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erik
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I dunno Schleiermacher, even if all the 3 days of shutdown (over a weekend) bought us was a vote on a DACA bill within the next 17 days, that's not too bad. Definitely better than whatever else was going to be on the docket for the next couple weeks.

If McConnell's very specific and time-limited promise to Democratic leadership turns out to be a lie, then he's shown he cannot deal, and he'll never get an agreement on anything. He's not that kind of stupid. There's a big difference in lying to the American people versus lying to the person who you are trying to make a deal with. Trump doesn't understand that, but McConnell does.
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Kaelik
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Schleiermacher wrote:
The point of sticking to their guns would have been to show that they actually meant to fight for DACA as they had promised to do. There's no reason to believe now that they'll be any less tractable on February 8th.


"If an assassin agrees to wait 3 weeks to kill me for a billion dollars, then OF COURSE I believe that in 3 weeks when he comes back he will give me a year extension for 0 dollars."

The democrats being "equally" as tractable in February would require DACA compromises because this time they were paid in CHIP, and next time they can't be paid in CHIP.
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Thaluikhain
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 1:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Schleiermacher wrote:
The point of sticking to their guns would have been to show that they actually meant to fight for DACA as they had promised to do.


Ending the shutdown after getting something allows them to end the shutdown without losing face. They got to demonstrate they aren't afraid of using their power, without actually having the downsides of using it for long.

Now, sure, a better demonstration if they'd used it for longer, and shown they were willing to sacrifice lots of poor people. But they have to sacrifice lots of poor people to do that.
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DSMatticus
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Schleirmacher wrote:
But I did know that. You can all think I'm an idiot, but please credit me with actually finding out what's happening before I form an opinion about it.

This conversation has taught me to credit you with nothing, possibly not even a basic grasp of cause and effect or simple negotiation. Let me be clear; your decision to insinuate that six years of CHIP funding doesn't count as a 'real' Democratic victory in the shutdown negotiations because Republicans caved on that in the first bill instead of the second is among the stupidest thing I have ever heard.

Let us be perfectly fucking clear. It's early-mid Janaury. CHIP is unfunded. DACA is at the mercy of the courts. The 2018 budget has thus far been funded by a series of short-term continuing resolutions. Democrats want CHIP and DACA. Republicans want to pass a budget. Republicans are keeping CHIP hostage because they plan to use it to buy Democratic votes in a time of need. There is a bipartisan committee working on a DACA compromise, with the implication being that if the negotiations break down Democrats stop voting on the continuing resolutions and the government will shut down. Trump is largely on board with these negotiations until someone in the White House whispers in his ear "we can't do that, it's not racist enough" and then suddenly he's not on board anymore. Democrats are left baffled. Republicans throw up their hands and cry "fuck it. We give up. He's a moron, and you're bluffing. Please be bluffing." Democrats say "we want CHIP and DACA, and we'll give you your budget. You let us know when you can manage that."

Have I set the fucking scene for you? Do you understand the actors, their leverage, and their goals? Democratic support for the continuing resolutions was conditional on the DACA negotiations making progress, and Trump has just torpedoed the DACA negotiations!

Republicans (Paul Ryan, specifically) offer CHIP in exchange for a 30-day continuing resolution. If Democrats had not demanded CHIP in the first place, Republicans would have kept it in reserve for the next time they wanted to try and force Democrat support. CHIP is on the table because Republicans believe it is valuable enough to buy them some more continuing resolutions from the Democrats, and since DACA negotiations have broken down Republicans have to do something to bring Democrats back on board. Democrats kill it dead anyway, because they want CHIP and DACA and this is only CHIP. They kill it dead despite it being only 30-day resolution, because everything thus far has been a fucking short-term resolution, and they drew the line in the sand on more continuing resolutions at CHIP and DACA.

