Election 2020

[MGuy]

Trump was unique in that he was already famous AND was willing to say the quiet racist parts out loud. So even though he wasn't a career Republican the fact that he was independently wealthy and famous enough to basically run his own campaign without the waiting purses of the Republican establishment or their handlers by and large is what made him ultimately a success. While the press may be acting indignant when it comes to Trump now it's obvious that they helped him in in 2016. I don't think they can just produce another Trump. At least not intentionally. I don't even think that if Trump was 'useful' to them he could've done what he did. To be 'useful' to the establishment there's a good portion of your soul you have to have given away while rubbing elbows with the elite. Whether it is because you are ambitious and want to make it to the top or you're trying to compromise and compromise until you're so empty that you don't represent a threat to the system you are just not going to be 'Trump' after that. That is a both sides issue by the way as we see how they will treat outsiders breaking in on their territory. Just like how establishment Dems will openly stand in defiance against AOC who basically came in off the streets and isn't willing to kiss enough ass to satisfy the powers that be Trump was derided throughout the entire primary process and still made it out the end with a success. Any establishment person who made the necessary deals or was just in it out of ambition would not have challenged the rest of the clown car as directly as Trump did.

I think there's more to it than that though. The problem the Republicans had that the Dems didn't have is that they created wackos who vote. Trump voters are basically just another stage of the Tea Baggers(Party) that they grew during the Obama years. It's those people who pushed representatives that were Tea Baggers themselves that made it extra difficult for them to openly accept some of the sweetheart deals Obama was willing to give them during his time in office. What's worse is that unlike the Dems the Republicans didn't all file out of the running simultaneously to back a single candidate like what happened with Biden. The vote was split in their primaries for too long and so Trump managed to ride into candidacy with less than half of republican votes during his primary. Despite the whole Tea Bagger movement being an Astroturf campaign move in order to rattle up the racists to oppose Obama it still blew up in their faces when Trump rolled around. Now they've been forced to largely back the wacko they put in office. Ultimately these wackos don't actually damage anything that Republicans largely care about so I say 'blew up in their face' but they are more like a stubbed toe than anything that meaningfully threatens them. Trump is very clearly a catastrophically bad person to have in charge considering that he's personally an idiot but they still got a good deal of their priorities done.

Personally I think all Republicans are wackos so I should make clear that by wacko I'm thinking random guy with barely any connections with the Republican establishment who rides in and is able force the party to bend the knee to them. I'm not thinking that standard Republicans count. If they get another guy in I'm thinking that it is going to be a more standard republican who just is allowed to be 'more' openly garbage than people would have accepted maybe back in 2012. We're set for 4 years of a Biden administration where little is going to get done to reverse the course of this nation's troubles and its going to be done with it being established that none of the Republicans have to accept that the Dem's time in power is legitimate. So when they tell their people that they are suffering (and they will be) because of Dem leadership they will have more reason to come out strong for any Republican that steps up because they got cheated 'this' time.

This situation also has other consequences. The fact that this election has been so heavily called into question means that the Right will be even more galvanized to reject any proposal to fix the electoral system. Not that they wouldn't have opposed it in general but the hill is going to be even steeper for the foreseeable future. The election fraud claims now are going to be bolstered and the largely republican local governments will probably have even more leeway than before to disenfranchise people. Considering that the dems have lost so many of the courts there's less of a chance of all but the most egregious moves to disenfranchise people. Lastly I think that an argument could be made that they could get away with running Trump or a member of his family in 2024. I personally don't think Trump himself is going to run again. I think that his family might. If for no other reason than to make a pitch that'll be basically putting money into their pockets from their would be voters again.

[Josh_Kablack]

Georgia lawyer accidentally typos the truth his about election fraud lawsuit:


https://www.abajournal.com/news/article ... of-perjury

[Kaelik]

Trump was recorded asking for Georgia to "find" 11k votes.

Wow, sure wish there was a way to remove a sitting president for uh..... just openly trying to throw out election results and make himself dictator. I mean, no possible way exists, we just have to wait three months from election to inauguration with absolutely nothing to do in that time if there proves to be some kind of problem.

[MGuy]

Removing a president? On Pelosi's watch?! Over her dead body.

[Thaluikhain]

Removing a president? On Pelosi's watch?! Over her dead body.

Ok, not advocating this, because that's both against the forum rules in general and also especially a really amazingly bad idea in this particular case, but removing a president seems likely to be literally over quite a few dead bodies.

Of politicians, that is, not the usual deaths plus this year's covid.

[Kaelik]

Are democrats useless cowards who refuse to do any opposition? Yes. Should they impeach Trump again right now for his georgia shit even though it won't remove him? Yes. But in this case I was not in fact criticizing the democratic leadership for being the useless cowards they are.

