Election 2016

angelfromanotherpin · Post by **angelfromanotherpin** » Sun Mar 20, 2016 6:47 pm

It's tribal identity. People who are in the tribe 'just know' that supply-side economics works. If that shit isn't self-evident to you, you're some kind of filthy lib. You aren't a lib, are you? Why would you hate America, Jesus, and your mom?

There's a whole brigade of people paid to explain why supply-side bullshit isn't responsible for any of its associated failures, usually to do with not having supply-sided hard enough. The explanations are also bullshit, but they provide a cognitive fig leaf for the faithful.

Blicero · Post by **Blicero** » Sun Mar 20, 2016 7:21 pm

Does anyone have numbers on how many Ohio Democrats voted as Republicans in the primary? (Presumably, they did this to try to help Kasich beat Trump.) My family is a bunch of hardcore Berners, and they keep going on about how Sander was stabbed in the back in Ohio by progressives who decided his cause was lost and voted for Kasich. They know like five or six people who did this, but those people are obviously anecdotal.

The Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live ... -tuesday-3) is saying that 15.6% of early-voting Democrats voted as Republicans in Cuyahoga County. But that is just one county, and it is only early-voters.

Kaelik · Post by **Kaelik** » Sun Mar 20, 2016 8:44 pm

I have difficulty imagining how you stab someone in a back by not rescuing them from that 5000000000000000 gun wielding thugs who have already killed them and are currently burning their corpse while you are alone naked in the woods.

Which is to say that of course Sander's campaign was already lost, and Ohio progressives weren't going to save it even if I'm wrong.

Blicero · Post by **Blicero** » Mon Mar 21, 2016 12:02 am

Kaelik wrote:I have difficulty imagining how you stab someone in a back by not rescuing them from that 5000000000000000 gun wielding thugs who have already killed them and are currently burning their corpse while you are alone naked in the woods.

Which is to say that of course Sander's campaign was already lost, and Ohio progressives weren't going to save it even if I'm wrong.

This is what I have repeatedly told them, but it does not seem to be taking.

Koumei · Post by **Koumei** » Mon Mar 21, 2016 3:27 am

I don't really see how there's anything we can tell you that they're going to listen to. You've told them the fact of the matter and they refuse to listen, there isn't some secret answer that makes them go "Oh, of course, actually that makes sense".

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Mon Mar 21, 2016 8:01 pm

There is a Bernie bubble that a lot of Bernie supporters that post on the internet live in. Bernie gets a lot more chatter in the chat-o-sphere and it creates an odd echo chamber effect, and a general unwillingness to respond to facts about the race.

Let's take tomorrow's Democratic primaries: Utah, Idaho, and Arizona. That's Bernie country. It would not be weird for Bernie to take all three. In fact, Bernie's demographic targets are to take all three of them. Arizona by 10, Utah by 15, and Idaho by 21. Hillary could lose all those races by those margins and that would merely be the demographic expectations of playing that part of the game in Bernie country and not move the dial one way or the other. But it's way worse than that for Bernie - lots of states have already voted and Hillary has beaten her demographic targets in most of them. Some of the best Hillary states have voted, but Hillary got more votes out of them than her electoral demographic targets, if Bernie hits all his remaining targets, Hillary still wins. For Bernie to be making progress at all, he needs to be hitting above his weight and exceeding his demographic targets.

The time that Bernie Sanders could lose a state and call it a victory because the later part of the map contains some Bernie-friendly territory has already passed. And Bernie Sanders didn't get the votes he needed to reach his demographic targets in enough states to be on target. He can say with some justification that this is the point he'd expect to be behind, but not by over three hundred delegates. He is about 120 delegates short of where he needs to be, if he got all of the delegates awarded tomorrow, he'd wouldn't get to where he needs to be (since the amount he's supposed to get will also increase by 74 at the same time).

But actual polls show Hillary getting at least half the vote in Arizona. Which is the opposite of what Bernie needs. The polling has to be off by Michigan levels in pretty much every contest from here on out. And in the same direction.

And yet, if you talk to the Sanders crew over at Daily Kos, the fact that Utah is Bernie country is enough by itself to turn this ship around.

-Username17

sendaz · Post by **sendaz** » Tue Mar 22, 2016 11:38 am

As an American living over here in the UK it is interesting to watch a lot of this and see the Brits reactions to some of it.

Trump especially stumps them. A lot of the Brits in our area think he is a joke and can't possibly take the presidency, but there is a strong streak of folk who feel he is just saying what everyone is thinking but is too afraid to say it themselves.