Republicans (McConnell, specifically) offer CHIP and a promise to hold a vote on some kind of DACA legislation over the next 17 days in exchange for a 17-day continuing resolution. This is CHIP, and it is a promise to resume some kind of progress on DACA. No, it's not as good as passing DACA legislation. It also isn't a blowjob from your celebrity crush. It is a tentative return to the status quo before Trump blew everything up, except 1) Republicans have lost a bargaining chip (see what I did there), and 2) McConnell has committed to a public vote on DACA that will put his party's senators on the record and write a bunch of attack ads. If McConnell backs down on that, then Democrats are free to retaliate shortly into February by giving him fucking nothing.

Trump misplayed and Democrats fucking won. It is really that goddamn simple. We got something for free, and now McConnell either has to make a liar of himself or embarrass his party. It is a weaker position regardless. Is it a weak enough position to get us DACA? No, probably not. If you think a government shutdown will get you DACA, you are probably wrong. The House is not going to pass DACA protections. It's simply not. It is simply too fucking racist. I would be more than happy to be proved wrong, but I don't expect to be - not by whatever vote McConnell ends up holding and not by a government shutdown. But nonetheless we got CHIP for free and McConnell has resumed DACA negotiations from a weaker position than he had before Trump torpedoed them.

Do you fucking get it yet? I really do not know how to be clearer. There is fucking nothing you can do from here except whine about how you wanted Republicans to pass all the Democratic legislation you want them to immediately and then build a golden statue of you next to the Washington Monument. There are limits to how much "but they didn't win enough!" bullshit I can stand, because it's goddamn infantile.


Last edited by DSMatticus on Tue Jan 23, 2018 4:47 pm; edited 1 time in total
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RobbyPants
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

DSMatticus wrote:

Trump misplayed and Democrats fucking won.

Just to make sure I'm remembering Trump's role in this: are you referring to when Trump initially said he'd back anything put in front of him, and then suddenly changed his mind in bad faith?
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Josh_Kablack
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 23, 2018 10:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

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Ancient History
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

DSMatticus wrote:
We got something for free, and now McConnell either has to make a liar of himself or embarrass his party.

I'm just going to throw this out there: McConnell is already a notorious and massive liar who cannot be trusted, and it is impossible to actually embarrass the GOP at this point - anybody that scrupled about such little things as breaking faith left the party's hall of power a long time ago. So this isn't a glass half full - it's Lucy promising to let Charlie Brown kick the football three weeks from now.
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erik
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Yeah, but that was him lying to American people, who he needs fuck all from. I imagine he lies to us just for fun and sport. But if he wants to get and Democrat senate votes which he needs since he cannot wrangle 50 Republican votes, then he cannot totally go back on his word. I imagine he will at least adhere to the letter of his agreement. We will have to wait and see how much of a farce it becomes.

[edit: oops, forgot...

I'm wondering if the narrative that the Dems lost big may be helpful to them at the second round. It will make sure that they are held to either getting some substance, or a shutdown for round 2. And it lets the Republicans save face because they basically lost. If the Republicans were publicly acknowledged as failures in the last deal, then I have to believe it would be even harder for them to come to the table without extracting even more ridiculous concessions.


Last edited by erik on Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:20 am; edited 1 time in total
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Kaelik
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

My theory is that he will have the senate vote, then let the house kill DACA so it's not his fault.
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deaddmwalking
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

In any case, having the government shut down hurts a lot of people that Democrats don't want to hurt. Getting funding for CHIP was important. Going through this whole exercise again in 2 weeks means Democrat's didn't lose any bargaining position (and in fact, proved that they're capable of standing firm).
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DSMatticus
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 5:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Ancient History wrote:
DSMatticus wrote:
We got something for free, and now McConnell either has to make a liar of himself or embarrass his party.

I'm just going to throw this out there: McConnell is already a notorious and massive liar who cannot be trusted, and it is impossible to actually embarrass the GOP at this point - anybody that scrupled about such little things as breaking faith left the party's hall of power a long time ago. So this isn't a glass half full - it's Lucy promising to let Charlie Brown kick the football three weeks from now.