There really is no way to remove the president literally no matter what he does. There will always be 34 senators who don't want to remove the president even if he is just randomly committing murders and ignoring all the laws as a natural consequence of our party system. All presidents are just termed dictators who have consecutively decided to not to act on their dictator powers.

I'm also criticizing the system where we have an election and then give the loser three months to fuck things up before the election kicks in.

Democrats are often horrible failures even in the things they actually do care about but in this specific case all the problems are essential parts of our system that no one can change.

[MGuy]

I only specifically named Pelosi because she has taken a stance for many years specifically against doing anything to sitting presidents. Of course (in this political climate especially) a president isn't going to be removed. Trump really pushed things as far as he could and still didn't get removed.

[Josh_Kablack]

Hey Kaelik,

You wanna weigh on on the legal angle of what looks to my layman's eyes like a State Senate Coup that just happened here in PA ?

[Kaelik]

Hey Kaelik,

You wanna weigh on on the legal angle of what looks to my layman's eyes like a State Senate Coup that just happened here in PA ?

My legal opinion is prohibited by the forum rules.

[The Adventurer's Almanac]

It's prohibited by forum rules... but still legal?

[Koumei]

Kaelik's legal opinion is his opinion as a legal professional, as in a lawyer. Not "his opinion which he is legally allowed to hold" (although this is also true, you can legally have any opinion if you don't act on it), and not "his opinion, which is for an action which is legal".

Similar to how being legally blind is the legal recognition of blindness as a disability, not the implication you can be illegally blind.

[Kaelik]

What koumei said. My opinion as a lawyer on the law is my legal opinion.

But also the forum rules have very little to do with what is legal or illegal. While I personally advocate that that the death penalty violates the 8th amendment, many lawyers and most sc justices disagree with me. They would argue that Trump scheduling executions of criminals convicted and sentenced to death is "legal." But it would break forum rules to advocate for those executions even if they are legal.

But to figure out my legal opinion I would recommend reading article 1 of the pa constitution, especially section 2.

[Kaelik]

Seems almost certain that democrats won both seats in Georgia.

Worth remembering that Joe Manchin will ABSOLUTELY destroy any attempt to help people, with a VERY few exceptions. It's likely that we might get COVID relief that is something like 2k checks and state aid, but not like the 2k a month retroactive bill. We will probably get $15 minimum wage. Probably. Maybe Manchin or Sinema will veto that.

One thing democrats SHOULD do but won't, that they might be able to get Manchin board with (or at least as likely as they are any other democrat) is to make DC and Puerto Rico states, and legislate multimember districts for the House to end all gerrymandering. And then also write comprehensive automatic registration and zero ID laws for federal elections. These are all things they can do with 51 votes where Manchin doesn't have any pretend messaging or ideological objections, and his only objection is desire to preserve his personal power.

But plenty of other democrats would also be risking their personal power to pass these laws. Pelosi's control of the house requires the house to be filled with octogenarian centrists who got into office in the 80s and 90s and stayed their in their packed gerrymandered seats forever. The filibuster is a way for all sorts of democrats to make absurd demands. Ending it to pass legislation and then making it easier for democrats to win elections suddenly makes a lot of votes not needed for every bill.

So just remember when none of these things happen, they didn't just happen because Joe Manchin, they also didn't happen because Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer and Dick Durbin and Jim Clyburn also didn't want them to happen.

[Kaelik]

Joe Manchin and Chris Coons announcing their plans to vote no on all laws that Mitch McConnell doesn't approve of the day after we finish electing democrats in Georgia is extremely fucking Democratic Party.

[Kaelik]

The Stop the Steal protestors breaking through the barricade and invading congress while the cops stand by and watch the day after democrats win the senate is also extremely Republican Party.

EDIT: Police have started blocking doors in riot gear to keep them physically out, but as yet storming past the walls at the perimeter has not caused cops to actually use any of their rubber bullets or tear gas or start running over protestors. Can't imagine why.

[Kaelik]

Just a regular day in congress.

[Hiram McDaniels]

Can't imagine why.

Some of those that work forces...
Are the same that storm Congress.

[nockermensch]

Just a regular day in congress.

Yeah, that's America having a normal one in 2021.

I bet with my friends that nothing will be done about this clear-cut case of Sedition and Trump will be free to do more damage until Jan 20th. Really hoping you guys prove me wrong.

[MGuy]

As far as I can tell people are the top do not want to go after people from prior administrations. Bush definitely committed real crimes in his time as president and multiple nations, including our own, have paid the price for it. Not only did Obama say immediately that he did not intend to look into it but Bush's reputation has been rehabilitated in that time. Trump is a unique case though. Since he is not a career politician and is also personally an idiot he may not qualify for that protection. He is already facing multiple law suits that he can't be pardoned from so if there are consequence consequences it might be from that and not the stunt he pulled today.

