing on a per-unit basis, that would be a reason to switch. But right now it looks like another of Lago's "why make billions when we can make...MILLIONS!!" business plans.
Now that PhoneLobster and Frank have set you straight, I demand the apology I have RICHLY coming to me. :kindacool:
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by Koumei »

Lago PARANOIA wrote: Now that PhoneLobster and Frank have set you straight, I demand the apology I have RICHLY coming to me. :kindacool:
There's a thread for that, isn't there?
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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

That's for sincere apologies. I want a reluctant, passive-aggressive one.
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by hogarth »

I love this thread. A bunch of yahoos sitting around saying: "I don't know what it costs to have inventory in a warehouse, but I bet it's, like, totally a lot!!!" MBAs for everyone!
PhoneLobster wrote: Print on demand may not have higher profits in a best case scenario but as long as your base cost/profits margin is doable it will always be the more stable and reliable business model.
What does "doable" mean? There's a huge difference between a hobbyist who's doing something as a labour of love and a company with a fiduciary responsibility to its stockholders.

I'll give you an example. Paizo gets the 400 page Shackled City hardcover printed in China in colour on glossy, high-quality paper. It probably costs them something like $15 (? wild-ass guess) and they sell it for $60 retail with the price eventually dropping to something like $30 when they're trying to clear out their stock.

Now compare that to the War of the Burning Sky print-on-demand colour hardcover that's available. It's 700-odd pages, and according to this thread the print-on-demand company charges them over $100 to print; retail is $200. I don't know what the paper quality is like.

Fifteen dollars vs. one hundred dollars is a huge difference. Now I don't know if the difference between miniatures made in China and miniatures printed on demand in the good, ol' U. S. of A. is that big or not, but neither do you.
PhoneLobster wrote:Print on demand may not have higher profits in a best case scenario but as long as your base cost/profits margin is doable it will always be the more stable and reliable business model.
Believe it or not, most investors would rather invest in a company with higher profits and a stable and reliable business model. Funny how that works.
FrankTrollman wrote:I don't know what the per-model savings would be to cast a fuck tonne of minis all at once versus doing a print-on-demand scheme. But it would have to be titanic to make up for the costs of shipping minis around the world and leaving them in warehouses and on shelves for years at a time.
To me, it sounds like you're saying that the miniatures industry sucks, with inventory moving very slowly. So how is raising the per-unit cost of my product supposed to make me rich again?

----

Don't get me wrong -- this print-on-demand thing is great for hobbyists; they can see their ideas take physical form and maybe even make some money doing it (see my link above to the guy already selling print-on-demand miniatures). Or at least make money if you consider the cost of your time worth nothing.
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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

hogarth wrote: To me, it sounds like you're saying that the miniatures industry sucks, with inventory moving very slowly. So how is raising the per-unit cost of my product supposed to make me rich again?
Imagine that I have a product that costs 45 dollars to make on demand but 30 to shit out in a batch. I sell both for 60 dollars. I made 100 in a batch but the demand is only for 65 miniatures, about two-thirds of 'em. The rest of them will never sell. They'll just sit around gathering dust until I throw them out or they get sold way past the point in which the capital mattered to me.

On demand profit: Gross ($4200) - Cost to Print ($2925) = $1275
Batch Profit: Profit ($4200) - Cost to Print ($3000) = $1200

The closer the batch guy comes to estimating the actual demand the more profit he'll make and vice-versa. I personally doubt that in any hobby based on collecting a product that anyone will regularly do better than guessing the amount of demand within 60-70%.

And this is of course completely handwaving shipping/storage costs. These will of course eat into the bottom line of the batch producers even more.

But then it assumes that an on-demand 3D printer will ever get to the point where it can make an as-good miniature that only costs 50% more than to do it in a batch. That seems like a fair estimate personally, but who can predict the whims of technology?
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by hogarth »

Lago PARANOIA wrote:Imagine that I have a product that costs 45 dollars to make on demand but 30 to shit out in a batch. I sell both for 60 dollars. I made 100 in a batch but the demand is only for 65 miniatures, about two-thirds of 'em. The rest of them will never sell. They'll just sit around gathering dust until I throw them out or they get sold way past the point in which the capital mattered to me.
Most businesses have something called "sales" in order to liquidate old merchandise. If they even get three dollars each for the remaining 35 miniatures, your (completely made-up) example below fails.

