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angelfromanotherpin
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Like I said: alarmists.
National Geographic wrote:
Based on geologic evidence, Yellowstone has probably seen a continuous cycle of inflation and deflation over the past 15,000 years, and the cycle will likely continue, Smith said.

Surveys show, for example, that the caldera rose some 7 inches (18 centimeters) between 1976 and 1984 before dropping back about 5.5 inches (14 centimeters) over the next decade.

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deaddmwalking
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

The regular eruption cycle of Yellowstone is on a 600,000 to 800,000 year cycle (we think) and it's been just over 600,000 years. So there's a good chance that it happens in the next 200,000 years, but since recorded history is only 10,000 years worrying about it is giving us a lot of credit for not destroying ourselves in other ways (or not enough credit for escaping the planet).

As for the impact to agriculture (and thus starvation), I don't think it will be as severe as people fear. It is possible to grow plants using other sources of light besides the sun (illegal marijuana growers, I'm looking at you) and the Netherlands has become an agricultural powerhouse by using greenhouses.

So it could be potentially really severe, but probably wouldn't be. But Potential Destruction of all Life on Earth makes better headlines.
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Thaluikhain
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 09, 2017 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Depends what you mean by "really severe".

The US economy could be shaken fairly easily, and cause another GFC. I'd not be surprised if we saw one in a few years without a volcano.

For that matter, everything telling each other how bad things would be/are when it erupts would make things somewhat bad in of itself.
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Koumei
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

More to the point, what can we do to really encourage this eruption? I don't want to have spent this supervillain costume for nothing.
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Stahlseele
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

That might actually be as easy as finding a weak spot in the crust over there, burrowing down a little/lot, placing enough explosives and making them go boom. If you can create a hole, the pressure underneath will do the rest.
But this will probably be more likely to be a slow and steady release and not quite as catastrophic structural failurer as you would like to have for maximum visual impact.

And why am i trying to help you with . . ah, right, german, never mind . .
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Dimmy
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

deaddmwalking wrote:
It is possible to grow plants using other sources of light besides the sun (illegal marijuana growers, I'm looking at you)...


Yeah, and most of their proceeds get eaten up by their electric bills. Even for a high-profit cash crop like marijuana, it's totally unworkable on any kind of serious scale. Which is why for the past 10-15 years, the real players in the illegal marijuana business have been setting up sun-lit greenhouses and open-air plots in national and state parks.

deaddmwalking wrote:
...and the Netherlands has become an agricultural powerhouse by using greenhouses.


Weren't you the one decrying the use of inaccurate headlines? When Mr. Viviano reports that the Dutch are "...the globe’s number two exporter of food as measured by value" -- emphasis mine -- that doesn't actually mean they're cranking out the 100,000,000+ metric tons of grain you'd need to feed an entire continent if the Sun somehow got blotted out. It just means they're good at marketing overpriced organic tomatoes. And did you notice?

"The conversation rushes on to the use of LED lighting to permit 24-hour cultivation in precisely climate-controlled greenhouses. It then detours to a misconception that sustainable agriculture means minimal human intervention in nature."

Even WUR's spokesman knows you can't feed the whole world with LEDs. So he changes the subject; he starts talking about canals in Bali or something. Maybe someday, somebody will come up with something better than "over 10,000 lux, every single day, for free"...but right now, sunlight's the best option we've got. And if you're talking about feeding millions of people, it's the only option.
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Starmaker
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Dimmy wrote:

Weren't you the one decrying the use of inaccurate headlines? When Mr. Viviano reports that the Dutch are "...the globe’s number two exporter of food as measured by value" -- emphasis mine -- that doesn't actually mean they're cranking out the 100,000,000+ metric tons of grain you'd need to feed an entire continent if the Sun somehow got blotted out. It just means they're good at marketing overpriced organic tomatoes. And did you notice?

Scroll down for raw tons and tons per square mile.
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nockermensch
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

This should be crossposted to the Depths of Wikipedia thread:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fogponics

This seems to be the absolute best we have right now for growing tons of produce / area. It's, however, energy intensive as fuck.
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Orca
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Stahlseele wrote:
That might actually be as easy as finding a weak spot in the crust over there, burrowing down a little/lot, placing enough explosives and making them go boom. If you can create a hole, the pressure underneath will do the rest.
But this will probably be more likely to be a slow and steady release and not quite as catastrophic structural failurer as you would like to have for maximum visual impact.