Blasted · Post by **Blasted** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 4:28 am

Britain First has a bunch of policies which are only a bad toupee away from Trump, so I'm not sure how they don't understand that a right wing populist can generate votes.

Koumei · Post by **Koumei** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:53 am

Boris Johnson is a thing over there in the UK. In fact, he's not a thing, he's a person, but him becoming Mayor of London actually happened. Now sure, he's one of the major proponents of "Trump is a moron and everything he says is terrible", but this doesn't change how he's a joke who became elected. In the UK.

Mechalich · Post by **Mechalich** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 6:55 am

So, the last multi-state primary night for a while is in the books with a bunch of lopsided results. Trump took winner-take-all Arizona, but got crushed by Cruz in Utah, so the Republicans continue the razor's edge dance of Trump vs. contested convention. The lesson here being that Mormons really don't like Trump, but that's not really something Cruz can use to build any momentum.

For the democrats Clinton won big in Arizona, while Sanders drew massive support in the Idaho and Utah caucuses. Even with those huge wins, it looks like he'll only make up a handful of delegates on the night against Clinton which doesn't mathematically help him in any significant way. It does put him in a position to achieve big wins in the three upcoming caucuses in Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington and build some momentum for Wisconsin, so he has a good reason to remain in for a full month more at least.

So really, no major narrative changes and the slog continues. I think this means that when things do finally breakthrough people are going to take it pretty hard on both sides.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 7:46 am

Sanders got the kind of massive wins he needs in Utah and Idaho, winning by like fifty plus points in both states. Beat the polls, beat the demographic targets. It was everything he wanted and needed to get out of Idaho and Utah, proving once again that Bernie Sanders can win big in small caucuses filled with white liberals. But... and there's always a but, he lost by 19 points in the Arizona primary. That's the biggest state of the night, and the one that looks most like the rest of the country. He didn't beat the polling, he missed his demographic target by 29.

Sanders is walking away with 52% of the delegates awarded so far, which is a "win" in that it is more than half and shrinks Hillary's lead. But it's smaller than his demographic target of victory for the night (56%), and much smaller than what he actually needed to make progress.

The best news for Sanders is Washington State this Saturday. It's a caucus full of white liberals so Sanders should win by a blowout. But it's also a big state that awards a lot of delegates. His demographic target is a win by 17, but if he gets anything like the wins he got in Idaho he could actually make up some ground (also voting are Hawaii and Alaska, which Marco Rubio didn't remember were part of the country). And of course, he gets to stew in media narratives of momentum for quite a while, because the next few weeks have just a few trickles of states, with Wisconsin and Wyoming being probable Sanders country as well. Clinton country doesn't vote again until April 19th, when New York goes to the polls. In the meantime, the media is going to have nothing but small positive stories to tell about Bernie's electoral performance.

On the Republican side, Trump won Arizona as expected, Cruz got over the magic 50% threshold to get all the delegates for Utah, and American Samoa declared all their delegates uncommitted and will go to the convention with 9 more superdelegates. That's a win for Trump, but it's short of his path to the magic 1237 number. His path to the nomination called for him getting a non-zero number of delegates in both American Samoa and Utah and all of the delegates in Arizona. He got only the third of those, which is the biggest part but still under par.

So on the Democratic side we are still on course for a Hillary victory that is not particularly close. On the Republican side we are on course for Trump going to the convention with a plurality of the pledged delegates but not enough to anoint himself. What that probably means is that there will be a lot of confusion and people trying to block Trump with various skullduggery and then Trump wins on the first ballot anyway to the shock and chagrin of all the Eric Ericsons and Karl Roves and Mitt Romneys in the room. The fact is that a lot of these bonus superdelegates like the delegation from American Samoa and Colorado probably are Trump fans, and will vote Trump on the first ballot. Trump isn't going to need a lot of the uncommitteds to join with him in Cleveland and he'll probably have the magic number.

What's going to be super fun is all the finger pointing and media surprise when we go all the way from June 7th to July 18th thinking that the #NeverTrumps have won and that Trump didn't get the nomination by coming close but missing the mark. And they'll be spinning all kinds of outlandish ideas of bringing in Paul Ryan on a second ballot or throwing it to Kasich or whatever the fuck. And the Trumpers and #NeverTrumpers will be yelling at each other in the comments on RedState and Fox News will be trying to get people to accept Jeb back in the race and shit. And then... Trump will simply win outright on the first ballot. Because the reality is that the superdelegates really are as fascist and racist as the rest of the Republican electorate and won't lockstep vote against him. Then we get to see Mitt Romney storm out of the convention.