He's a Republican, of course he's a lying piece of shit with a tenth the shame of a normal human being. But that's been true for the entirety of the DACA negotiations, and people weren't annoying me with their stupid bullshit when 2018 started. This impasse resulted in a return to the status quo where the two parties are negotiating an almost certainly doomed compromise (because the House), except Republicans have less leverage and have made a public commitment. That's it! That's the entire news story! There's no reason to start bitching right now, and two reasons to cheer - one significant for both its political capital and human toll, one less so.

Trump ruined everything by putting his foot in his mouth and Republicans gave up their bargaining CHIP just to get back what they had before - continuing resolutions in exchange for ongoing talks on DACA. It's literally two steps back, one step forward for the Republicans. We want Republicans to play the game this poorly every time, and it's a shame they fucking don't.
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RobbyPants
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

erik wrote:
Yeah, but that was him lying to American people, who he needs fuck all from. I imagine he lies to us just for fun and sport. But if he wants to get and Democrat senate votes which he needs since he cannot wrangle 50 Republican votes, then he cannot totally go back on his word. I imagine he will at least adhere to the letter of his agreement. We will have to wait and see how much of a farce it becomes.

It's not a matter of wrangling 50 votes; these types of budget votes can't go through the reconciliatory process, so he needs 60. Even if he could get every Republican on board, he still needs a minimum of nine Democrats to vote for the bill.


erik wrote:

I'm wondering if the narrative that the Dems lost big may be helpful to them at the second round. It will make sure that they are held to either getting some substance, or a shutdown for round 2. And it lets the Republicans save face because they basically lost. If the Republicans were publicly acknowledged as failures in the last deal, then I have to believe it would be even harder for them to come to the table without extracting even more ridiculous concessions.

Maybe the Democrats could play the interview of McConnell from when the GOP was the minority party in the Senate, where he said that the purpose of the Senate is to slow things down and not let the majority party run roughshod over the minority.

I mean, we all know the man has no intellectual honesty, but I wonder how many voters are aware of McConnell's blatant double standard.
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erik
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 24, 2018 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Sorry. I meant when he needs 50 votes for anything not just this hypothetical bill. But yes. Even more screwed on votes where he needs 60.
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RobbyPants
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Soooo... it looks like Durbin and the Democrats caved and aren't tying DACA to the spending bill?

Quote:
“We’re viewing [immigration and spending] on separate terms because they are on separate paths,” Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said Tuesday.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s “procedural concession means we’ve got a deadline and a process,” Durbin added. “That to me is a significant step forward. It’s not everything I wanted, that’s for sure, but it’s a step forward.”


Quote:
“Feb. 8, we’re going to have another [stopgap bill]. But we have to have that budget agreement in order to move forward. … That’s the goal,” Murray said. “And then the deal is that if DACA is not part of that, then it will be the next thing considered.”


I guess I don't understand what exactly McConnell is bound to do from his promise Monday. Unless I'm misreading this, they can pass some long term bill, then McConnell can just say "lol no" and be done with it, right? Sure, he will have gone back on a promise, but is that really anything that will cost him down the road? And even if he does hold to his promise, it's not like he promised a yes vote; just that they'd have a vote. If it's not tied to spending, it seems less likely to pass.

Is the goal to show how racist the GOP in the Senate is, instead of waiting for it to fail in the House?
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Omegonthesane
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

The phrasing "stopgap bill" implies they aren't going to get a long term thing through without talking about DACA. As previously discussed before there aren't a lot of ways to remind everyone that the GOP are awful horrible people without actually causing a gov't shutdown when it's the GOP that want the state to fail not the Dems.
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DSMatticus
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

No, they're trying to put together a two-year budget independent of DACA. It looks like they are giving up the budget as a bargaining chip in exchange for more domestic funding.