And why am i trying to help you with . . ah, right, german, never mind . .

There's probably too low a proportion of molten rock in the magma chamber at the mo (6-8%) to get a really huge eruption at Yellowstone. You'd want somewhere that has erupted more recently. Incidentally Koumei, stay away from Lake Taupo.
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Stahlseele
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

If the swelling there has, indeed, gone back a bit, then yes, you are probably right.
Still, yellowstone is, i think, the biggest known potential super volcano right?
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koz
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Orca wrote:
You'd want somewhere that has erupted more recently. Incidentally Koumei, stay away from Lake Taupo.


Not to be a geographic pedant, but Koumei lives in Australia, while Lake Taupo is in New Zealand. That's basically about the distance from London to Moscow, for those counting at home.
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Stahlseele
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

While we are on topic:
san andreas fault . . how susceptible would that be to somebody who aquired one or more B53 devices?
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angelfromanotherpin
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Stahlseele wrote:
If the swelling there has, indeed, gone back a bit, then yes, you are probably right.
Still, yellowstone is, i think, the biggest known potential super volcano right?

Wikipedia says that both the Lake Toba and La Garita Caldera are estimated to have had larger eruptions in the past than Yellowstone (In La Garita's case, twice as large).

Quote:
While we are on topic:
san andreas fault . . how susceptible would that be to somebody who aquired one or more B53 devices?

In general, even nuclear bombs are small potatoes compared to ordinary tectonic tidal forces. A five megaton device was detonated underground near the Aleutian islands, and even though that's on the Ring of Fire there was no increased activity detected. Anthropogenic earthquakes seem to be caused by the long-term stresses of large-scale mining activity, not moments of high energy release.
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Stahlseele
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Hmm . . okay then . .
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Orca
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

koz wrote:
Orca wrote:
You'd want somewhere that has erupted more recently. Incidentally Koumei, stay away from Lake Taupo.


Not to be a geographic pedant, but Koumei lives in Australia, while Lake Taupo is in New Zealand. That's basically about the distance from London to Moscow, for those counting at home.

Oh, I know. I'm a kiwi.
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Dimmy
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Starmaker wrote:

Scroll down for raw tons and tons per square mile.


You mean the infographic that's almost entirely concerned with tomatoes, and somehow manages to spell the word "yield" incorrectly? I saw that. It...kind of makes my point for me.

Because even if you want to focus entirely on the tomato success story, as NatGeo apparently does:

1. The Dutch still haven't been able to increase their production more than 28%. And they needed 10 years of nationwide, highly-intensive, heavily-subsidized effort to get that far. If the nukes start flying tomorrow, or if Yellowstone explodes next week, we're screwed.

2. They still haven't managed to rise above 22nd place in total tonnage -- i.e., the only measure that would actually matter if millions of people suddenly risked starving to death.

And that's just talking about tomatoes: their best-case scenario. Which is completely inapplicable anyway, because what really matters when you need to feed millions of people isn't (relatively) high-priced vegetables, but the humble cereals...and apparently this Dutch techno-magic doesn't actually work for that.

This is basically "marijuana hobbyist grow-rooms" on the scale of nation-states, instead of individuals. You can plug in as many LEDs as you want, you can devote every inch of that room to cash-crops instead of feeding your family, you can demand an arbitrarily high price by saying your product is "organic" or "pure" or whatever...and you're still not going to be in the same league as the people who happen to have acres of land and copious sunlight. You're certainly not going to be saving the world from your grow-room if the freaking Sun disappears.


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Dimmy
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

And I'm sorry if I sound like an "alarmist" about this, but I am simply flabbergasted that people who live in a society where riots can occur over a Mulan Schezuan Sauce shortage, apparently believe that in the (admittedly-unlikely) event of the Sun going black, and the rain turning to acid, and half the Continental U.S. getting covered with anywhere from several centimeters to several meters of volcanic dust and grit...

...as we know happened during Yellowstone's Lava Creek eruption...

...it would have no serious impact on their day-to-day lives. Because we have LEDs now, maaaaan. What? Just -- WHAT!?
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angelfromanotherpin
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Dimmy, are you living down to your name or just straw manning? 'Not as severe as people fear' is a pretty far cry from 'no serious impact on their day-to-day lives.'