Now having said that, in the case of the specific company GW I don't know what they do when they make old miniatures "obsolete". Maybe they do just throw stuff away. That does not make it a smart business practice.
LagoParanoia wrote:On demand profit: Gross ($4200) - Cost to Print ($2925) = $1275
Batch Profit: Profit ($4200) - Cost to Print ($3000) = $1200

The closer the batch guy comes to estimating the actual demand the more profit he'll make and vice-versa. I personally doubt that in any hobby based on collecting a product that anyone will regularly do better than guessing the amount of demand within 60-70%.

And this is of course completely handwaving shipping/storage costs. These will of course eat into the bottom line of the batch producers even more.
Storage is an issue, but you're completely ass-backwards about shipping. The per-unit cost of sending a box of 50 miniatures to a retail outlet is much less than the cost of sending 50 boxes with one miniature each to customers.
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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

hogarth wrote:If they even get three dollars each for the remaining 35 miniatures, your (completely made-up) example below fails.
And your example assumes that a store was able to move all of their merchandise in the first place. Hogarth, have you ever been to a bookstore or a video game store? There are products that you can get on the cheap (like seriously 1.99 for a video game) and they will never ever sell.

I think your assuming that the store regularly selling 2/3rds of their merchandise at full price and then making the rest off of sales is laughably optimistic, especially for something like friggin' miniatures. But then again, batch printing only works if you CORRECTLY ESTIMATE THE DEMAND OF YOUR PRODUCT IN THE FIRST PLACE; and if you actually had the kind of skill to regularly nail down the demand of a heterogeneous product like collectable toys you probably wouldn't be working in the industry.
hogarth wrote:That does not make it a smart business practice.
In all seriousness I bet vast majority of stock at a bookstore or a video game store is destroyed. There's seriously no reason to keep on hand a hundred copies of Madden '08 on the off chance someone will buy it for 2.99 in the future. It wastes space if you keep it in the store and costs money to store it.

I don't know the mind of a wargamer. Maybe the people in that business are interested in routinely buying miniatures for a defunct or years-out-of-date metagame. Hardcore Yu-Gi-Oh! fans are, so you might be correct. Who knows, but I do know that immediately calling the practice ignorant without any supporting facts is, well, ignorant.
hogarth wrote: Storage is an issue, but you're completely ass-backwards about shipping. The per-unit cost of sending a box of 50 miniatures to a retail outlet is much less than the cost of sending 50 boxes with one miniature each to customers.
If the retail outlet offered the service of mailing their stupid crap to the customer they would more than definitely charge the customer the cost of shipping it. They can't do the reverse.
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by hogarth »

Lago PARANOIA wrote:
hogarth wrote:If they even get three dollars each for the remaining 35 miniatures, your (completely made-up) example below fails.
And your example assumes that a store was able to move all of their merchandise in the first place.
What the fuck? You're complaining about the example and it's YOUR DAMN EXAMPLE.

:bash:
Lago PARANOIA wrote:In all seriousness I bet vast majority of stock at a bookstore or a video game store is destroyed.
For video games and hardcover books, most leftover merchadise gets sent to a liquidator of some sort, I suspect. There are cases of video games being destroyed, though (e.g. the Atari video game burial of 1983).

For softcover books, the paper gets recycled.
Last edited by hogarth on Fri Oct 22, 2010 3:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Post by cthulhu »

Lago PARANOIA wrote: In all seriousness I bet vast majority of stock at a bookstore or a video game store is destroyed. There's seriously no reason to keep on hand a hundred copies of Madden '08 on the off chance someone will buy it for 2.99 in the future. It wastes space if you keep it in the store and costs money to store it.
Yeah, but the *residual value in minatures is much higher. Reality is Space Marine models don't go out of date.
Last edited by cthulhu on Fri Oct 22, 2010 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

hogarth wrote:What the fuck? You're complaining about the example and it's YOUR DAMN EXAMPLE.
Uh, no. I used an optimistic model (2/3rds of the miniatures sold!) and you made it MORE optimistic (2/3rds of miniatures sold full price AND the rest find buyers eventually) to negate my point. You changed the bounds of my example to fit your purposes, so it's no longer my example.
hogarth wrote: For video games and hardcover books, most leftover merchadise gets sent to a liquidator of some sort, I suspect.
Obviously when I meant destroyed I meant removed from the store in such a way that they'll never directly make a profit off of it. Yes, recycling the paper in a book isn't quite the same thing as burying it in a landfill, but from a profit perspective I doubt it matters much.
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

cthulhu wrote: Yeah, but the retained value in minatures is much higher. Reality is Space Marine models don't go out of date.
Neither do certain books, but after a certain point no one is really going to buy much of Eragon or How to Make Friends and Influence People anyway.
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by cthulhu »