Chanes for a riot in Cleveland are very good no matter what scenario plays out there.

-Username17

Mechalich · Post by **Mechalich** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 12:12 pm

I think the fact that the Mormons really, really hate Trump as evidenced by the Utah results - Trump in 3rd at under 15% - might have interesting general election implications. While the democrats still can't really put Utah in play there's quite a few Mormons in both Nevada and Colorado - critical swing states - and Arizona - a state Hillary could certainly contest by trying to mobilize the large Hispanic population. If the 5-10% of voters in those states who are Mormons - a consistently Republican voting block - stay home, that could potentially swing the election all by itself. Those 26 electoral votes are enough that if the democrats just hold the traditional blue states they would win.

It just isn't a good plan to go into an election as a conservative with what is possibly the country's most reliably conservative block aligned against you.

RobbyPants · Post by **RobbyPants** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:04 pm

FrankTrollman wrote:(also voting are Hawaii and Alaska, which Marco Rubio didn't remember were part of the country).

What did I miss, here? Did he just ignore them in his campaigning, or did he say something monumentally stupid?

FrankTrollman wrote:Because the reality is that the superdelegates really are as fascist and racist as the rest of the Republican electorate and won't lockstep vote against him.

Is this something we know about these people, or is this based on how they are picked?

Starmaker · Post by **Starmaker** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 1:45 pm

RobbyPants wrote:
FrankTrollman wrote:(also voting are Hawaii and Alaska, which Marco Rubio didn't remember were part of the country).
What did I miss, here? Did he just ignore them in his campaigning, or did he say something monumentally stupid?

He forgot them in his campaign logo.

Maxus · Post by **Maxus** » Wed Mar 23, 2016 5:25 pm

Mechalich wrote:
It just isn't a good plan to go into an election as a conservative with what is possibly the country's most reliably conservative block aligned against you.

Mormons just don't like Trump's brand of open asshole. He's basically every personality trait they hate about non-mormons rolled into one. They like to -think- they're all good people and many of them are probably pretty nice folks with an awesome pork roast recipe, who just happen to believe and vote for horrible things.

Romney may be stiff and awkward around normal people because he's had so little experience with people who make less than six figures a year, but he gives the impression of being at least well-intentioned.

Trump's an open bully with very little propriety.

erik · Post by **erik** » Sat Mar 26, 2016 1:33 pm

https://www.change.org/p/quicken-loans- ... -in-july-2

I remember when it was being pointed out that current and previous Republican conventions banned guns despite the irony that if they were safe in anyone's hands then especially in the loudest advocates for their safety. I guess enough of them have drunk the koolaid that their sense of stupidity is overriding common sense.

I'm pretty sure the hypocrisy will stand, and the guns ban will stay in effect. I hope so anyway.

name_here · Post by **name_here** » Sat Mar 26, 2016 5:27 pm

Well, the venue can just tell them to fuck off. Second Amendment does not apply to private entities.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Sat Mar 26, 2016 8:13 pm

-Username17

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Sat Mar 26, 2016 11:35 pm

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Sun Mar 27, 2016 3:55 pm

"Donald Trump may be a rat, but I have no desire to copulate with him."
- Ted Cruz, #ratfucking

http://www.mediaite.com/tv/cruz-donald- ... -with-him/

Maxus · Post by **Maxus** » Sun Mar 27, 2016 7:28 pm

So Bernie had a bird land on his podium and it was very sweet. Oh, and he swept Washingston, Alaska, and Hawaii (or as Republicans try to rename it, Kenya).

But seriously. It's all about that bird. Nevermind the 100+ delegates he picked up. The bird.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Sun Mar 27, 2016 7:29 pm

Birdie Sanders has gone viral, ja.

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Sun Mar 27, 2016 8:02 pm

The best one I've seen contrasted Birdie Sanders with the eagle from Trump's photo op.

Schleiermacher · Post by **Schleiermacher** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 12:29 pm

Bernie swept Alaska? That surprises me. Someone care to tell me why it shouldn't?

Pseudo Stupidity · Post by **Pseudo Stupidity** » Mon Mar 28, 2016 1:04 pm

Schleiermacher wrote:Bernie swept Alaska? That surprises me. Someone care to tell me why it shouldn't?

What's probably the biggest news as far as demographics are concerned is that Bernie swept Hawaii, which is less than a quarter white. Do Asians love Bernie or something?