Election 2016

nockermensch · Post by **nockermensch** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:11 am

Bah, I gotta sleep, and the situation doesn't look good. The best case scenario right now is a slight Hillary win, which is already kind of depressing.

I sure hope I don't wake up tomorrow with you guys under Trump. Good luck.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:13 am

Well, scratch that: Clinton's firewall collapsed, and Trump is probably going to win, with Republicans holding the House, Senate, and shortly thereafter the Supreme Court. Clinton is going to win the popular vote by less than polls predicted, but she's probably still going to win it.

Voss · Post by **Voss** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:27 am

The fuck, Ohio?
Well, now I feel nauseous.

Alright, BBC is interviewing some Evangelical fuck (Falwell Junior), and apparently it's officially OK to grope women, because Evangelicals believe that we are all sinners.

angelfromanotherpin · Post by **angelfromanotherpin** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:29 am

Dow futures are down 600 points due to Trump anxiety.

Covent · Post by **Covent** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:37 am

Trump is pulling ahead...

I don't know what to say.

MGuy · Post by **MGuy** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:40 am

Well if I'm reading this thing correctly it looks like Ohio may have made it for the Donald. If he only needs 102 it looks like he's going to get that and more.

Voss · Post by **Voss** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:44 am

Covent wrote:Trump is pulling ahead...

I don't know what to say.

Gaps actually closing a bit with Virginia and Colorado (131-168). Trump actually started the evening ahead, because a lot of his states are smaller rural pops that lead to a quicker count. Most the remaining states are going to be stupidly close or democrat strongholds (Cali).

That said, it is worrisome, because the PA attorney general (or somebody) said turnout was up to around 80%, which is both unprecedented and worrisome, as we've got a lot of uneducated white males to fuck things up.

angelfromanotherpin · Post by **angelfromanotherpin** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:44 am

Covent wrote:Trump is pulling ahead...

I don't know what to say.

I think the appropriate words are "I am going outside to vomit from terror."

MGuy · Post by **MGuy** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:48 am

So how often do 3rd party candidates get 3-4% of the vote in so many states? Anybody know the history of that or where I could find some easy to gloss over comparisons?

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:49 am

YOU HAD ONE JOB.

Covent · Post by **Covent** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:49 am

My whole family is huddled in one room right now in terror. Seriously my mother who is 63 is comparing this to how she felt during "duck and cover" exercises in grade school.

Mask_De_H · Post by **Mask_De_H** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:50 am

Ancient History wrote:YOU HAD ONE JOB.

None of us is as dumb as all of us

Grek · Post by **Grek** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:51 am

It's basically down to Florida. Whoever gets Florida is almost certainly President.

Mask_De_H · Post by **Mask_De_H** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:54 am

Grek wrote:It's basically down to Florida. Whoever gets Florida is almost certainly President.

2000 all over again.

Voss · Post by **Voss** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:55 am

Covent wrote:My whole family is huddled in one room right now in terror. Seriously my mother who is 63 is comparing this to how she felt during "duck and cover" exercises in grade school.

It does have similar levels of abject stupidity. I remember mine, simply because we were also told that since we were on the top floor, we probably wouldn't make it to the fallout shelter in the basement.

Oh good, with 77% counted, she's leading in PA by 3 points. Something.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 3:55 am

MGuy wrote:Well if I'm reading this thing correctly it looks like Ohio may have made it for the Donald. If he only needs 102 it looks like he's going to get that and more.

Clinton did not need Ohio or Florida. In fact, we always knew that she was probably going to lose Ohio and that Florida would be a toss up. The real surprise tonight is the complete collapse of Clinton's firewall; she was the favorite in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and she is losing every single one of those states.

But it's basically over at this point. Considering the current state of the race and the votes left to count, a Clinton victory would be... statistically astronomical. Her support among white voters collapsed harder than everyone expected. She didn't beat Obama among college-educated whites, at least not where she needed to. She didn't even beat Trump with women by as large a margins as everyone thought. There was a latino surge, but that means fuck all because it happened in states that don't matter. African American turnout is down, partly because of successful suppression (North Carolina). Clinton's coalition was... shit.

Voss · Post by **Voss** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:01 am

Politico just called Florida for the Crazy, though the BBC isn't ready to call it.

MGuy · Post by **MGuy** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:03 am

Florida seems to have gone Red so there's that.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:03 am

It's been pretty obviously red for awhile. Weren't enough votes left to flip it for at least an hour now, media is just reluctant to call it because it's Florida.

The tl;dr right now is that Clinton wins Wisconsin, Michigan, AND Pennsylvania or she's done. She's projected to lose all of them by various margins. There's also bizarro worlds in which she loses one, holds the tiny blue states like Nevada or New Hampshire, and snipes a red state somehow.

Covent · Post by **Covent** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:10 am

I am going to drink a beer and may call in sick tomorrow...

Voss · Post by **Voss** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:16 am

DSMatticus wrote:It's been pretty obviously red for awhile. Weren't enough votes left to flip it for at least an hour now, media is just reluctant to call it because it's Florida.

The tl;dr right now is that Clinton wins Wisconsin, Michigan, AND Pennsylvania or she's done. She's projected to lose all of them by various margins. There's also bizarro worlds in which she loses one, holds the tiny blue states like Nevada or New Hampshire, and snipes a red state somehow.

Who are you watching? I'm seeing the opposite in PA (49-47), though Wisconsin and Michigan look bad.

Ugh. I'm so fucking tired of these fuckwits talking about how his 'plain speaking' connected with them and other voters. Can't lie, if you talk plain and look the other man in eye, right? Stupid fucking fuckers.

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:19 am

Clinton is currently ahead with votes counted, but demographically the remaining votes to be counted should favor Trump. It's the closest of the three, but smart money says it's Trump's.

Here's the NY Times estimate, for example.

Mechalich · Post by **Mechalich** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:24 am

I'm not sure that's true, while several small countries in PA remain outstanding, several larger urban counties have also not been completely counted. I think Clinton can retain PA in a squeaker. She's also gaining ground in Michigan with a good chunk of the Detroit area yet to report. Wisconsin is the one of the three that looks the worst at the moment.

Voss · Post by **Voss** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:27 am

Heh, well fuck. That's quite a damn wiggle.

In other (Obviously completely unrelated news), apparently the Canadian immigration website has crashed.

...You Lost Me · Post by **...You Lost Me** » Wed Nov 09, 2016 4:50 am

And we've got the new wave of people blaming the DNC for rigging primaries and not electing Sanders. I cannot believe this.