Oh yeah totally, but you can quite feasibly liquidate a bunch of them near end of life and it's likely someone will buy them.
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Post by Lago PARANOIA »

I guess without hard numbers we're just throwing conjecture at each other.

Weren't there a couple of Denners out there who own a gaming store? I'd like to get their perspective on this.
Josh Kablack wrote:Your freedom to make rulings up on the fly is in direct conflict with my freedom to interact with an internally consistent narrative. Your freedom to run/play a game without needing to understand a complex rule system is in direct conflict with my freedom to play a character whose abilities and flaws function as I intended within that ruleset. Your freedom to add and change rules in the middle of the game is in direct conflict with my ability to understand that rules system before I decided whether or not to join your game.

In short, your entire post is dismissive of not merely my intelligence, but my agency. And I don't mean agency as a player within one of your games, I mean my agency as a person. You do not want me to be informed when I make the fundamental decisions of deciding whether to join your game or buying your rules system.
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Post by Username17 »

A bunch of yahoos sitting around saying: "I don't know what it costs to have inventory in a warehouse, but I bet it's, like, totally a lot!!!" MBAs for everyone!
Actually, I do know how much it costs to warehouse things, and it is a lot. Hard example: Runner Havens was given a large print run, and cost less per book than the multiple smaller (3k books) print runs that were given to Runner's Companion. Nevertheless, because of interest and warehousing costs, Runner Havens lost money, while Runner's Companion made money overall.
Now compare that to the War of the Burning Sky print-on-demand colour hardcover that's available. It's 700-odd pages, and according to this thread the print-on-demand company charges them over $100 to print; retail is $200. I don't know what the paper quality is like.
That's a Vanity Press, which is entirely different. Obviously the Print on Demand company is making money charging over $100 bucks for that. Actually, they are making a lot of money, relatively speaking.

The question being asked about print on demand minis is not "can on make money money hiring someone to do print on demand for us?" You might as well ask yourself if you can compete with GW by hiring them to cast your miniatures for you! The question is whether it is possible to buy the actual machines and print minis for people right there in a store. And that's more equivalent to being a vanity press than to hiring one.

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Post by Orca »

No hard numbers still, but a few things to check out before you can be clear on the price. My experience with ordinary office printers is that while the obvious inputs & costs - paper, toner, depreciation - make up most of the cost, past the first year maintenance and service calls become significant costs (in the first year training is a significant but hard-to-measure cost). If you run printers past the end of their scheduled lifespan maintenance & service dominate the costs.

If the company making them wants you to move to a new model of printer, the toner can double in cost while dropping in quality.

(Edit) My point is that you want to be careful about headline prices. If your cutting-edge $2K minature-printing printer requires a new $1K printhead every hundred prints, or if it breaks down and needs someone to come and fix it every month, or there's some other horrible cost, that nominal price is kind of irrelevant.
Last edited by Orca on Sat Oct 23, 2010 8:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by TheFlatline »

The problem right now with 3d printers is that they're fucking slow.

If I order 20 figs from a print-on-demand right now, it's probably going to take all day to print them all. And I'm the only customer that can be purchasing from that machine during that time.

The fastest demonstration I've seen dates from 3 years ago and a 1 inch tall by 1/2 inch in diameter cup with 40 thousandths of an inch thick walls and it took 10 minutes.

I'm going to figure a solid figurine with a lot more detail on it than a piece of stemware will take 15-20 minutes per fig. That's 3 figures per hour. Printing up a squad from Warhammer with 20 figs is going to take about 7 hours. Printing up a tree of 5 of them wouldn't be any more efficient, the printing process would be the same, because the printer head would have to still print out every single model every single time.