It's pretty easy to be flabbergasted when you're making up what other people say.
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deaddmwalking
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

It's unlikely to happen in the next 200 years. In the unlikely event that it does happen, it is unlikely to be as severe as some people claim. Current science suggests that we won't have massive global reductions in sunlight. The presence of significant amount of ash in the atmosphere will cause short term problems for things like travel, but the area that is most directly impacted is sparsely populated and we have relatively fast methods of travel. With any type of warning at all, the direct impact to lives will be minimal. The long term impact to society will be minimal. The short term impact will be similar to Mt. Saint Helens - while that was a smaller eruption it happened in a more populated place and was very much a surprise.
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tussock
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Larger normal volcanic eruptions in world history are all associated with famines, disease, and complete social collapse, because they can drop global temperature by 1C or more and the climate takes five to ten years to recover, which causes harvest failures and an extended inability to replace stockpiles of edibles, which creates disease and war.

The year without summer from Tambora was about 120 km^3 of ejecta, that's the only recent one on that scale (1815), that caused millions to starve and was likely the primary cause of the cholera epidemics that persisted afterward.

But super volcanoes are an order of magnitude larger. Yellowstone and Taupo put out 500 to 2500 km^3 each time. The last big Taupo eruption was 22600 years ago, but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oruanui_eruption has significant ash deposits 1000 km to the west, and hundreds of meters of fresh rock in the immediate area.

Like, it's cool to understand that Yellowstone isn't due for a really big one, and nor is anywhere else, Taupo is only modestly hot, but to suggest that they wouldn't be severe and make problems for the food supply seems foolish, especially Yellowstone when the ash would blanket most of the United States food production areas. Whenever these things do happen it's going to be extremely bad for everyone.
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erik
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

tussock wrote:
Like, it's cool to understand that Yellowstone isn't due for a really big one, and nor is anywhere else


Well, fuck. Now we are all doomed.
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Maj
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 2:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

deaddmwalking wrote:
The short term impact will be similar to Mt. Saint Helens - while that was a smaller eruption it happened in a more populated place and was very much a surprise.


Yes and no. We lived really close at the time of the eruption. It was a surprise in that we didn't know when exactly the mountain was going to blow, but it wasn't a surprise because the mountain had been highly active for two months before the final eruption. Half a month before the eruption, WA declared a state of emergency and created a forced evacuation zone around the volcano that people were actually fined or jailed for [being caught] entering.

During Irma, I asked my mom what kind of natural disaster was the easiest to deal with, and her choice - and she's lived through a lot - was volcano because "you have so much time to prepare."
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RobbyPants
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 16, 2017 6:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

McConnel suggests writing in Sessions to replace Moore. Currently, Moore trails jones by 12 points.
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Hiram McDaniels
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 17, 2017 12:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

RobbyPants wrote:
McConnel suggests writing in Sessions to replace Moore. Currently, Moore trails jones by 12 points.


Dems keep trying to get red voters in AL to swing for Doug Jones, which is dumb. They should be trying to split the red vote by encouraging write in votes for Luther strange.

On the other hand, the popular theory is that gop leaders want to move Jeff sessions back to senate, so orange turdlord can appoint an AG willing to axe the Russia investigation and prosecute his political opponents. So my worry there is the possibility that a write in candidate will actually prevail.
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MGuy
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Hiram McDaniels wrote:
RobbyPants wrote:
McConnel suggests writing in Sessions to replace Moore. Currently, Moore trails jones by 12 points.


Dems keep trying to get red voters in AL to swing for Doug Jones, which is dumb. They should be trying to split the red vote by encouraging write in votes for Luther strange.

On the other hand, the popular theory is that gop leaders want to move Jeff sessions back to senate, so orange turdlord can appoint an AG willing to axe the Russia investigation and prosecute his political opponents. So my worry there is the possibility that a write in candidate will actually prevail.
I don't believe the Dem hierarchy is very good at delivering messages to right wing voters so whether or not the party splits is out of their hands and I 'really' doubt that your average Right wing voter (mostly older people) would really break with tradition and do a write in. Write ins (apparently) are more of a Left Wing/Independent voter thing. It would be great if Dems could pull off a win in AL but, that being said getting them to vote blue would be the only way for that to happen. From what I've heard (anyone can correct me if I've heard wrong) is that it wouldn't matter if you split the red vote because AL is 'so' red that even with a split vote there aren't enough Dems in most of the areas to bring about a Blue result even if the party fractures. If too few of the disillusioned Red voters do not turn blue then a Rep will win by default (likely Moore).
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