It's a cave. I could not begin to tell you whether or not it's a good one. At the end of the day, Democrats control nothing and government shutdowns hurt the Democratic policy agenda (help people), not the Republican one (give money to the Koch brothers). This was probably how it was always going to play out. I might have played chicken a little longer, supporting only continuing resolutions until the token vote on DACA, and then when it failed offering to take it off the table in exchange for a longterm budget with more domestic funding - essentially what this is, but months down the road and with the DACA votes in the public record. It is foolish to trust McConnell, and the only way to enforce the agreement was to hold him by the balls with continuing resolutions. But DACA was and is doomed, and a tantrum doesn't really change that.

Also, to be depressingly honest, the government shutdown tactic was doomed as soon as the news coverage of it started coming in. Both Fox News and the NYTimes were calling it the Democrats' shutdown. There was a chance if the centrist shitstains' headlines and talking points were about what Republicans were fighting for in the budget negotiations (to defund domestic programs and kick people out of the country for being brown), but in the end it was "Democrats block bill, government shuts down, look at all the shit that happens."

We don't have a pet media. When we take hostages, we're everyone's bad guy. Fuck this country, fuck the media, etcetera, etcetera.
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Kaelik
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I don't think "some specific comments that aren't actually incompatible with more DACA shutdowns" is the best evidence for declaring they definitely caved. Even less when it's not even Majority leader.

If this was actually the official position of the Dems, you'd think that breaking this big story would have like, a quote from Schumer that actually said that conclusively instead of:

"They are on separate parallel tracks" and "We have a process" (no word on what happens if the process fails) from a guy who can't speak on behalf of the Dems.
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DSMatticus
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2018 12:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

It would be weird for Durbin to be off-script, and the quotes generally make it sound like this is a working plan and not some guy's rambling. Don't hold your breath that this is misrepresentative, though I suppose it could be tentative and everybody comes back tomorrow with a "nah, fuck this."

Also I would absolutely expect vague procedural speak instead of anything even remotely approaching "we're giving up the budget as a bargaining chip on DACA," because holy shit. Why would you ever just say that? That's not how politics works. There are elections and you have to win them and a lot of the people who vote in them are dumb with short attention spans. No, you don't just say "yeah, realistically we just gave up on DACA. But some numbers in the budget that you will never appreciate the meaning of (because the budget is incredibly abstract to you in both nature and scale) are somewhat better now."

But we'll see, I suppose.
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MGuy
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 27, 2018 4:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

While I wouldn't be surprised if Dems caved in completely on protecting DACA or only getting DACA by giving Trump the ability to come down even harder on immigrants than he's been with his cronies very publicly rounding brown people up, I'm going to withhold judgment until the 17th because failing on this when they have the leverage to get what they want would be ridiculously stupid for the Dems and would be worse because it would confirm all the negativity they received from their base on the mere delay and would also embolden the right and be a big talking point going all the way through the elections this year. I would think they could take a page out of the Right's playbook and commit to performing bombastic and sensationalist things in order to force media attentio so they could get a couple of key repeated phrases out there in the political discussion but they instead seem oddly apologetic about trying to protect innocent people from getting kicked out of the country due to some heat from the media.
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Maj
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 4:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Joe Kennedy 2020.
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Ed
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Maj wrote:
Joe Kennedy 2020.
I like Joe a lot. I've met him, I know some of his staff. He is a good dude.

I would overwhelmingly rather he run for governor this year because he is not ready for the big stage.
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Stahlseele
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Is anybody really ready for that ever?
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Maj
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

I said it because the Dems have no one to rally behind. They need someone with youth and charisma that people like. They need someone who can speak well. I said the same thing about Obama; the response was pretty much the same - he isn't ready - but he won. Unless someone else shows up, I think it's gonna be another Kennedy.
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deaddmwalking
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 31, 2018 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Mayor of Los Angeles Eric Garcetti.
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Ed
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 01, 2018 3:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Garcetti, Booker, Harris... if somebody from Massachusetts had to be up, I'd want Deval Patrick. (I don't want Deval Patrick.)
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