I'm not sure how expensive that machine was, but let's say it was 2,000 dollars. If you paid 5 bucks a fig for plastic, not counting materials you'd have to make 400 models, and at 20 minutes a pop, that's over 100 hours of production time. With negligible power and material cost off, using a pre-existing model, you're looking at around 20 bucks of revenue per hour of operation. Not bad, but not fantastic either.

3d printing for figs is a *very* interesting idea, but it's not a valid business idea right now. It's too slow, and the revenue is pretty slim. When you can spit out a Tyranid model in 1-2 minutes, then we'll be talking about a viable solution. Even then however, you'll still probably be paying similar prices to metal figs since that one machine can't do anything other than produce *your* figs.

The only real advantage is that you'd have essentially a one-stop-shop assuming all the fig makers got on board. The same machine could kick out Warmachine, Warhammer, 40k, Ral Partha, Battletech, and D&D figs. You'd just pay (significant) licensing fees.
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Post by PhoneLobster »

TheFlatline wrote:The problem right now with 3d printers is that they're fucking slow.

If I order 20 figs from a print-on-demand right now, it's probably going to take all day to print them all.
3d Printers ARE slow. Damn slow.

But traditional "old school" casting methods aren't exactly fast either. Even mass produced plastic products take a hell of a while and THOSE all involving significant increases in time due to shipping. And significant increases in cost due to storage, and significant increases in difficulty in even providing customers with the actual products they want AT ALL.

In the mean time your time estimates are not only based on some pretty sketchy speculation they miss out on several points.

1) There is no reason why the print on demand game store HAS to be "instant". Customers will totally be fine with "come back in X hours" or "your minis will be ready tomorrow", "you will have to wait for the 3-o'clock batch print run that usually takes 2 hours". As it is customers in these stores already wait days, weeks, and MONTHS for their orders to come in due to the time delays inherit in the current system.

2) Game stores can and do have some pretty damn low sale turnover rates. If a store is getting a turnover capable of actually stressing their ability to print it they are running so far into profit they can totally afford to expand.

3) Your stores can run multiple printers, that would be fine. And indeed the ability to buy and run multiple machines makes for a pretty smooth scaling expansion option if your store is successful.

4) Your stores can use the more expensive printers that go faster have a larger print volume/area, and have good job batching and junk.

5) There is no reason your printers can't be running at night as well as in the day. They should only be stopped when they don't have orders waiting, or if they are waiting on a big batch job, or in need of maintenance.

6) You totally don't have to print ONE miniature at a time per printer. These printers can and do print complex objects with interlocking separate parts, they can totally print entire squads of guys, the larger ones could print a whole damn army, a BIG damn army, in one go. Further still to my admittedly limited understanding the primary time costs on these things is to do with the incremental nature of the Z-height between printing the 2D layers of the product, effectively meaning printing almost any number of minis together will not significantly impact printing speed compared to the z-height of the tallest minis in the batch.

So basically the big time limiter ends up being whether there is enough "floor space" left in the 3-o'clock/overnight printing job to fit your latest mini order in. And if there isn't that guy can just wait because you have a full fucking print job and are running at maximum profit capacity anyway.
Last edited by PhoneLobster on Sat Oct 23, 2010 9:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by Murtak »

cthulhu wrote:
Lago PARANOIA wrote: In all seriousness I bet vast majority of stock at a bookstore or a video game store is destroyed. There's seriously no reason to keep on hand a hundred copies of Madden '08 on the off chance someone will buy it for 2.99 in the future. It wastes space if you keep it in the store and costs money to store it.
Yeah, but the *residual value in minatures is much higher. Reality is Space Marine models don't go out of date.
Space Marines don't, at least int he foreseeable future. But I have personally seen at least a dozen games totally tank. That's hundreds of minis that are utterly useless, for each of those games, for each store that sells them. Those minis end up in the grab bin, where you are lucky if someone picks them up on a whim 5 years later. With printers that risk disappears. Completely. What's more, if someone wants to try the game ten years later they can do so. If someone on the internet designs a homebrew wargame they can just pick minis from any game ever made and designate those as the minis to use for his game.

Until then we are stuck with Space marines, precisely because they don't go out of date. And they don't go out of date because they are the only game in town.
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Post by Username17 »

How are those Fimir and Squat miniatures going? Good?

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