[Prak]

I mean, honestly, it's because the Dems and Reps are basically on the same side, that of capitalism and personal power. Remember that Obama killed plenty of civilians and deported plenty of immigrants in his term, just like Bush, not to mention, condoning brutal police actions in response to peaceful protests for civil rights. While there is substantive difference between the two parties, it's not a lot, and in general, pols prefer to protect their power and reputations over condemning the crimes of their fellows, because ultimately, both sides have the same goal, and that goal has nothing to do with representing us.

[Thaluikhain]

I bet with my friends that nothing will be done about this clear-cut case of Sedition and Trump will be free to do more damage until Jan 20th. Really hoping you guys prove me wrong.

Pretty safe bet. Mind you, I can't really blame people if they are letting this slide because they are afraid of massive retaliation, if not in the form of a civil war, but a huge spike in hate crimes and/or assassination attempts. Not saying that's the only motive, though, or that it's the correct response, but it's at least somewhat defensible.

[Korwin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eZPECrpRHk
10:30 Republican (Senator?) is predicting the breakup of the Republican party.

Possible or not?

[Kaelik]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5eZPECrpRHk
10:30 Republican (Senator?) is predicting the breakup of the Republican party.

Possible or not?

There's a real sense in which the regular oligarch lovers and the MAGA ragers are different parts off the party and the republican party does electorally better when those two groups are working together. However, they aren't going to break apart.

Situation A is that the MAGA ragers who have been easily co-opted by the oligarchs over and over for half a 60 years suddenly grow wings and take off in a beautiful flight to abandon to the republican party. Call me skeptical.

Situation B is that the conservative elite oligarchs just cannot handle the MAGA ragers doing VIOLENCE and brown shirting around, and their principles force them to reject fascism (after courting it non stop for decades) and they refuse to be a part of the republican party.

Situation C is that the MAGA ragers are duped by some new oligarch lover and the party stays together.

Situation D is that the oligarchs just accept that fascism is how they get to keep being rich oligarchs.

We have seen several examples throughout history that Situation C and D are very common and A and B almost never happen. I don't know if we get C or D, but I'm very sure we get one of them.

[Kaelik]

The House will now adjourn until after the inauguration and the Senate until January 19th.

In case you were wondering if fascist mobs taking over the capital building might cause Nancy Pelosi to rethink her "let's just wait, we shouldn't do literally anything to remove Trump or attempt to forestall a coup."

Chuck at least specifically calling for Trump to be removed or impeached. Always hard to tell if he's just much better than Pelosi or if has more room to posture since he's the minority leader, but it's good to have someone with power in the democrats saying it at least.

[deaddmwalking]

While there is substantive difference between the two parties, it's not a lot, and in general, pols prefer to protect their power and reputations over condemning the crimes of their fellows, because ultimately, both sides have the same goal, and that goal has nothing to do with representing us.

This sentence is paradoxical. Substantive means: having a firm basis in reality and therefore important, meaningful, or considerable. If there are considerable differences between the two parties, it is a lot.

The Democratic party believes if administering the laws of the country even when they don't agree with those laws. During Obama's term, there was only a narrow period where there was a governmental trifecta, and it was never a 'filibuster proof majority'. Without breaking the laws, there's no way to get to where you want to go.

There are things that Biden will be able to do early in 2021. For example, the stimulus checks that the Republican Senate refused to pass can be passed using the reconciliation process between House and Senate - which doesn't require actually passing a new law so can't be held hostage by a filibuster. The reconciliation process can be passed with a simple majority.

Now, maybe getting rid of the filibuster is worth doing - knowing that you could do that legally. But the Senate is heavily weighted toward favoring Republicans. Do you think Manchin will win reelection in 2024? How about John Tester? Even with 2 Democratic pick-up opportunities in 2022 (PA, WI), control of the Senate is likely to change sooner rather than later. So that's one of those things that definitely will come back to bite you before long. Undoing everything you accomplish now becomes a lot easier if the filibuster doesn't exist...

I'm confident that the current Republican Party will continue to try to lie, cheat, and steal. But I don't think that ignoring the rule of law is the right response.

And sometimes that means what you can achieve is limited by what kind of coalition you can build. There's a lot of support for SOCIALISM in the Democratic party, but not a lot of support for COMMUNISM. Things like Social Security and Medicare are good programs and they make people's lives better. And they could be better programs - but the fact that they still exist despite repeated Republican attempts to dismantle any social program for the past 90 years is a 'substantive difference'. I don't expect the Green New Deal to be perfect any more than I think Social Security is perfect, but I think we're actually going to see some legislation along those lines. I also think that major financial help in the form of stimulus and student loan forgiveness are possibilities - and those are things that can really help the economy - which could help expand the Democratic majority.

There's a narrow window of opportunity to do some good, but there isn't carte blanche ability to pass whatever legislation you want. Changing the system requires agreement from the minority party which won't happen.