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Brexistentialism
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Kaelik
ArchDemon of Rage


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 11862

PostPosted: Mon Jul 18, 2016 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Koumei wrote:
It seems very frequent that a situation crops up where the EU hadn't planned for something happening and it later on bites them in the ass. Like "what to do if there's a huge financial crisis that is spreading through multiple countries in the EU" back when they panicked and tried to convince wealthy countries "Don't worry you won't have to bail anyone out!" while telling in-crisis countries "You can't leave, someone can bail you out! That's why you joined!"

Not including "A process for kicking someone out of the club" seemed like a really obvious and stupid mistake. Having that there would really solve this problem as Germany could in fact say "You have until X to either execute Article 50 or make the formal declaration that you are not doing it. Otherwise you get a Dishonourable Discharge and instead of negotiations, we just flat-out treat you the same as Kuwait*."

That would at least force the UK to do something and stop dicking everyone around.

*If it turns out Kuwait actually does have some kind of reasonable trade deal with the EU, then substitute in some other country that is not even remotely part of the EU and doesn't have bullying power or kind-of-friends status and is 100% "Someone else".


1a) The EU does have a process for kicking people out. It just nominally only applies when they do something really bad, which is why it nominally doesn't apply to the current situation with the UK.

1b) The process is really hard, because of course it is, if it was really easy for one asshole country to just drive another one out of the EU because they were angry, then the EU would be worthless.

2) Germany basically did say "Execute Article 50 by date Y (No mention whatsoever of the fact that Parliament could decide not to leave, because that would undermine our shitty argument) or we will totally.... uh.... Well we will decided that you did it!" But people mostly don't care because: a) That date is in the future, not the present, so there is still time for the UK to do something so Germany won't have to actually carry through on their threat and b) See 1a and 1b, Germany really doesn't want to be in a position of actually having to carry through on their threat, because they have very little hope of accomplishing that at all.
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DrPraetor
Knight-Baron


Joined: 02 Apr 2009
Posts: 768

PostPosted: Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/14/world/europe/scotland-uk-independence-referendum.html

Under one proposed nationality law for an independent Scotland, I would qualify for Scots citizenship since my grandfather was born in Glasgow.

This seems like a good time to check around: I know a bunch of Britisher financial types are relocating to Eire. Is anyone moving or otherwise disrupted?
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FrankTrollman
Serious Badass


Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Posts: 26679

PostPosted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 8:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Right now it's all Calvinball. No one knows what the British government plans to do, and Theresa May claims that she not only doesn't have to have a clear plan but that the court's findings that there actually has to be a vote of some kind in parliament for or against whatever plan they eventually put forward is poppycock.

The government is threatening Scotland that they will have to apply for EU membership from outside because go fuck yourself, but there's no particular reason to believe that is true. If Scotland asked to have the UK's seat in the EU, the EU would probably just give it to them.

So the bottom line is that no one knows whether everyone is going to get kicked out of the UK in 2019 or how badly all the trade fuckups are going to go. It's going to be bad, and the British Pound has already lost a lot of value without the kind of increase in exports that normally comes with. But the other shoe has not dropped. Theresa May's democratically illegitimate government has not presented there plan to the European Commission, so we haven't even gotten to the part where she issues her demands and the nations of Europe tell her to stuff them up her ass.

-Frank
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Hadanelith
Journeyman


Joined: 27 Aug 2011
Posts: 135

PostPosted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 10:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

Theresa May is very firm that Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. Whether that actually happens is up for debate, and what happens afterwards is a matter of wild speculation.
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SlyJohnny
Knight-Baron


Joined: 23 Jan 2012
Posts: 662

PostPosted: Sat Mar 18, 2017 12:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote Add User to Ignore List

My girlfriend and I have discussed the possibility of escaping this sinking ship to Scotland. I have no idea how citizenship would work, though. I imagine they'll want British expats to have lived in Scotland for years.
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